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Benford’s law and electoral integrity: A forensic analysis of African elections
Mini Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2024.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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University of Pretoria
2025
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| _version_ | 1867613438252941312 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author2 | Saville, Adrian |
| author_browse | Saville, Adrian |
| author_facet | Saville, Adrian |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | © 2024 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. |
| description | Mini Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2024. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/103081 |
| institution | University of Pretoria (South Africa) |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:36:08.960Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | University of Pretoria |
| publisherStr | University of Pretoria |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| spelling | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/103081 Benford’s law and electoral integrity: A forensic analysis of African elections Saville, Adrian ichelp@gibs.co.za Vilakazi, Zwelithini Edward UCTD Benford's Law Elections Election Forensics Mini Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2024. This study examines the applicability of Benford’s Law (BL) as a forensic auditing tool for detecting anomalies in electoral results. BL, which predicts the expected distribution of leading digits in naturally occurring numerical datasets, has been widely employed in financial fraud detection and academic research validation. While prior studies have explored BL’s potential in election forensics, its reliability in distinguishing between genuine fraud and natural statistical deviations remains inconclusive. Using electoral data from Zimbabwe and Kenya, contrasted with benchmark cases from more stable democracies that are South Africa and Botswana, this research applies multiple BL digit tests (first-digit, second-digit, and first-two-digit analyses) alongside complementary statistical measures (chi-square, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Mean Absolute Deviation, and p-value tests). The results indicate that while BL can flag irregularities in election data, its limitations as a standalone tool necessitate caution. False positives may arise due to legitimate data quirks, and contextual factors can distort digit distribution patterns. The study concludes that BL should serve as a preliminary screening mechanism rather than definitive proof of electoral manipulation. To enhance election integrity, future forensic audits should integrate BL with advanced statistical techniques or machine learning models. These findings contribute to methodological debates in election forensics and provide practical recommendations for strengthening post-election audit frameworks. Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) MBA Unrestricted Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) SDG-16: Peace,justice and strong institutions SDG-17: Partnerships for the goals SDG-03: Good health and well-being SDG-08: Decent work and economic growth 2025-07-01T14:25:41Z 2025-07-01T14:25:41Z 2025-09 2025-04-14 Mini Dissertation * S2025 http://hdl.handle.net/2263/103081 en © 2024 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. application/pdf University of Pretoria |
| spellingShingle | UCTD Benford's Law Elections Election Forensics Benford’s law and electoral integrity: A forensic analysis of African elections |
| title | Benford’s law and electoral integrity: A forensic analysis of African elections |
| title_full | Benford’s law and electoral integrity: A forensic analysis of African elections |
| title_fullStr | Benford’s law and electoral integrity: A forensic analysis of African elections |
| title_full_unstemmed | Benford’s law and electoral integrity: A forensic analysis of African elections |
| title_short | Benford’s law and electoral integrity: A forensic analysis of African elections |
| title_sort | benford s law and electoral integrity a forensic analysis of african elections |
| topic | UCTD Benford's Law Elections Election Forensics |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/2263/103081 |