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DETERMINANTS OF INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE BETWEEN ECOWAS AND EUROPEAN UNION
Published 2014-11Subjects: “…Fractional logit model…”
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DETERMINANTS OF INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE BETWEEN ECOWAS AND EUROPEAN UNION
Published 2014-11Subjects: “…Fractional logit model…”
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DETERMINANTS OF RESIDENTIAL HOUSING CHOICE IN LAGOS STATE, NIGERIA
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The Potentials of Urban Rail Transport Development in Ibadan, Nigeria
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Page will reload when a filter is selected or excluded.- Fractional logit model 2 results 2
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- Economic Community of West African States‘ (ECOWAS) total trade has reflected deficit in the last two decades. It was $1.42 billion in 1990, increased to $3.32 billion in 2000 and $6.24 billion in 2009. This trade imbalance in the ECOWAS region can be traced to the dominance of primary over manufactured products in the region‘s exports. However, the imbalance can be reversed with trade in similar products that is Intra-Industry Trade (IIT) between the region and her highest trade partner, (European Union (EU)). Empirical studies have examined IIT among developed countries (horizontal-IIT), while adequate attention has not been paid to it between developing and developed countries (vertical-IIT). This study, therefore, examined the extent and determinants of IIT in both final and intermediate products between ECOWAS and EU. The Augmented Gravity Model, based on Flam-Helpman‘s North-South trade framework, was estimated to determine the factors affecting vertical-IIT between ECOWAS and EU. The model considered income distribution in partner countries, factor endowment, product differentiation, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), relative country size, weighted distance, capital-labour ratio, exchange rate and tariff as determinants of vertical-IIT. The Grubel-Lloyd index, bounded by 0 and 1, was used to compute the dependent variable (extent of vertical-IIT). A closer to one Grubel-Lloyd index implied higher level of IIT. Data were collected from the World Integrated Trade Solution and World Development Indicators from 2001 to 2011. Fractional Logit Regression technique that took note of the nature of the dependent variable was estimated while controlling for heteroscedasticity. The estimations were done for both final and intermediate products. Hausman-test and LM-test were used to confirm the robustness of the model and statistical significance at P≤0.05. Vertical-IIT in both final and intermediate products between ECOWAS and EU were low. Average vertical-IIT in final products between the two regions increased from 0.1 in 2001 to 0.3 in 2011, while that of vertical-IIT in intermediate products increased from 0.1 in 2001 to 0.2 in 2011. Income distribution, factor endowment, products differentiation and FDI improved vertical-IIT in final products. Specifically, if these factors were increased by UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY iii 1.0%, vertical-IIT in final products would improve by 10.0% 4.0%, 4.0% and 11.1%, respectively. However, the coefficients of the weighted distance (-0.02) and tariff (-0.006) were indicative of inverse change in vertical-IIT in final products by 2.0% and 0.06% in response to 1.0% change in the two factors respectively. For the vertical-IIT in intermediate products, 1.0% change in factor endowment, product differentiation, income distribution and relative country size improved vertical-IIT by 5.9%, 2.2%, 4.1%, and 3.7%, respectively. The coefficients of FDI (0.19) implied that vertical-IIT in intermediate products increased by 19.0% in response to 1.0% change in FDI. Product differentiation and foreign direct investment have positive and significant impact on intra-industry trade in final and intermediate products between Economic Community of West African States and European Union. It is important, therefore, to attract more multinational firms into the region. Efforts should also be made to improve on the level of products differentiation in the region. Keywords: Intra-industry trade, Fractional logit model, Intermediate products, products differentiation. Word count: 495 1 results 1
