Full Text Available
Note: Clicking the button above will open the full text document at the original institutional repository in a new window.
An Examination of the Accuracy of Economic Country Forecasts produced by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
This paper investigates the accuracy of Country-Level Forecasts for six variables: Real GDP Growth, Inflation (Consumer Price Index), Short-Term Interbank Rate, Budget Deficit (as % of GDP), Current Account Balance (as % of GDP) and the Unemployment rate. The data used in this analysis is produced b...
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
School of Economics
2019
|
| Subjects: | |
| Tags: |
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1867613340589621248 |
|---|---|
| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Falconer, Nick |
| author2 | Van Walbeek, Cornelis |
| author_browse | Falconer, Nick Van Walbeek, Cornelis |
| author_facet | Van Walbeek, Cornelis Falconer, Nick |
| author_sort | Falconer, Nick |
| collection | Thesis |
| description | This paper investigates the accuracy of Country-Level Forecasts for six variables: Real GDP Growth, Inflation (Consumer Price Index), Short-Term Interbank Rate, Budget Deficit (as % of GDP), Current Account Balance (as % of GDP) and the Unemployment rate. The data used in this analysis is produced by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and covers the period 1996-2013. The two forecast horizons of primary interest are Current-Year (t) and One-Year-Ahead (t+1) forecasts. A range of statistical methods are used to ascertain the accuracy of the EIU forecasts in 103 countries for most of the variables, while the accuracy of the Unemployment rate forecasts used data for 68 countries. Generally, the results confirm this paper’s four primary hypotheses: (1) EIU forecasts are more accurate than No-Change-Forecasts; (2) EIU forecasts for higher income countries have smaller errors than forecasts for lower income countries; (3) The accuracy of EIU forecasts decreases as forecast horizon increases; and (4) The accuracy of EIU forecasts was relatively weaker during the period of the Global Financial Crisis (2008-2009) than in other periods. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/29631 |
| institution | University of Cape Town (South Africa) |
| language | eng |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:34:33.896Z |
| license_str | Not specified — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publishDateRange | 2019 |
| publishDateSort | 2019 |
| publisher | School of Economics |
| publisherStr | School of Economics |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| spelling | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/29631 An Examination of the Accuracy of Economic Country Forecasts produced by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Falconer, Nick Van Walbeek, Cornelis Economics This paper investigates the accuracy of Country-Level Forecasts for six variables: Real GDP Growth, Inflation (Consumer Price Index), Short-Term Interbank Rate, Budget Deficit (as % of GDP), Current Account Balance (as % of GDP) and the Unemployment rate. The data used in this analysis is produced by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and covers the period 1996-2013. The two forecast horizons of primary interest are Current-Year (t) and One-Year-Ahead (t+1) forecasts. A range of statistical methods are used to ascertain the accuracy of the EIU forecasts in 103 countries for most of the variables, while the accuracy of the Unemployment rate forecasts used data for 68 countries. Generally, the results confirm this paper’s four primary hypotheses: (1) EIU forecasts are more accurate than No-Change-Forecasts; (2) EIU forecasts for higher income countries have smaller errors than forecasts for lower income countries; (3) The accuracy of EIU forecasts decreases as forecast horizon increases; and (4) The accuracy of EIU forecasts was relatively weaker during the period of the Global Financial Crisis (2008-2009) than in other periods. 2019-02-18T11:25:45Z 2019-02-18T11:25:45Z 2018 2019-02-15T08:41:07Z Master Thesis Masters MCom http://hdl.handle.net/11427/29631 eng application/pdf School of Economics Faculty of Commerce University of Cape Town |
| spellingShingle | Economics Falconer, Nick An Examination of the Accuracy of Economic Country Forecasts produced by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) |
| thesis_degree_str | Master's |
| title | An Examination of the Accuracy of Economic Country Forecasts produced by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) |
| title_full | An Examination of the Accuracy of Economic Country Forecasts produced by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) |
| title_fullStr | An Examination of the Accuracy of Economic Country Forecasts produced by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) |
| title_full_unstemmed | An Examination of the Accuracy of Economic Country Forecasts produced by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) |
| title_short | An Examination of the Accuracy of Economic Country Forecasts produced by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) |
| title_sort | examination of the accuracy of economic country forecasts produced by the economist intelligence unit eiu |
| topic | Economics |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/11427/29631 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT falconernick anexaminationoftheaccuracyofeconomiccountryforecastsproducedbytheeconomistintelligenceuniteiu AT falconernick examinationoftheaccuracyofeconomiccountryforecastsproducedbytheeconomistintelligenceuniteiu |