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Electricity system resilience for increasing variable renewable energy in South Africa - a framework
Thesis (PhD (Engineering Management))--University of Pretoria, 2026.
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University of Pretoria
2026
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| _version_ | 1869484012052938752 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author2 | Thopil, George A. |
| author_browse | Thopil, George A. |
| author_facet | Thopil, George A. |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | © 2024 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. |
| description | Thesis (PhD (Engineering Management))--University of Pretoria, 2026. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/108404 |
| institution | University of Pretoria (South Africa) |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-07-01T04:08:07.226Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publishDateRange | 2026 |
| publishDateSort | 2026 |
| publisher | University of Pretoria |
| publisherStr | University of Pretoria |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| spelling | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/108404 Electricity system resilience for increasing variable renewable energy in South Africa - a framework Thopil, George A. lungile.mashele@gmail.com Oerlemans, Leon A.G. Mashele, Lungile Mikateko Muhlavasi UCTD Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Energy Energy System Resilience Resilience Framework Analytical Hierarchical Process Thesis (PhD (Engineering Management))--University of Pretoria, 2026. Globally, there is an increase in variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, such as solar and wind power, which pose a threat to energy system resilience. As South Africa increases its VRE, both grid-tied and behind-the-meter, the system operator faces significant challenges in balancing the grid.This thesis begins by delving into these challenges, which are illustrated by the intermittency of VRE sources, as well as the ever-increasing duck curve. The literature review unpacks the evolution of resilience theory, beginning with the seminal contributions of CS Holling (Holling, 1973). It critically examines the various definitions that have emerged and compares their underlying principles. Resilience in energy systems broadly refers to the ability of the energy system to withstand, adapt to and recover from disruptions, while maintaining essential functions. This ability is crucial for integrating VRE into existing grids.The thesis explores the key distinctions between engineering and ecological perspectives on resilience, highlighting the implications for understanding and fostering resilience in complex systems.The thesis develops criteria for energy system resilience, which encompasses several key elements: the integration of renewables, grid flexibility, redundancy and diversification, accurate forecasting and predictive analytics, regulatory and policy support, community and stakeholder engagement, economic viability and environmental sustainability. These elements need to be considered when designing a framework for a stable and resilient energy system. Using case studies and a Delphi survey, the thesis identified four threats to energy system resilience: grid instability, infrastructure vulnerability, regulatory and policy coherence, and intermittency.By incorporating the energy system resilience criteria and threats, the energy system resilience framework proposed in this thesis aims to guide policymakers, energy planners and stakeholders in developing robust and adaptable energy systems. In testing the framework, a multi-criteria decision-making approach was used, specifically the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), to assign weights to the resilience criterion. This was followed by an AHP risk-adjusted process, where the likelihood and impact of the risks to energy system resilience were calculated to establish a risk score. This, together with the weightings, was computed to give an AHP risk-adjusted score, which was tested with a prominent expert in the field of resilience.Lastly, mitigants for energy system resilience were proposed as observed from the literature, as well as an innovative approach to balance increasing VRE in southern Africa with the unique threats the system faces. Through the development of the framework and the AHP risk-adjusted score, the thesis expands the body of knowledge in the field of energy system resilience, with a particular focus on southern Africa. This is done through a framework that enables energy systems to withstand and recover from disruptions, while adapting to future challenges, ultimately contributing to a sustainable and resilient energy future.This thesis underscores the imperative of a comprehensive and dynamic approach to energy system resilience as South Africa navigates its transition towards greater reliance on VRE. By synthesising theoretical insights, empirical evidence and practical frameworks, it lays the groundwork for informed decision making and strategic planning. The proposed energy system resilience framework is designed not only to address current vulnerabilities, but also to anticipate future disruptions, ensuring that the energy sector can adapt and thrive amid evolving challenges. Ultimately, this research aspires to foster a resilient, sustainable and inclusive energy future for South Africa, capable of supporting the ecological resilience of the energy system. Graduate School of Technology Management (GSTM) PhD (Engineering Management) Restricted Faculty of Engineering, Built Environment and Information Technology SDG-07: Affordable and clean energy 2026-02-18T13:00:22Z 2026-02-18T13:00:22Z 2026-05-18 2026-01-05 Thesis * A2026 http://hdl.handle.net/2263/108404 10.25403/UPresearchdata.31356379 en © 2024 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. application/pdf University of Pretoria |
| spellingShingle | UCTD Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Energy Energy System Resilience Resilience Framework Analytical Hierarchical Process Electricity system resilience for increasing variable renewable energy in South Africa - a framework |
| title | Electricity system resilience for increasing variable renewable energy in South Africa - a framework |
| title_full | Electricity system resilience for increasing variable renewable energy in South Africa - a framework |
| title_fullStr | Electricity system resilience for increasing variable renewable energy in South Africa - a framework |
| title_full_unstemmed | Electricity system resilience for increasing variable renewable energy in South Africa - a framework |
| title_short | Electricity system resilience for increasing variable renewable energy in South Africa - a framework |
| title_sort | electricity system resilience for increasing variable renewable energy in south africa a framework |
| topic | UCTD Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Energy Energy System Resilience Resilience Framework Analytical Hierarchical Process |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/2263/108404 |