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Time series analysis of count data with an application to the incidence of cholera
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 88-93).
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| Main Author: | |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Department of Statistical Sciences
2015
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| _version_ | 1867613293290455041 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Holloway, Jennifer Patricia |
| author2 | Haines, Linda |
| author_browse | Haines, Linda Holloway, Jennifer Patricia |
| author_facet | Haines, Linda Holloway, Jennifer Patricia |
| author_sort | Holloway, Jennifer Patricia |
| collection | Thesis |
| description | Includes bibliographical references (leaves 88-93). |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/11088 |
| institution | University of Cape Town (South Africa) |
| language | eng |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:33:49.949Z |
| license_str | Not specified — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publishDateRange | 2015 |
| publishDateSort | 2015 |
| publisher | Department of Statistical Sciences |
| publisherStr | Department of Statistical Sciences |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| spelling | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/11088 Time series analysis of count data with an application to the incidence of cholera Holloway, Jennifer Patricia Haines, Linda Leask, Kerry Elphinstone, Chris Mathematical Statistics Includes bibliographical references (leaves 88-93). This dissertation comprises a study into the application of count data time series models to weekly counts of cholera cases that have been recorded in Beira, Mozambique. The study specifically looks at two classes of time series models for count data, namely observation-driven and parameter-driven, and two models from each of these classes are investigated. The autoregressive conditional Poisson (ACP) and double autoregressive conditional Poisson (DACP) are considered under the observation-driven class, while the parameter-driven models used are the Poisson-gamma and stochastic autoregressive mean (SAM) model. An in-depth case study of the cholera counts is presented in which the four selected count data time series models are compared. In addition the time series models are compared to static Poisson and negative binomial regression, thereby indicating the benefits gained in using count data time series models when the counts exhibit serial correlation. In the process of comparing the models, the effect of environmental drivers on the outbreaks of cholera are observed and discussed. 2015-01-03T05:29:49Z 2015-01-03T05:29:49Z 2011 Master Thesis Masters MSc http://hdl.handle.net/11427/11088 eng application/pdf Department of Statistical Sciences Faculty of Science University of Cape Town |
| spellingShingle | Mathematical Statistics Holloway, Jennifer Patricia Time series analysis of count data with an application to the incidence of cholera |
| thesis_degree_str | Master's |
| title | Time series analysis of count data with an application to the incidence of cholera |
| title_full | Time series analysis of count data with an application to the incidence of cholera |
| title_fullStr | Time series analysis of count data with an application to the incidence of cholera |
| title_full_unstemmed | Time series analysis of count data with an application to the incidence of cholera |
| title_short | Time series analysis of count data with an application to the incidence of cholera |
| title_sort | time series analysis of count data with an application to the incidence of cholera |
| topic | Mathematical Statistics |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/11427/11088 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hollowayjenniferpatricia timeseriesanalysisofcountdatawithanapplicationtotheincidenceofcholera |