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The impact of political violence on export flows: evidence from South Africa
This paper examines the impact of the civil unrest episode that struck South Africa's KwaZulu Natal region in July 2021 on export flows. Using monthly transaction-level data and a difference-in-differences identification strategy, the study finds that the unrest period resulted in a significant decl...
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English English |
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School of Economics
2026
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| _version_ | 1867614337820000256 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Ujma, Christopher |
| author_browse | Ujma, Christopher |
| author_facet | Ujma, Christopher |
| author_sort | Ujma, Christopher |
| collection | Thesis |
| description | This paper examines the impact of the civil unrest episode that struck South Africa's KwaZulu Natal region in July 2021 on export flows. Using monthly transaction-level data and a difference-in-differences identification strategy, the study finds that the unrest period resulted in a significant decline in export values, originating primarily from a reduction in the extensive margin (number of distinct product varieties exported per origin-destination relationship). However, these results are found to mask heterogeneity in terms of the impact of this effect across products of varying levels of differentiation, with the total effect of the unrest episode on export values and the extensive margin found to only be significant for differentiated products during the crisis period. Exports of undifferentiated products, meanwhile, exhibited the largest negative effect on the intensive margin (the average value per product variety exported). These significant effects, however, were only present during the month of the unrest for both differentiated and undifferentiated products – suggesting that exporters in affected regions quickly re-entered those product-destination relationships that had been destroyed during the unrest episode; and that the strength of those relationships was not permanently affected by this period. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/43147 |
| institution | University of Cape Town (South Africa) |
| language | English eng |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:50:26.931Z |
| license_str | Not specified — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publishDateRange | 2026 |
| publishDateSort | 2026 |
| publisher | School of Economics |
| publisherStr | School of Economics |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| spelling | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/43147 The impact of political violence on export flows: evidence from South Africa Ujma, Christopher Political violence South Africa This paper examines the impact of the civil unrest episode that struck South Africa's KwaZulu Natal region in July 2021 on export flows. Using monthly transaction-level data and a difference-in-differences identification strategy, the study finds that the unrest period resulted in a significant decline in export values, originating primarily from a reduction in the extensive margin (number of distinct product varieties exported per origin-destination relationship). However, these results are found to mask heterogeneity in terms of the impact of this effect across products of varying levels of differentiation, with the total effect of the unrest episode on export values and the extensive margin found to only be significant for differentiated products during the crisis period. Exports of undifferentiated products, meanwhile, exhibited the largest negative effect on the intensive margin (the average value per product variety exported). These significant effects, however, were only present during the month of the unrest for both differentiated and undifferentiated products – suggesting that exporters in affected regions quickly re-entered those product-destination relationships that had been destroyed during the unrest episode; and that the strength of those relationships was not permanently affected by this period. 2026-04-29T09:34:54Z 2026-04-29T09:34:54Z 2023 2026-04-29T07:50:27Z Thesis / Dissertation Masters LLM http://hdl.handle.net/11427/43147 en eng application/pdf School of Economics Faculty of Commerce University of Cape Town |
| spellingShingle | Political violence South Africa Ujma, Christopher The impact of political violence on export flows: evidence from South Africa |
| thesis_degree_str | Master's |
| title | The impact of political violence on export flows: evidence from South Africa |
| title_full | The impact of political violence on export flows: evidence from South Africa |
| title_fullStr | The impact of political violence on export flows: evidence from South Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of political violence on export flows: evidence from South Africa |
| title_short | The impact of political violence on export flows: evidence from South Africa |
| title_sort | impact of political violence on export flows evidence from south africa |
| topic | Political violence South Africa |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/11427/43147 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ujmachristopher theimpactofpoliticalviolenceonexportflowsevidencefromsouthafrica AT ujmachristopher impactofpoliticalviolenceonexportflowsevidencefromsouthafrica |