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Investigating the link between southern African droughts and global atmospheric teleconnections using regional climate models
Includes bibliographical references
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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Department of Environmental and Geographical Science
2016
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| _version_ | 1867613188708630528 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Meque, Arlindo Oliva |
| author2 | Abiodun, Babatunde Joseph |
| author_browse | Abiodun, Babatunde Joseph Meque, Arlindo Oliva |
| author_facet | Abiodun, Babatunde Joseph Meque, Arlindo Oliva |
| author_sort | Meque, Arlindo Oliva |
| collection | Thesis |
| description | Includes bibliographical references |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/16686 |
| institution | University of Cape Town (South Africa) |
| language | eng |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:32:11.035Z |
| license_str | Not specified — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publishDateRange | 2016 |
| publishDateSort | 2016 |
| publisher | Department of Environmental and Geographical Science |
| publisherStr | Department of Environmental and Geographical Science |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| spelling | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/16686 Investigating the link between southern African droughts and global atmospheric teleconnections using regional climate models Meque, Arlindo Oliva Abiodun, Babatunde Joseph Hewitson, Bruce Environmental and Geographical Science Climate Change Drought Includes bibliographical references Drought is one of the natural hazards that threaten the economy of many nations, especially in Southern Africa, where many socio-economic activities depend on rain-fed agriculture. This study evaluates the capability of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in simulating the Southern African droughts. It uses the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI, computed using rainfall and temperature data) to identify 3-month droughts over Southern Africa, and compares the observed and simulated drought patterns. The observation data are from the Climate Research Unit (CRU), while the simulation data are from 10 RCMs (ARPEGE, CCLM, HIRHAM, RACMO, REMO, PRECIS, RegCM3, RCA, WRF, and CRCM) that participated in the Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. The study also categorizes drought patterns over Southern Africa, examines the persistence and transition of these patterns, and investigates the roles of atmospheric teleconnections on the drought patterns. The results show that the drought patterns can occur in any season, but they have preference for seasons. Some droughts patterns may persist up to three seasons, while others are transient. Only about 20% of the droughts patterns are induced solely by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), other drought patterns are caused by complex interactions among the atmospheric teleconnections. The study also reveals that the Southern Africa drought pattern is generally shifting from a wet condition to a dry condition, and that the shifting can only be captured with a drought monitoring index that accounts for temperature influence on drought. Only few CORDEX RCMs simulate the Southern African droughts as observed. In this regard, the ARPEGE model shows the best simulation. The best performance may be because the stretching capability of ARPEGE helps the model to eliminate boundary condition problems, which are present in other RCMs. In ARPEGE simulations, the stretching capability would allow a better interaction between large and small scale features, and may lead to a better representation of the rain producing systems in Southern Africa. The results of the study may be applied to improve monitoring and prediction of regionally-extensive drought over Southern Africa, and to reduce the socio-economic impacts of drought in the region. 2016-02-02T14:39:06Z 2016-02-02T14:39:06Z 2015 Doctoral Thesis Doctoral PhD http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16686 eng application/pdf Department of Environmental and Geographical Science Faculty of Science University of Cape Town |
| spellingShingle | Environmental and Geographical Science Climate Change Drought Meque, Arlindo Oliva Investigating the link between southern African droughts and global atmospheric teleconnections using regional climate models |
| thesis_degree_str | Doctoral |
| title | Investigating the link between southern African droughts and global atmospheric teleconnections using regional climate models |
| title_full | Investigating the link between southern African droughts and global atmospheric teleconnections using regional climate models |
| title_fullStr | Investigating the link between southern African droughts and global atmospheric teleconnections using regional climate models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Investigating the link between southern African droughts and global atmospheric teleconnections using regional climate models |
| title_short | Investigating the link between southern African droughts and global atmospheric teleconnections using regional climate models |
| title_sort | investigating the link between southern african droughts and global atmospheric teleconnections using regional climate models |
| topic | Environmental and Geographical Science Climate Change Drought |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16686 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mequearlindooliva investigatingthelinkbetweensouthernafricandroughtsandglobalatmosphericteleconnectionsusingregionalclimatemodels |