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Assessing the vulnerability of South Africa's national protected areas to climate change
Protected areas should be reviewed under expected future climate conditions so that conservation and expansion strategies can be developed appropriately. An assessment of the vulnerability of protected areas to climate change is a necessary step in developing such strategies. Indeed, a vulnerability...
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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Department of Environmental and Geographical Science
2019
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| _version_ | 1867614171078590464 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Coldrey, Kevin |
| author2 | Turpie, Jane |
| author_browse | Coldrey, Kevin Turpie, Jane |
| author_facet | Turpie, Jane Coldrey, Kevin |
| author_sort | Coldrey, Kevin |
| collection | Thesis |
| description | Protected areas should be reviewed under expected future climate conditions so that conservation and expansion strategies can be developed appropriately. An assessment of the vulnerability of protected areas to climate change is a necessary step in developing such strategies. Indeed, a vulnerability assessment is an important step in developing adaptation strategies for conservation. This is important as substantial climate change has already been experienced at a park level in South Africa. The aim of this study was to develop a method for assessing the relative vulnerability of protected areas to climate change and to apply this to South Africa’s 19 national parks. The method includes identifying and quantifying potential impacts of climate change on each focal protected area, carried out by developing and/or using projections for species, ecosystems, infrastructure, tourism and neighbouring communities. Potential impacts were combined with measures of each park’s adaptive capacity to develop an overall park vulnerability score. This study has taken vulnerability assessment at a protected area level further than has been attempted before by assessing not only the biophysical but also the socioeconomic impacts of climate change on a protected area, quantifying the potential changes (potential impacts) and developing a relative index. The results indicate that climate change has the potential to contribute significantly to the threats faced by South Africa’s national parks. Apart from a potentially devastating impact on species and ecosystems, the effects on tourism demand, community relations and infrastructure are of concern. Not surprisingly, the most vulnerable parks are largely coastal, where tourist infrastructure is at risk of both flooding and sea-level rise, and there are higher population densities. Furthermore, coastal ecosystems are expected to transform significantly which will have consequences for range-restricted species. Management strategies need to take heed of the magnitude of potential impacts identified in this study and work towards developing adaptation pathways. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/29568 |
| institution | University of Cape Town (South Africa) |
| language | eng |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:47:47.914Z |
| license_str | Not specified — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publishDateRange | 2019 |
| publishDateSort | 2019 |
| publisher | Department of Environmental and Geographical Science |
| publisherStr | Department of Environmental and Geographical Science |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| spelling | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/29568 Assessing the vulnerability of South Africa's national protected areas to climate change Coldrey, Kevin Turpie, Jane Foden, Wendy Climate Change and Sustainable Development Protected areas should be reviewed under expected future climate conditions so that conservation and expansion strategies can be developed appropriately. An assessment of the vulnerability of protected areas to climate change is a necessary step in developing such strategies. Indeed, a vulnerability assessment is an important step in developing adaptation strategies for conservation. This is important as substantial climate change has already been experienced at a park level in South Africa. The aim of this study was to develop a method for assessing the relative vulnerability of protected areas to climate change and to apply this to South Africa’s 19 national parks. The method includes identifying and quantifying potential impacts of climate change on each focal protected area, carried out by developing and/or using projections for species, ecosystems, infrastructure, tourism and neighbouring communities. Potential impacts were combined with measures of each park’s adaptive capacity to develop an overall park vulnerability score. This study has taken vulnerability assessment at a protected area level further than has been attempted before by assessing not only the biophysical but also the socioeconomic impacts of climate change on a protected area, quantifying the potential changes (potential impacts) and developing a relative index. The results indicate that climate change has the potential to contribute significantly to the threats faced by South Africa’s national parks. Apart from a potentially devastating impact on species and ecosystems, the effects on tourism demand, community relations and infrastructure are of concern. Not surprisingly, the most vulnerable parks are largely coastal, where tourist infrastructure is at risk of both flooding and sea-level rise, and there are higher population densities. Furthermore, coastal ecosystems are expected to transform significantly which will have consequences for range-restricted species. Management strategies need to take heed of the magnitude of potential impacts identified in this study and work towards developing adaptation pathways. 2019-02-18T09:23:50Z 2019-02-18T09:23:50Z 2018 2019-02-18T08:52:18Z Master Thesis Masters MPhil http://hdl.handle.net/11427/29568 eng application/pdf Department of Environmental and Geographical Science Faculty of Science University of Cape Town |
| spellingShingle | Climate Change and Sustainable Development Coldrey, Kevin Assessing the vulnerability of South Africa's national protected areas to climate change |
| thesis_degree_str | Master's |
| title | Assessing the vulnerability of South Africa's national protected areas to climate change |
| title_full | Assessing the vulnerability of South Africa's national protected areas to climate change |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the vulnerability of South Africa's national protected areas to climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the vulnerability of South Africa's national protected areas to climate change |
| title_short | Assessing the vulnerability of South Africa's national protected areas to climate change |
| title_sort | assessing the vulnerability of south africa s national protected areas to climate change |
| topic | Climate Change and Sustainable Development |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/11427/29568 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT coldreykevin assessingthevulnerabilityofsouthafricasnationalprotectedareastoclimatechange |