- Economic Community of West African States‘ (ECOWAS) total trade has reflected deficit in the last two decades. It was $1.42 billion in 1990, increased to $3.32 billion in 2000 and $6.24 billion in 2009. This trade imbalance in the ECOWAS region can be traced to the dominance of primary over manufactured products in the region‘s exports. However, the imbalance can be reversed with trade in similar products that is Intra-Industry Trade (IIT) between the region and her highest trade partner, (European Union (EU)). Empirical studies have examined IIT among developed countries (horizontal-IIT), while adequate attention has not been paid to it between developing and developed countries (vertical-IIT). This study, therefore, examined the extent and determinants of IIT in both final and intermediate products between ECOWAS and EU. The Augmented Gravity Model, based on Flam-Helpman‘s North-South trade framework, was estimated to determine the factors affecting vertical-IIT between ECOWAS and EU. The model considered income distribution in partner countries, factor endowment, product differentiation, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), relative country size, weighted distance, capital-labour ratio, exchange rate and tariff as determinants of vertical-IIT. The Grubel-Lloyd index, bounded by 0 and 1, was used to compute the dependent variable (extent of vertical-IIT). A closer to one Grubel-Lloyd index implied higher level of IIT. Data were collected from the World Integrated Trade Solution and World Development Indicators from 2001 to 2011. Fractional Logit Regression technique that took note of the nature of the dependent variable was estimated while controlling for heteroscedasticity. The estimations were done for both final and intermediate products. Hausman-test and LM-test were used to confirm the robustness of the model and statistical significance at P≤0.05. Vertical-IIT in both final and intermediate products between ECOWAS and EU were low. Average vertical-IIT in final products between the two regions increased from 0.1 in 2001 to 0.3 in 2011, while that of vertical-IIT in intermediate products increased from 0.1 in 2001 to 0.2 in 2011. Income distribution, factor endowment, products differentiation and FDI improved vertical-IIT in final products. Specifically, if these factors were increased by UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN iii 1.0%, vertical-IIT in final products would improve by 10.0% 4.0%, 4.0% and 11.1%, respectively. However, the coefficients of the weighted distance (-0.02) and tariff (-0.006) were indicative of inverse change in vertical-IIT in final products by 2.0% and 0.06% in response to 1.0% change in the two factors respectively. For the vertical-IIT in intermediate products, 1.0% change in factor endowment, product differentiation, income distribution and relative country size improved vertical-IIT by 5.9%, 2.2%, 4.1%, and 3.7%, respectively. The coefficients of FDI (0.19) implied that vertical-IIT in intermediate products increased by 19.0% in response to 1.0% change in FDI. Product differentiation and foreign direct investment have positive and significant impact on intra-industry trade in final and intermediate products between Economic Community of West African States and European Union. It is important, therefore, to attract more multinational firms into the region. Efforts should also be made to improve on the level of products differentiation in the region. 1 results 1
- Household income 1 results 1
- Housing price 1 results 1
- Multinomial logit model 1 results 1
- Rail concessioning 1 results 1
- Residential choice 1 results 1
- Residential densities 1 results 1
- The developing world is changing from one of rural villages to that of urban dwellings. The population of Lagos, which stood at 270,000 in 1952/53, rose to 5.69 million in 1991 and was estimated to be 18 million in 2010. This has created excessive demand for housing. Available statistics on housing production showed that between 1974 and 1989, 11422 units of houses were produced. This number fell precipitously to 8162 units between 1994 and 2004. The estimated housing deficit for Lagos in 2010 was 5 million representing 28% of the estimated national housing deficit. The gap between housing delivery and housing demand, engendered by population growth, has necessitated competition and choice making from the available housing alternatives. The literature hardly takes adequate account of the economic and related factors influencing residential housing choice decisions in Third World cities. This study, therefore, investigated the socio-economic determinants of residential housing choice in Lagos, Nigeria. A multinomial logit model, based on the neoclassical consumption framework augmented by hedonic pricing approach, was used to determine the socio-economic determinants of residential housing choice. The specific variables considered were household income, housing price, household size, marital status, ethnicity, gender, and age. The model allowed for the classification of housing units as single-household, multi-household houses, a flat in a block of flats, duplexes, a room in the main building and squatters’ settlements, across high, medium and low density areas. It also has the advantage of comparing the various residential housing choices with the base category (multi-household houses). Cross-sectional data from 4,433 randomly selected rented dwellings across the 20 local government