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Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa
Includes bibliographical references
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| Main Author: | |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Department of Environmental and Geographical Science
2016
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| _version_ | 1867613216401522688 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Pinto, Izidine S de Sousa |
| author2 | Lennard, Chris |
| author_browse | Lennard, Chris Pinto, Izidine S de Sousa |
| author_facet | Lennard, Chris Pinto, Izidine S de Sousa |
| author_sort | Pinto, Izidine S de Sousa |
| collection | Thesis |
| description | Includes bibliographical references |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/16781 |
| institution | University of Cape Town (South Africa) |
| language | eng |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:32:37.404Z |
| license_str | Not specified — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publishDateRange | 2016 |
| publishDateSort | 2016 |
| publisher | Department of Environmental and Geographical Science |
| publisherStr | Department of Environmental and Geographical Science |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| spelling | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/16781 Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa Pinto, Izidine S de Sousa Lennard, Chris Tadross, Mark Hewitson, Bruce Environmental Science Climate Change climate models Includes bibliographical references Changes in precipitation extremes are projected by many global climate models as a response to greenhouse gas increases, and such changes will have significant environmental and social impacts. These impacts are a function of exposure and vulnerability. Hence there is critical need to understand the nature of weather and climate extremes. Results from an ensemble of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project are used to investigate projected changes in extreme precipitation characteristics over southern Africa for the middle (2036-2065) and late century (2069-2098) under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5). Two approaches are followed to identify and analyze extreme precipitation events. First, indices for extreme events, which capture moderate extreme events, are calculated on the basis of model data and are compared with indices from two observational gridded datasets at annual basis. The second approach is based on extreme value theory. Here, the Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV) is fitted to annual maxima precipitation by a L-moments method. The 20-year return values are analyzed for present and future climate conditions. The physical drivers of the projected change are evaluated by examining the models ability to simulate circulation patterns over the regions with the aid of Self-Organizing Maps (SOM). 2016-02-05T07:22:26Z 2016-02-05T07:22:26Z 2015 Doctoral Thesis Doctoral PhD http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16781 eng application/pdf Department of Environmental and Geographical Science Faculty of Science University of Cape Town |
| spellingShingle | Environmental Science Climate Change climate models Pinto, Izidine S de Sousa Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa |
| thesis_degree_str | Doctoral |
| title | Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa |
| title_full | Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa |
| title_fullStr | Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa |
| title_short | Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa |
| title_sort | future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern africa |
| topic | Environmental Science Climate Change climate models |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16781 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT pintoizidinesdesousa futurechangesinextremerainfalleventsandcirculationpatternsoversouthernafrica |