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A quantitative analysis of factors influencing housing demand in SA
After the 2008 financial crisis, which was heavily influenced by the housing market bubble, studying the housing market has become a subject of major interest to many scholars and investors globally. Literature identifies several key factors that influence housing demand including, employment, incom...
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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Research of GSB
2017
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| _version_ | 1867613152095502336 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Chipswa, Isaac |
| author2 | Rogers, Steven Nabieu |
| author_browse | Chipswa, Isaac Rogers, Steven Nabieu |
| author_facet | Rogers, Steven Nabieu Chipswa, Isaac |
| author_sort | Chipswa, Isaac |
| collection | Thesis |
| description | After the 2008 financial crisis, which was heavily influenced by the housing market bubble, studying the housing market has become a subject of major interest to many scholars and investors globally. Literature identifies several key factors that influence housing demand including, employment, income levels, gross domestic product, monetary policy and demographics among others. This thesis investigates the factors that influence housing demand in South Africa and incorporates quantitative analysis on the relationship between interest rates, exchange rates, inflation and housing demand. Most studies on this subject have been conducted in the developed market context, as such, this research study aims to fill the gap and influence future thinking in the emerging market context. There is currently limited research on the relationship between interest rates, exchange rates, inflation in relation to housing demand in the developing world including South Africa. In the analysis, housing demand is measured by mortgage loans disbursed monthly by the top four commercial banks in South Africa. In addition to desktop research, the research also incorporates perspectives and thinking from some of the renowned professionals and academics in the housing market. Monthly time series data (from 1995 up to 2015) on interest rates, exchange rates, inflation (CPI) and mortgage loans disbursed was obtained from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) website. Based on multiple regression analysis, the output results are in line with views held by most academics in the literature review. It was observed from the results that the housing demand (as measured by the mortgage loans disbursed to individuals) is negatively correlated to prime overdraft/ inflation rate and positively correlated to foreign exchange rate. As such, an increase in interest and inflation rates, result in a decrease in housing demand. An increase in exchange rate results in decreased housing demand. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/25174 |
| institution | University of Cape Town (South Africa) |
| language | eng |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:31:35.974Z |
| license_str | Not specified — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publishDateRange | 2017 |
| publishDateSort | 2017 |
| publisher | Research of GSB |
| publisherStr | Research of GSB |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| spelling | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/25174 A quantitative analysis of factors influencing housing demand in SA Chipswa, Isaac Rogers, Steven Nabieu Development Finance After the 2008 financial crisis, which was heavily influenced by the housing market bubble, studying the housing market has become a subject of major interest to many scholars and investors globally. Literature identifies several key factors that influence housing demand including, employment, income levels, gross domestic product, monetary policy and demographics among others. This thesis investigates the factors that influence housing demand in South Africa and incorporates quantitative analysis on the relationship between interest rates, exchange rates, inflation and housing demand. Most studies on this subject have been conducted in the developed market context, as such, this research study aims to fill the gap and influence future thinking in the emerging market context. There is currently limited research on the relationship between interest rates, exchange rates, inflation in relation to housing demand in the developing world including South Africa. In the analysis, housing demand is measured by mortgage loans disbursed monthly by the top four commercial banks in South Africa. In addition to desktop research, the research also incorporates perspectives and thinking from some of the renowned professionals and academics in the housing market. Monthly time series data (from 1995 up to 2015) on interest rates, exchange rates, inflation (CPI) and mortgage loans disbursed was obtained from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) website. Based on multiple regression analysis, the output results are in line with views held by most academics in the literature review. It was observed from the results that the housing demand (as measured by the mortgage loans disbursed to individuals) is negatively correlated to prime overdraft/ inflation rate and positively correlated to foreign exchange rate. As such, an increase in interest and inflation rates, result in a decrease in housing demand. An increase in exchange rate results in decreased housing demand. 2017-09-14T12:16:27Z 2017-09-14T12:16:27Z 2017 Master Thesis Masters MCom http://hdl.handle.net/11427/25174 eng application/pdf Research of GSB Faculty of Commerce University of Cape Town |
| spellingShingle | Development Finance Chipswa, Isaac A quantitative analysis of factors influencing housing demand in SA |
| thesis_degree_str | Master's |
| title | A quantitative analysis of factors influencing housing demand in SA |
| title_full | A quantitative analysis of factors influencing housing demand in SA |
| title_fullStr | A quantitative analysis of factors influencing housing demand in SA |
| title_full_unstemmed | A quantitative analysis of factors influencing housing demand in SA |
| title_short | A quantitative analysis of factors influencing housing demand in SA |
| title_sort | quantitative analysis of factors influencing housing demand in sa |
| topic | Development Finance |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/11427/25174 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT chipswaisaac aquantitativeanalysisoffactorsinfluencinghousingdemandinsa AT chipswaisaac quantitativeanalysisoffactorsinfluencinghousingdemandinsa |