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Tracing The Economy-Wide Impact Of Agricultural Drought In The Northern Cape: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based Multiplier Analysis

This paper uses a 2004 provincial social accounting matrix (SAM) to conduct a multiplier analysis that simulates the impact on the Northern Cape economy of an exogenous shock to the agricultural sector (such as a drought). By analysing the ripple effects of agricultural drought, this exercise highli...

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Main Author: Jules, Kane
Other Authors: Leiman, Anthony
Format: Thesis
Language:Eng
Published: School of Economics 2024
Subjects:
Commerce
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access_status_str Open Access
author Jules, Kane
author2 Leiman, Anthony
author_browse Jules, Kane
Leiman, Anthony
author_facet Leiman, Anthony
Jules, Kane
author_sort Jules, Kane
collection Thesis
description This paper uses a 2004 provincial social accounting matrix (SAM) to conduct a multiplier analysis that simulates the impact on the Northern Cape economy of an exogenous shock to the agricultural sector (such as a drought). By analysing the ripple effects of agricultural drought, this exercise highlights the multiplier effects (direct, indirect and induced effects) that manifest through the backward and forward linkages between agriculture and other related economic sectors. Through analysis of the multiplier effects on various sectors and the provincial economy as a whole, the study finds that the negative 10 percent exogenous shock to agricultural commodities exerts significant indirect effects throughout the Northern Cape economy. Sectors involved in the production of intermediate goods and consumer goods were found to experience the largest decline in response to the agricultural shock. In line with expectations, unskilled labourers and their dependent communities were found to experience the bulk of the distributional impact. However, impacts to the income of skilled labourers as well as services sectors were found to be particularly sensitive to the inclusion of enterprises as an endogenous account. Furthermore, the results suggest that expanding farmers' and households' access to credit can be a helpful short-term tool to limit the induced effects of the shock.
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id oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/39567
institution University of Cape Town (South Africa)
language Eng
last_indexed 2026-06-10T12:33:33.643Z
license_str Not specified — see source repository
provenance_str_mv Harvested via OAI-PMH from UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository
publishDate 2024
publishDateRange 2024
publishDateSort 2024
publisher School of Economics
publisherStr School of Economics
record_format dspace
source_str UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository
spelling oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/39567 Tracing The Economy-Wide Impact Of Agricultural Drought In The Northern Cape: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based Multiplier Analysis Jules, Kane Leiman, Anthony Commerce This paper uses a 2004 provincial social accounting matrix (SAM) to conduct a multiplier analysis that simulates the impact on the Northern Cape economy of an exogenous shock to the agricultural sector (such as a drought). By analysing the ripple effects of agricultural drought, this exercise highlights the multiplier effects (direct, indirect and induced effects) that manifest through the backward and forward linkages between agriculture and other related economic sectors. Through analysis of the multiplier effects on various sectors and the provincial economy as a whole, the study finds that the negative 10 percent exogenous shock to agricultural commodities exerts significant indirect effects throughout the Northern Cape economy. Sectors involved in the production of intermediate goods and consumer goods were found to experience the largest decline in response to the agricultural shock. In line with expectations, unskilled labourers and their dependent communities were found to experience the bulk of the distributional impact. However, impacts to the income of skilled labourers as well as services sectors were found to be particularly sensitive to the inclusion of enterprises as an endogenous account. Furthermore, the results suggest that expanding farmers' and households' access to credit can be a helpful short-term tool to limit the induced effects of the shock. 2024-05-02T09:15:05Z 2024-05-02T09:15:05Z 2023 2024-04-30T13:11:57Z Thesis / Dissertation Masters MCom http://hdl.handle.net/11427/39567 Eng application/pdf School of Economics Faculty of Commerce
spellingShingle Commerce
Jules, Kane
Tracing The Economy-Wide Impact Of Agricultural Drought In The Northern Cape: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based Multiplier Analysis
thesis_degree_str Master's
title Tracing The Economy-Wide Impact Of Agricultural Drought In The Northern Cape: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based Multiplier Analysis
title_full Tracing The Economy-Wide Impact Of Agricultural Drought In The Northern Cape: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based Multiplier Analysis
title_fullStr Tracing The Economy-Wide Impact Of Agricultural Drought In The Northern Cape: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based Multiplier Analysis
title_full_unstemmed Tracing The Economy-Wide Impact Of Agricultural Drought In The Northern Cape: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based Multiplier Analysis
title_short Tracing The Economy-Wide Impact Of Agricultural Drought In The Northern Cape: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based Multiplier Analysis
title_sort tracing the economy wide impact of agricultural drought in the northern cape a social accounting matrix sam based multiplier analysis
topic Commerce
url http://hdl.handle.net/11427/39567
work_keys_str_mv AT juleskane tracingtheeconomywideimpactofagriculturaldroughtinthenortherncapeasocialaccountingmatrixsambasedmultiplieranalysis

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