Full Text Available
Note: Clicking the button above will open the full text document at the original institutional repository in a new window.
Assessing seasonal forecast use in Western Cape viticulture: a risk framework approach
Viticulture refers to the practice of cultivating grapevines for winemaking. With a rapidly changing climate and rising global temperatures, this type of farming is under significant threat. Seasonal forecasts (SF) offer the potential to reduce farmer's vulnerability to climate risks by offering adv...
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English English |
| Published: |
Department of Environmental and Geographical Science
2025
|
| Subjects: | |
| Tags: |
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1867613171136593920 |
|---|---|
| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Khumalo, Fidelity Zwelihle |
| author2 | Crespo, Olivier |
| author_browse | Crespo, Olivier Khumalo, Fidelity Zwelihle |
| author_facet | Crespo, Olivier Khumalo, Fidelity Zwelihle |
| author_sort | Khumalo, Fidelity Zwelihle |
| collection | Thesis |
| description | Viticulture refers to the practice of cultivating grapevines for winemaking. With a rapidly changing climate and rising global temperatures, this type of farming is under significant threat. Seasonal forecasts (SF) offer the potential to reduce farmer's vulnerability to climate risks by offering advanced climate information. This study aims to use a risk management framework to identify and compare the level of risk involved in using or not using seasonal forecasts in viticulture. The study's primary data was collected through self-administered semi-structured interviews with viticulturists, agricultural consultants. and farm managers at different wineries within the Western Cape province, South Africa (SA). Wine grape farmers were interviewed to learn about their adaptation strategies in response to climate variability and their use or no-use of SF. The interviews explored the nature and types of risks that exist when climate conditions are above and below normal conditions, with and without the use of SF. A risk management framework, designed for this study's context, was used as a reference point, giving common ground to analysing the responses thematically and produce evidence toward each study objectives. The results show that climate variability poses a significant threat to the yield and quality of wine produced and has a negative impact on the labour and finances in- volved in running a vineyard. Analysing the responses showed that forecast uncertainty is the main driver of low SF uptake thus correlating with a lack of risk precautionary decision-making measures by farmers. Making them more vulnerable to unexpected climate impacts and risks. Farmers who make use of SF are mainly commercial who work with consultants and whose main income is made from selling grapes. The evidence presented suggests that the adoption of a risk framework could potentially aid farmers in making better decisions to help them identify, mitigate and/or avoid risks using SF technology to inform risk identification for present and future climate scenarios of their vine-yards. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/42337 |
| institution | University of Cape Town (South Africa) |
| language | English eng |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:31:53.390Z |
| license_str | Not specified — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | Department of Environmental and Geographical Science |
| publisherStr | Department of Environmental and Geographical Science |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| spelling | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/42337 Assessing seasonal forecast use in Western Cape viticulture: a risk framework approach Khumalo, Fidelity Zwelihle Crespo, Olivier Dlamini, Luleka Seasonal forecasts Western Cape Viticulture refers to the practice of cultivating grapevines for winemaking. With a rapidly changing climate and rising global temperatures, this type of farming is under significant threat. Seasonal forecasts (SF) offer the potential to reduce farmer's vulnerability to climate risks by offering advanced climate information. This study aims to use a risk management framework to identify and compare the level of risk involved in using or not using seasonal forecasts in viticulture. The study's primary data was collected through self-administered semi-structured interviews with viticulturists, agricultural consultants. and farm managers at different wineries within the Western Cape province, South Africa (SA). Wine grape farmers were interviewed to learn about their adaptation strategies in response to climate variability and their use or no-use of SF. The interviews explored the nature and types of risks that exist when climate conditions are above and below normal conditions, with and without the use of SF. A risk management framework, designed for this study's context, was used as a reference point, giving common ground to analysing the responses thematically and produce evidence toward each study objectives. The results show that climate variability poses a significant threat to the yield and quality of wine produced and has a negative impact on the labour and finances in- volved in running a vineyard. Analysing the responses showed that forecast uncertainty is the main driver of low SF uptake thus correlating with a lack of risk precautionary decision-making measures by farmers. Making them more vulnerable to unexpected climate impacts and risks. Farmers who make use of SF are mainly commercial who work with consultants and whose main income is made from selling grapes. The evidence presented suggests that the adoption of a risk framework could potentially aid farmers in making better decisions to help them identify, mitigate and/or avoid risks using SF technology to inform risk identification for present and future climate scenarios of their vine-yards. 2025-11-26T06:43:16Z 2025-11-26T06:43:16Z 2025 2025-11-26T06:29:29Z Thesis / Dissertation Masters MPhil http://hdl.handle.net/11427/42337 en eng application/pdf Department of Environmental and Geographical Science Faculty of Science University of Cape Town |
| spellingShingle | Seasonal forecasts Western Cape Khumalo, Fidelity Zwelihle Assessing seasonal forecast use in Western Cape viticulture: a risk framework approach |
| thesis_degree_str | Master's |
| title | Assessing seasonal forecast use in Western Cape viticulture: a risk framework approach |
| title_full | Assessing seasonal forecast use in Western Cape viticulture: a risk framework approach |
| title_fullStr | Assessing seasonal forecast use in Western Cape viticulture: a risk framework approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing seasonal forecast use in Western Cape viticulture: a risk framework approach |
| title_short | Assessing seasonal forecast use in Western Cape viticulture: a risk framework approach |
| title_sort | assessing seasonal forecast use in western cape viticulture a risk framework approach |
| topic | Seasonal forecasts Western Cape |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/11427/42337 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT khumalofidelityzwelihle assessingseasonalforecastuseinwesterncapeviticultureariskframeworkapproach |