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Assessing Climate Driven Malaria Variability in Ghana Using a Regional Scale Dynamical Model
An article published by Climate 2017, 5, 20; doi:10.3390/cli5010020
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Climate
2019
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| _version_ | 1867613136603840512 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Asare, Ernest O. Amekudzi, Leonard K. |
| author_browse | Amekudzi, Leonard K. Asare, Ernest O. |
| author_facet | Asare, Ernest O. Amekudzi, Leonard K. |
| author_sort | Asare, Ernest O. |
| collection | Thesis |
| description | An article published by Climate 2017, 5, 20; doi:10.3390/cli5010020 |
| format | Article |
| id | oai:ir.knust.edu.gh:123456789/11790 |
| institution | KNUST (Ghana) |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:31:21.331Z |
| license_str | Not specified — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from KNUSTSpace — Kwame Nkrumah University of Science & Technology (Ghana) |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publishDateRange | 2019 |
| publishDateSort | 2019 |
| publisher | Climate |
| publisherStr | Climate |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | KNUSTSpace — Kwame Nkrumah University of Science & Technology (Ghana) |
| spelling | oai:ir.knust.edu.gh:123456789/11790 Assessing Climate Driven Malaria Variability in Ghana Using a Regional Scale Dynamical Model Asare, Ernest O. Amekudzi, Leonard K. VECTRI malaria EIR surface hydrology An article published by Climate 2017, 5, 20; doi:10.3390/cli5010020 Malaria is a major public health challenge in Ghana and adversely affects the productivity and economy of the country. Although malaria is climate driven, there are limited studies linking climate variability and disease transmission across the various agro-ecological zones in Ghana. We used the VECTRI (vector-borne disease community model of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste) model with a new surface hydrology scheme to investigate the spatio-temporal variability in malaria transmission patterns over the four agro-ecological zones in Ghana. The model is driven using temperature and rainfall datasets obtained from the GMet (Ghana Meteorological Agency) synoptic stations between 1981 and 2010. In addition, the potential of the VECTRI model to simulate seasonal pattern of local scale malaria incidence is assessed. The model results reveal that the simulated malaria transmission follows rainfall peaks with a two-month time lag. Furthermore, malaria transmission ranges from eight to twelve months, with minimum transmission occurring between February and April. The results further reveal that the intra- and inter-agro-ecological variability in terms of intensity and duration of malaria transmission are predominantly controlled by rainfall. The VECTRI simulated EIR (Entomological Inoculation Rate) tends to agree with values obtained from field surveys across the country. Furthermore, despite being a regional model, VECTRI demonstrates useful skill in reproducing monthly variations in reported malaria cases from Emena hospital (a peri urban town located within Kumasi metropolis). Although further refinements in this surface hydrology scheme may improve VECTRI performance, VECTRI still possesses the potential to provide useful information for malaria control in the tropics 2019-11-12T15:00:23Z 2023-04-19T01:23:42Z 2019-11-12T15:00:23Z 2023-04-19T01:23:42Z 2017-03-05 Article Climate 2017, 5, 20; doi:10.3390/cli5010020 https://ir.knust.edu.gh/handle/123456789/11790 en application/pdf Climate |
| spellingShingle | VECTRI malaria EIR surface hydrology Asare, Ernest O. Amekudzi, Leonard K. Assessing Climate Driven Malaria Variability in Ghana Using a Regional Scale Dynamical Model |
| title | Assessing Climate Driven Malaria Variability in Ghana Using a Regional Scale Dynamical Model |
| title_full | Assessing Climate Driven Malaria Variability in Ghana Using a Regional Scale Dynamical Model |
| title_fullStr | Assessing Climate Driven Malaria Variability in Ghana Using a Regional Scale Dynamical Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing Climate Driven Malaria Variability in Ghana Using a Regional Scale Dynamical Model |
| title_short | Assessing Climate Driven Malaria Variability in Ghana Using a Regional Scale Dynamical Model |
| title_sort | assessing climate driven malaria variability in ghana using a regional scale dynamical model |
| topic | VECTRI malaria EIR surface hydrology |
| url | https://ir.knust.edu.gh/handle/123456789/11790 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT asareernesto assessingclimatedrivenmalariavariabilityinghanausingaregionalscaledynamicalmodel AT amekudzileonardk assessingclimatedrivenmalariavariabilityinghanausingaregionalscaledynamicalmodel |