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Seemingly unrelated time series model for forecasting the peak and short-term electricity demand: Evidence from the Kalman filtered Monte Carlo method
This article is published by Heliyon 2023 and is also available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e18821
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| Language: | English |
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Heliyon
2024
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| _version_ | 1869483574472736768 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | MARTIN, HENRY Owusu, Frank Kofi Amoako-Yirenkyi, Peter Frempong, Nana Kena Omari-Sasu, Akoto Yaw Mensah, Isaac Adjei Sakyi, Adu |
| author2 | 0000-0003-0173-1238 |
| author_browse | 0000-0003-0173-1238 Amoako-Yirenkyi, Peter Frempong, Nana Kena MARTIN, HENRY Mensah, Isaac Adjei Omari-Sasu, Akoto Yaw Owusu, Frank Kofi Sakyi, Adu |
| author_facet | 0000-0003-0173-1238 MARTIN, HENRY Owusu, Frank Kofi Amoako-Yirenkyi, Peter Frempong, Nana Kena Omari-Sasu, Akoto Yaw Mensah, Isaac Adjei Sakyi, Adu |
| author_sort | MARTIN, HENRY |
| collection | Thesis |
| description | This article is published by Heliyon 2023 and is also available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e18821 |
| format | Article |
| id | oai:ir.knust.edu.gh:123456789/16058 |
| institution | KNUST (Ghana) |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-07-01T04:01:09.917Z |
| license_str | Not specified — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from KNUSTSpace — Kwame Nkrumah University of Science & Technology (Ghana) |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | Heliyon |
| publisherStr | Heliyon |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | KNUSTSpace — Kwame Nkrumah University of Science & Technology (Ghana) |
| spelling | oai:ir.knust.edu.gh:123456789/16058 Seemingly unrelated time series model for forecasting the peak and short-term electricity demand: Evidence from the Kalman filtered Monte Carlo method MARTIN, HENRY Owusu, Frank Kofi Amoako-Yirenkyi, Peter Frempong, Nana Kena Omari-Sasu, Akoto Yaw Mensah, Isaac Adjei Sakyi, Adu 0000-0003-0173-1238 This article is published by Heliyon 2023 and is also available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e18821 In this extant paper, a multivariate time series model using the seemingly unrelated times series equation (SUTSE) framework is proposed to forecast the peak and short-term electricity demand using time series data from February 2, 2014, to August 2, 2018. Further the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, Gibbs Sampler, together with the Kalman Filter were applied to the SUTSE model to simulate the variances to predict the next day’s peak and electricity demand. Relying on the study results, the running ergodic mean showed the convergence of the MCMC process. Before forecasting the peak and short-term electricity demand, a week’s prediction from the 28th to the 2nd of August of 2018 was analyzed and it found that there is a possible decrease in the daily energy over time. Further, the forecast for the next day (August 3, 2018) was about 2187 MW and 44090 MWh for the peak and electricity demands respectively. Finally, the robustness of the SUTSE model was assessed in comparison to the SUTSE model without MCMC. Evidently, SUTSE with the MCMC method had recorded an accuracy of about 96% and 95.8% for Peak demand and daily energy respectively KNUST 2024-12-18T10:36:58Z 2024-12-18T10:36:58Z 2023-08 Article F.K. Owusu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e18821 https://ir.knust.edu.gh/handle/123456789/16058 en application/pdf Heliyon |
| spellingShingle | MARTIN, HENRY Owusu, Frank Kofi Amoako-Yirenkyi, Peter Frempong, Nana Kena Omari-Sasu, Akoto Yaw Mensah, Isaac Adjei Sakyi, Adu Seemingly unrelated time series model for forecasting the peak and short-term electricity demand: Evidence from the Kalman filtered Monte Carlo method |
| title | Seemingly unrelated time series model for forecasting the peak and short-term electricity demand: Evidence from the Kalman filtered Monte Carlo method |
| title_full | Seemingly unrelated time series model for forecasting the peak and short-term electricity demand: Evidence from the Kalman filtered Monte Carlo method |
| title_fullStr | Seemingly unrelated time series model for forecasting the peak and short-term electricity demand: Evidence from the Kalman filtered Monte Carlo method |
| title_full_unstemmed | Seemingly unrelated time series model for forecasting the peak and short-term electricity demand: Evidence from the Kalman filtered Monte Carlo method |
| title_short | Seemingly unrelated time series model for forecasting the peak and short-term electricity demand: Evidence from the Kalman filtered Monte Carlo method |
| title_sort | seemingly unrelated time series model for forecasting the peak and short term electricity demand evidence from the kalman filtered monte carlo method |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e18821 https://ir.knust.edu.gh/handle/123456789/16058 |
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