areas in Lagos were used. Diagnostic tests, the variance inflation factor and Box-Cox transformation were used to correct for multicollinearity and functional specification problems. Household income, housing price, household size, marital status and age were the main determinants of the residential housing choice of households. The effects of gender and ethnic variables were not statistically significant. Household income would increase preferences and probabilities for flats, duplexes and single household houses by 7.24, 4.87 and 3.23 times respectively over multi-household houses. The probabilities, however, decreased by 0.02 and 0.85 times for squatters’ settlements and a room in the main building relative to multi-household houses. Households preferences would increase for flats and duplexes by 4.58 and 3.50 times relative to multi-household houses when there is an increase in housing price. The probabilities for squatters’ settlements and a room in the main building are likely to fall by 0.33 and 0.47 times respectively relative to the base category. All these results were statistically significant at the 5.00% level. Other factors such as household size, marital status and age were also statistically significant at the 10.00% level across different residential density areas. Household income and housing price stood out prominently as the major determinants of residential housing choice in Lagos. Economic factors were more important than demographic variables across different residential density areas. Meeting residential needs would require policies aimed at improving incomes and setting appropriate housing prices. 1 results 1
- The goal of efficient transportation in cities requires that all modes should function at their optimal capacities to provide adequate choices for commuters. However, the neglect of the rail transport has been a contributory factor to the persistent mobility crisis prevalent in Nigerian cities. Ibadan once enjoyed intra-urban rail transport services (passenger and freight) until it became moribund. Given the current rate of urban expansion and increased commuting distances within the city, this study investigated the potentials of urban rail transport development as a solution for the urban mobility crisis in Ibadan. The Spatial Interaction Theory and the Public-Private Partnership model provided the conceptual framework. Using a cross-sectional research survey, data were collected from both primary and secondary sources. The Bureau of Public Enterprises provided information on the concessioning procedure for rail transportation in Nigeria. The city was stratified into five major traffic corridors on which a seven-day traffic count was conducted to collect data on commuter threshold capacity. Salter‟s corridor sampling technique was employed in the administration of questionnaire to 642 household heads based on income groups, along the stratified traffic corridors. Data on trip pattern, trip purpose, modal choice, rail potentials, train ride and the desire for the return of intra-urban rail transport; traffic congestion reduction, commuter‟s savings from the use of rail and employment creation were collected. Analysis of variance, multinomial logit and multiple regression models were used in data analysis at p≤0.05. Only 45.5 percent of residents had previously used train as mode of transportation. The threshold capacity for urban rail commuting along the traffic corridors of Podo/Akobo (2135), Lagos Road Toll/Moniya (1610), Bere/Akanran (1542) and Mokola/Ife Road Toll (1214) exceeded the required 1200 threshold capacity. Commuting distance varied from below 5 kilometres (53%) to 35 kilometres (4.8%) within the metropolis. Trips undertaken were mainly to work places (55.6%), shops/markets (26.8%), schools (6.7%), social/multipurpose trips (12.9%). There were significant differences in trips undertaken by the high, medium and low income groups (F= 38.503). Modal choice was significantly affected by auto-ownership, trip by bus, and respondents‟ income (r=0.24). The potential use of the rail transport was a function of occupation, estimated income and trip distance of commuters (R2=0.84). Eighty-four percent of the respondents desired the return of intra-urban rail transport. Perceived potentials of rail transport included reduction in traffic congestion (84.2%), per capita traffic crash rates (76.8%), increased modal choice (68.2%), enhanced commuter savings (57.5%) and employment creation (52.7%). The traffic congestion reduction potential of the rail was high (R2=0.59). Vertical integration approach of Bureau of Public Enterprises in rail concessioning was found to attract prospective private partnership. Intra urban rail transport in Ibadan has very high potentials. There is the need to revitalise intra urban rail transport in the city through public-private partnership. 1 results 1
- Urban rail transport 1 results 1
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