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An analytical examination of retirement strategies in South Africa
Thesis (PhD (Actuarial Science))--University of Pretoria, 2025.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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University of Pretoria
2025
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| _version_ | 1867613611460919296 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author2 | Mare, Eben |
| author_browse | Mare, Eben |
| author_facet | Mare, Eben |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | © 2023 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. |
| description | Thesis (PhD (Actuarial Science))--University of Pretoria, 2025. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/101589 |
| institution | University of Pretoria (South Africa) |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:38:54.079Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | University of Pretoria |
| publisherStr | University of Pretoria |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| spelling | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/101589 An analytical examination of retirement strategies in South Africa Mare, Eben vanniekerk.dries@tuks.co.za Van Niekerk, Andries Jacobus UCTD Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Fugit Portfolio management Retirement Stochastic correlation Success rates Thesis (PhD (Actuarial Science))--University of Pretoria, 2025. A typical retirement strategy requires a multifaceted approach, considering various products like annuities and a well-structured investment portfolio. Balancing risks like mortality and longevity, along with factors such as healthcare costs, inflation, and tax implications, is essential for ensuring a secure retirement. Most retirees in South Africa face the challenge of either outliving their retirement savings or living below their means. Studies suggest a ‘safe’ withdrawal/spending rate of between 4% and 5%, which is below the average fund size-weighted drawdown rate of approximately 6.7% experienced in South Africa. The success rates of hybrid retirement strategies are evaluated, and the primary aim of these strategies is to enhance the overall success rate and sustainability of retirement portfolios. We assess the success rates of retirement strategies that incorporate foreign exposure by converting any gains in the S&P 500 back to South African Rand (ZAR), factoring in the exchange rate, which is modelled stochastically to simulate real-world currency fluctuations. Both US and South African inflation rates (CPI) are incorporated to ensure that success rates are evaluated in real terms, capturing the impact of inflation on retirees’ income. A core aspect of this study is the incorporation of stochastic correlation and volatility modelling. Using the hyperbolic tangent Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, we capture the dynamic, complex relationships between relevant asset classes, enabling realistic simulations of asset behaviour under varied market conditions. We analyse the success rates and fugits1of living annuities and various retirement strategies, within a South African context. Mathematics and Applied Mathematics PhD (Actuarial Science) Unrestricted Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences SDG-01:No poverty 2025-03-19T07:52:50Z 2025-03-19T07:52:50Z 2025-09 2025-03 Thesis * S2025 http://hdl.handle.net/2263/101589 https://doi.org/10.25403/UPresearchdata.28622480 en © 2023 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. application/pdf University of Pretoria |
| spellingShingle | UCTD Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Fugit Portfolio management Retirement Stochastic correlation Success rates An analytical examination of retirement strategies in South Africa |
| title | An analytical examination of retirement strategies in South Africa |
| title_full | An analytical examination of retirement strategies in South Africa |
| title_fullStr | An analytical examination of retirement strategies in South Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | An analytical examination of retirement strategies in South Africa |
| title_short | An analytical examination of retirement strategies in South Africa |
| title_sort | analytical examination of retirement strategies in south africa |
| topic | UCTD Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Fugit Portfolio management Retirement Stochastic correlation Success rates |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/2263/101589 https://doi.org/10.25403/UPresearchdata.28622480 |