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Epidemiological modelling for the control of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) in Egypt and Nigeria
Thesis (PhD (Epidemiology))--University of Pretoria, 2017.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1867613530845347840 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author2 | Fasina, Folorunso Oludayo |
| author_browse | Fasina, Folorunso Oludayo |
| author_facet | Fasina, Folorunso Oludayo |
| collection | Thesis |
| description | Thesis (PhD (Epidemiology))--University of Pretoria, 2017. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/110085 |
| institution | University of Pretoria (South Africa) |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:37:37.270Z |
| license_str | Not specified — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publishDateRange | 2026 |
| publishDateSort | 2026 |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| spelling | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/110085 Epidemiological modelling for the control of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) in Egypt and Nigeria Fasina, Folorunso Oludayo bumaetal@gmail.com Ahmed, Syed Sayeem Uddin Fasanmi, Olubunmi Gabriel Avian influenza H5N1 Epidemiology Africa Control Modelling Thesis (PhD (Epidemiology))--University of Pretoria, 2017. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 is endemic in Egypt and persistent in Nigeria with significant socio-economic and food security impacts. Implementing improved control strategies/eradication protocols demands the understanding of the epidemiology and associated risks in African countries, and epidemiological models can be valuable tools to achieve the objective. Mined data were reviewed for the morbidity andmortality of HPAI H5N1 in humans and poultry between 2003 and 2015. Over 11.6 million poultry were involved with mean morbidity and mortality of 48.7% and 40.2% respectively. These varies between countries and were dependent on delayed time-to-report infections. Humans case fatality rate was 62.3% globally with Indonesia, Egypt and Vietnam having the majority; also Egypt had a significant age–sex bias. Although biosecurity is a controleradication tool, its compliance in the live bird markets (LBM) was suspect to date. Using a 68-item checklist to evaluate the Nigerian and Egyptian LBMs, descriptive statistics and risk or protective factors were determined using univariable and multivariable logistic regression at p ≤ 0.05 for analysis; multitrading of wild birds with other animals and claims of hand disinfection postslaughter were risk factors while routine disinfection of LBMs, fencing and gates for LBMs and hand washing post-slaughter were protective factors. Almost all the LBMs complied poorly with most of the variables in the checklist (p ≤ 0.05). HPAI H5N1 risk maps in Nigeria were created using multi-criteria xiv decision model and mapping tool (ArcMap® version 10.5), and were used to predict potential future hotspots for HPAI H5N1 in Nigeria. Chicken and human population densities, previous outbreaks, meteorological precipitation and topography were critical contributors for outbreaks and the North Central, some South Western and South Southern states of Nigeria will continue to record outbreaks. Finally, using computational fluid dynamics and risk quantitation, the two-close sided LBMs presented with greater risk of zoonotic infection in humans than one-sided open markets, and borderless LBMs were least risky. Using a a live recombinant vector vaccine, vaccination may be used to prevent outbreaks and control the spread of HPAI H5N1 based on the outcome of vaccine study in this work but implementation should be as per country’s policy and based on ability to test infected from vaccinated poultry. HPAI H5N1 can be prevented or controlled through a practical and cost-effective surveillance cum biosecurity exercise and proper enlightenment of the illiterates handling poultry and poultry products through the use of pictorial materials.It was howeverconcluded that illiteracy and the LBM operators could play a critical role in the disruption of transmission of H5N1 virus infection through improved biosecurity and participatory epidemiology and multidisciplinary approach is also needed. Production Animal Studies PhD (Epidemiology) 2026-05-15T17:26:16Z 2026-05-15T17:26:16Z 18/01/16 2017 Thesis http://hdl.handle.net/2263/110085 en application/pdf |
| spellingShingle | Avian influenza H5N1 Epidemiology Africa Control Modelling Epidemiological modelling for the control of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) in Egypt and Nigeria |
| title | Epidemiological modelling for the control of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) in Egypt and Nigeria |
| title_full | Epidemiological modelling for the control of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) in Egypt and Nigeria |
| title_fullStr | Epidemiological modelling for the control of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) in Egypt and Nigeria |
| title_full_unstemmed | Epidemiological modelling for the control of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) in Egypt and Nigeria |
| title_short | Epidemiological modelling for the control of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) in Egypt and Nigeria |
| title_sort | epidemiological modelling for the control of highly pathogenic avian influenza h5n1 hpai h5n1 in egypt and nigeria |
| topic | Avian influenza H5N1 Epidemiology Africa Control Modelling |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/2263/110085 |