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Trade linkages and growth in South Africa: an SVAR analysis
This paper investigates the vulnerability of South Africa to the shocks that originate from its major trading partners over time using a structural vector autoregressive framework. We examine the impact of shocks emanating from the EU, the US, China, Japan, India and Brazil on South Africa’s output...
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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School of Economics
2020
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| _version_ | 1867614171680473088 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Liu, Xinman |
| author2 | Kotze, Kevin |
| author_browse | Kotze, Kevin Liu, Xinman |
| author_facet | Kotze, Kevin Liu, Xinman |
| author_sort | Liu, Xinman |
| collection | Thesis |
| description | This paper investigates the vulnerability of South Africa to the shocks that originate from its major trading partners over time using a structural vector autoregressive framework. We examine the impact of shocks emanating from the EU, the US, China, Japan, India and Brazil on South Africa’s output growth through both direct and indirect trade linkages, by considering the changing trade patterns from 1996 to 2017. The results suggest that the South African economy has become more integrated with emerging economies. Furthermore, China has increased its impact on the output growth of the other sample economies through trade linkages, which implies that developments in China are of increasing importance to other economies. The US and the EU are still dominated in propagating shocks despite their declining impact on the output growth of other economies in this sample. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/31614 |
| institution | University of Cape Town (South Africa) |
| language | eng |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:47:48.488Z |
| license_str | Not specified — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publishDateRange | 2020 |
| publishDateSort | 2020 |
| publisher | School of Economics |
| publisherStr | School of Economics |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| spelling | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/31614 Trade linkages and growth in South Africa: an SVAR analysis Liu, Xinman Kotze, Kevin Trade linkages South Africa SVAR model output shocks This paper investigates the vulnerability of South Africa to the shocks that originate from its major trading partners over time using a structural vector autoregressive framework. We examine the impact of shocks emanating from the EU, the US, China, Japan, India and Brazil on South Africa’s output growth through both direct and indirect trade linkages, by considering the changing trade patterns from 1996 to 2017. The results suggest that the South African economy has become more integrated with emerging economies. Furthermore, China has increased its impact on the output growth of the other sample economies through trade linkages, which implies that developments in China are of increasing importance to other economies. The US and the EU are still dominated in propagating shocks despite their declining impact on the output growth of other economies in this sample. 2020-03-17T12:57:21Z 2020-03-17T12:57:21Z 2019 2020-03-17T12:19:49Z Master Thesis Masters MCom https://hdl.handle.net/11427/31614 eng application/pdf School of Economics Faculty of Commerce |
| spellingShingle | Trade linkages South Africa SVAR model output shocks Liu, Xinman Trade linkages and growth in South Africa: an SVAR analysis |
| thesis_degree_str | Master's |
| title | Trade linkages and growth in South Africa: an SVAR analysis |
| title_full | Trade linkages and growth in South Africa: an SVAR analysis |
| title_fullStr | Trade linkages and growth in South Africa: an SVAR analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Trade linkages and growth in South Africa: an SVAR analysis |
| title_short | Trade linkages and growth in South Africa: an SVAR analysis |
| title_sort | trade linkages and growth in south africa an svar analysis |
| topic | Trade linkages South Africa SVAR model output shocks |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/11427/31614 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT liuxinman tradelinkagesandgrowthinsouthafricaansvaranalysis |