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Development of a financial computable general equilibrium model for South Africa
Thesis (PhD (Economics))--University of Pretoria, 2024.
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University of Pretoria
2025
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| _version_ | 1867613470486167552 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author2 | Bohlmann, Heinrich |
| author_browse | Bohlmann, Heinrich |
| author_facet | Bohlmann, Heinrich |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | © 2023 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. |
| description | Thesis (PhD (Economics))--University of Pretoria, 2024. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/101300 |
| institution | University of Pretoria (South Africa) |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:36:39.766Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | University of Pretoria |
| publisherStr | University of Pretoria |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| spelling | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/101300 Development of a financial computable general equilibrium model for South Africa Bohlmann, Heinrich vbokang@gmail.com Vumbukani-Lepolesa, Bokang Constance UCTD Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Financial model UPGEM Dynamic CGE UPGEM-F Monetary policy Thesis (PhD (Economics))--University of Pretoria, 2024. This thesis introduces a financial module into a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for South Africa. The new hybrid model, University of Pretoria General Equilibrium Finance Model (UPGEM-F), integrates real and financial aspects of the South African economy. This provides a relatively broader description of the economy-wide effects of the shocks compared to conventional CGE models. The real side of the model is anchored in the theoretical specification of the standard University of Pretoria General Equilibrium Model (UPGEM) that recognises many industries and commodities, alongside other economic actors. The financial side of the model considers the following agents, i) the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), ii) commercial banks, iii) the rest of the world, iv) general government, v) households, vi) industries (excluding housing), vii) non-bank financial institutions, viii) established housing, and ix) new housing developments. Additionally, the model recognises five financial instruments: i) notes and coins, ii) deposits and loans, iii) equity, iv) bonds, and v) gold and special drawing rights. The model uses economic data mainly from Statistics South Africa and the South African Reserve Bank. Two simulations are run to showcase the application of UPGEM-F. The first simulation assesses the economy-wide impact of a decrease in monetary inflows to South Africa from the rest of the world, following a downgrade to South Africa’s credit rating. In this application, the cost of investment increases with the increase in the country’s investment risk. This leads to a decrease in investment and a plunge in economic activity and factor incomes. This is consistent with the results of a standard UPGEM model, but UPGEM-F provides nuanced linkages between financial and real sectors of the economy. The second simulation assesses the economy-wide impact of an increase in assets held by the SARB, among other things, through bond purchases. This simulation results in a decrease in the interest rate, which, in turn, stimulates investment and improves aggregate demand. This sparks an increase in employment as well as private and public consumption. Economics PhD (Economics) Unrestricted Faculty of Economic And Management Sciences SDG-08: Decent work and economic growth 2025-03-03T12:49:14Z 2025-03-03T12:49:14Z 2025-04 2024-10 Thesis * A2025 http://hdl.handle.net/2263/101300 DOI: https://doi.org/10.25403/UPresearchdata.28505099.v1 https://doi.org/10.25403/UPresearchdata.28505099 en © 2023 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. application/pdf University of Pretoria |
| spellingShingle | UCTD Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Financial model UPGEM Dynamic CGE UPGEM-F Monetary policy Development of a financial computable general equilibrium model for South Africa |
| title | Development of a financial computable general equilibrium model for South Africa |
| title_full | Development of a financial computable general equilibrium model for South Africa |
| title_fullStr | Development of a financial computable general equilibrium model for South Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development of a financial computable general equilibrium model for South Africa |
| title_short | Development of a financial computable general equilibrium model for South Africa |
| title_sort | development of a financial computable general equilibrium model for south africa |
| topic | UCTD Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Financial model UPGEM Dynamic CGE UPGEM-F Monetary policy |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/2263/101300 https://doi.org/10.25403/UPresearchdata.28505099 |