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A comprehensive approach to electricity investment planning for multiple objectives and uncertainty
Includes abstract.
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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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Department of Chemical Engineering
2014
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| _version_ | 1867613476713660416 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Heinrich, Glen Sean |
| author_browse | Heinrich, Glen Sean |
| author_facet | Heinrich, Glen Sean |
| author_sort | Heinrich, Glen Sean |
| collection | Thesis |
| description | Includes abstract. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/5319 |
| institution | University of Cape Town (South Africa) |
| language | eng |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:36:45.716Z |
| license_str | Not specified — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publishDateRange | 2014 |
| publishDateSort | 2014 |
| publisher | Department of Chemical Engineering |
| publisherStr | Department of Chemical Engineering |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| spelling | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/5319 A comprehensive approach to electricity investment planning for multiple objectives and uncertainty Heinrich, Glen Sean Chemical Engineering Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references. Appropriate Energy-Environment-Economic (E3) modelling provides key information for policy makers in the Electricity Supply Industry (ESI) faced with navigating a sustainable development path. Key challenges include engaging with stakeholder values and preferences, and exploring trade-offs between competing objectives in the face of underlying uncertainty. As such, a comprehensive framework is needed that integrates multiple objectives and uncertainty into a transparent methodology that policy makers and planners can use to analyse and plan for investment in the ESI, in a way which shapes decision outcomes, and enables confident choices to be made. This thesis is aimed at developing such a framework. As a case study the South African ESI was represented using a partial equilibrium (Energy-Economic-Environment) E3 modelling approach. This approach was extended to include multiple objectives under selected future uncertainties. This extension was achieved by assigning cost penalties (PGPs – Pareto Generation Parameters) to non-cost attributes to force the model’s least-cost objective function to better satisfy non-cost criteria. It was shown that using PGPs is an efficient method for extending the analysis to multiple objectives as the solutions generated are non-dominated and are generated from ranges of performances in the various criteria rather than from arbitrarily forcing the selection of particular technologies. Extensive sections of the non-dominated solution space can be generated and later screened to allow further, more detailed exploration of areas of the solution space. Aspects of flexibility to demand growth uncertainty were incorporated into each future expansion alternative (FEA) by introducing stochastic programming with recourse into the model. Technology lead times were taken into account by the inclusion of a decision node along the time horizon where aspects of real options theory were considered within the planning process by splitting power station investments into their Owner’s Development Cost (ODC) and Equipment and Procurement Cost (EPC) components. Hedging in the recourse programming was automatically translated from being purely financial, to include the other attributes that the cost penalties represented. The hedged solutions improved on the naïve solutions under the multiple criteria considered as well as better satisfying the non-cost objectives relative to the base case (least cost solution). From a retrospective analysis of the cost penalties, the correct market signals could be derived to meet policy goal, with due regard to demand uncertainty. 2014-07-31T11:09:31Z 2014-07-31T11:09:31Z 2008 Doctoral Thesis Doctoral PhD http://hdl.handle.net/11427/5319 eng application/pdf Department of Chemical Engineering Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment University of Cape Town |
| spellingShingle | Chemical Engineering Heinrich, Glen Sean A comprehensive approach to electricity investment planning for multiple objectives and uncertainty |
| thesis_degree_str | Doctoral |
| title | A comprehensive approach to electricity investment planning for multiple objectives and uncertainty |
| title_full | A comprehensive approach to electricity investment planning for multiple objectives and uncertainty |
| title_fullStr | A comprehensive approach to electricity investment planning for multiple objectives and uncertainty |
| title_full_unstemmed | A comprehensive approach to electricity investment planning for multiple objectives and uncertainty |
| title_short | A comprehensive approach to electricity investment planning for multiple objectives and uncertainty |
| title_sort | comprehensive approach to electricity investment planning for multiple objectives and uncertainty |
| topic | Chemical Engineering |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/11427/5319 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT heinrichglensean acomprehensiveapproachtoelectricityinvestmentplanningformultipleobjectivesanduncertainty AT heinrichglensean comprehensiveapproachtoelectricityinvestmentplanningformultipleobjectivesanduncertainty |