Full Text Available
Note: Clicking the button above will open the full text document at the original institutional repository in a new window.
A critical analysis of the accuracy of the country forecasts as prepared by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
Includes bibliographical references (p. 69-73).
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Department of Political Studies
2014
|
| Subjects: | |
| Tags: |
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1867613162459627520 |
|---|---|
| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Durham, Kate Saranne |
| author2 | Van Walbeek, Corne |
| author_browse | Durham, Kate Saranne Van Walbeek, Corne |
| author_facet | Van Walbeek, Corne Durham, Kate Saranne |
| author_sort | Durham, Kate Saranne |
| collection | Thesis |
| description | Includes bibliographical references (p. 69-73). |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/7466 |
| institution | University of Cape Town (South Africa) |
| language | eng |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:31:45.395Z |
| license_str | Not specified — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publishDateRange | 2014 |
| publishDateSort | 2014 |
| publisher | Department of Political Studies |
| publisherStr | Department of Political Studies |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| spelling | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/7466 A critical analysis of the accuracy of the country forecasts as prepared by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Durham, Kate Saranne Van Walbeek, Corne Simons, Mary Politics, Philosophy and Economics Includes bibliographical references (p. 69-73). This thesis draws attention to the complexities involved in forecasting economic indicators. A literature review examines the general use of forecasts, errors within forecasts and various methods of analysing the accuracy of forecasts. The focus of this paper is on the testing and measuring of forecast accuracy within the Economist Intelligence Unit Country Forecasts, in particular the forecast accuracy of GOP and Inflation. This is carried out through the assessment of four a priori hypotheses 1) High Income Country Forecasts are consistently more accurate than those forecasts made for countries in the Low Income Category. 2) The accuracy of forecasts decreases the more distant the forecast horizon becomes, therefore Current-Year (t) Forecasts will outperform One-Year-Ahead (t+1) Forecasts. 3) The EIU Forecasts outperform No-Change-Forecasts as measured by the Theil's U-Statistic. 4) The EIU can forecast turning points better than a Random Probability method of forecasting can. The Tests used to evaluate the above hypotheses are the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Theil U-Statistic and Turning Point Directional Analysis. The conclusion reached by this thesis is that the accuracy of forecasts decreases the more distant the forecast horizon becomes, therefore it can be said that Current-Year (t) Forecasts will outperform One-Year-Ahead (t+1) Forecasts. Additionally, the EIU Forecasts do outperform No-Change-Forecasts as measured by the Theil's U-Statistic. Therefore the EIU can forecast turning points better than a Random Probability method of forecasting can. Finally, this thesis concludes that there is little evidence to suggest that High Income Country Forecasts are consistently more accurate than those forecasts made for countries in the Low Income Category. 2014-09-15T07:26:50Z 2014-09-15T07:26:50Z 2007 Master Thesis Masters MPhil http://hdl.handle.net/11427/7466 eng application/pdf Department of Political Studies Faculty of Humanities University of Cape Town |
| spellingShingle | Politics, Philosophy and Economics Durham, Kate Saranne A critical analysis of the accuracy of the country forecasts as prepared by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) |
| thesis_degree_str | Master's |
| title | A critical analysis of the accuracy of the country forecasts as prepared by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) |
| title_full | A critical analysis of the accuracy of the country forecasts as prepared by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) |
| title_fullStr | A critical analysis of the accuracy of the country forecasts as prepared by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) |
| title_full_unstemmed | A critical analysis of the accuracy of the country forecasts as prepared by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) |
| title_short | A critical analysis of the accuracy of the country forecasts as prepared by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) |
| title_sort | critical analysis of the accuracy of the country forecasts as prepared by the economist intelligence unit eiu |
| topic | Politics, Philosophy and Economics |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/11427/7466 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT durhamkatesaranne acriticalanalysisoftheaccuracyofthecountryforecastsaspreparedbytheeconomistintelligenceuniteiu AT durhamkatesaranne criticalanalysisoftheaccuracyofthecountryforecastsaspreparedbytheeconomistintelligenceuniteiu |