Full Text Available
Note: Clicking the button above will open the full text document at the original institutional repository in a new window.
What Follows the Fall? Investigating The Shifting Landscape of Political Violence in the Wake of Regime Breakdown
While it is commonly argued the prior regime type influences regime breakdown outcomes during contested transitions of power, the observed disparity between two countries with identical prior regime types and distinct post-breakdown results poses a significant challenge to the existing theories. Thi...
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Thesis |
| Published: |
AUC Knowledge Fountain
2024
|
| Subjects: | |
| Tags: |
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1867613424012230657 |
|---|---|
| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Ayoub, Mariam |
| author_browse | Ayoub, Mariam |
| author_facet | Ayoub, Mariam |
| author_sort | Ayoub, Mariam |
| collection | Thesis |
| description | While it is commonly argued the prior regime type influences regime breakdown outcomes during contested transitions of power, the observed disparity between two countries with identical prior regime types and distinct post-breakdown results poses a significant challenge to the existing theories. This thesis navigates into the complexities inherent in the post-breakdown sphere by examining how different modes of regime breakdowns can impact the level and duration of state violence instigated by the incoming regime after the breakdown. Developing a theoretical model that compares and contrasts the political environments created after military coups and popular uprisings, this thesis argues that regimes arising from a military coup are more prone to perpetuate violence in the short and long term compared to regimes emerging from a popular uprising. It then tests the argument using cross-sectional data between 1900 and 2013. Regimes that emerge after breakdowns facilitated by military coups are found to exhibit higher levels of violence compared to those emerging from popular uprisings when the level of state violence is assessed one year after the breakdown. This pattern is consistent even when the level of state violence is assessed five years post-breakdown. However, the analysis reveals that the impact of the mode of breakdown on state violence diminishes over time, becoming less pronounced when tested ten years after the breakdown. Through a lens of realpolitik, this thesis provides a contextualized perspective on the quantitative findings by illustrating the sequence of events surrounding the 2011 popular uprising and the consequential 2013 military coup in Egypt and examining the different levels of violence instigated by the Morsi regime following the uprising and the El-Sisi regime in post-coup Egypt. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:fount.aucegypt.edu:etds-3362 |
| institution | American University in Cairo (Egypt) |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:35:55.364Z |
| license_str | Not specified — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from AUC Knowledge Fountain — bepress |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | AUC Knowledge Fountain |
| publisherStr | AUC Knowledge Fountain |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | AUC Knowledge Fountain — bepress |
| spelling | oai:fount.aucegypt.edu:etds-3362 What Follows the Fall? Investigating The Shifting Landscape of Political Violence in the Wake of Regime Breakdown Ayoub, Mariam While it is commonly argued the prior regime type influences regime breakdown outcomes during contested transitions of power, the observed disparity between two countries with identical prior regime types and distinct post-breakdown results poses a significant challenge to the existing theories. This thesis navigates into the complexities inherent in the post-breakdown sphere by examining how different modes of regime breakdowns can impact the level and duration of state violence instigated by the incoming regime after the breakdown. Developing a theoretical model that compares and contrasts the political environments created after military coups and popular uprisings, this thesis argues that regimes arising from a military coup are more prone to perpetuate violence in the short and long term compared to regimes emerging from a popular uprising. It then tests the argument using cross-sectional data between 1900 and 2013. Regimes that emerge after breakdowns facilitated by military coups are found to exhibit higher levels of violence compared to those emerging from popular uprisings when the level of state violence is assessed one year after the breakdown. This pattern is consistent even when the level of state violence is assessed five years post-breakdown. However, the analysis reveals that the impact of the mode of breakdown on state violence diminishes over time, becoming less pronounced when tested ten years after the breakdown. Through a lens of realpolitik, this thesis provides a contextualized perspective on the quantitative findings by illustrating the sequence of events surrounding the 2011 popular uprising and the consequential 2013 military coup in Egypt and examining the different levels of violence instigated by the Morsi regime following the uprising and the El-Sisi regime in post-coup Egypt. 2024-06-15T07:00:00Z thesis application/pdf https://fount.aucegypt.edu/etds/2320 https://fount.aucegypt.edu/context/etds/article/3362/viewcontent/Mariam_Ayoub_Final_Thesis_Doc.pdf Theses and Dissertations AUC Knowledge Fountain regime breakdown military coup popular uprising state violence |
| spellingShingle | regime breakdown military coup popular uprising state violence Ayoub, Mariam What Follows the Fall? Investigating The Shifting Landscape of Political Violence in the Wake of Regime Breakdown |
| title | What Follows the Fall? Investigating The Shifting Landscape of Political Violence in the Wake of Regime Breakdown |
| title_full | What Follows the Fall? Investigating The Shifting Landscape of Political Violence in the Wake of Regime Breakdown |
| title_fullStr | What Follows the Fall? Investigating The Shifting Landscape of Political Violence in the Wake of Regime Breakdown |
| title_full_unstemmed | What Follows the Fall? Investigating The Shifting Landscape of Political Violence in the Wake of Regime Breakdown |
| title_short | What Follows the Fall? Investigating The Shifting Landscape of Political Violence in the Wake of Regime Breakdown |
| title_sort | what follows the fall investigating the shifting landscape of political violence in the wake of regime breakdown |
| topic | regime breakdown military coup popular uprising state violence |
| url | https://fount.aucegypt.edu/etds/2320 https://fount.aucegypt.edu/context/etds/article/3362/viewcontent/Mariam_Ayoub_Final_Thesis_Doc.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ayoubmariam whatfollowsthefallinvestigatingtheshiftinglandscapeofpoliticalviolenceinthewakeofregimebreakdown |