Full Text Available
Note: Clicking the button above will open the full text document at the original institutional repository in a new window.
An attempt to predict economic turnaround using proposed ‘leading leading’ indicators
Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2010.
Saved in:
| Other Authors: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Thesis |
| Published: |
University of Pretoria
2013
|
| Subjects: | |
| Tags: |
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1867613652573487104 |
|---|---|
| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author2 | Price, Gavin |
| author_browse | Price, Gavin |
| author_facet | Price, Gavin |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | © 2008, University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. |
| description | Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2010. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/23166 |
| institution | University of Pretoria (South Africa) |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:39:33.363Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publishDateRange | 2013 |
| publishDateSort | 2013 |
| publisher | University of Pretoria |
| publisherStr | University of Pretoria |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| spelling | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/23166 An attempt to predict economic turnaround using proposed ‘leading leading’ indicators Price, Gavin upetd@up.ac.za Martin, Rodney UCTD Economic history Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2010. This exploratory research attempted to devise an additional simple means to predict economic change in South Africa. It was envisaged that economic turnaround could be predicted at an earlier stage than the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index and the South African Reserve Bank’s Leading Indicator using calculus and existing economic indicators. This research used the inflection point of the rate of change of the South African Reserve Bank’s Leading Indicator as the possible predictor of possible economic change in South Africa. This calculation produced what was referred to as the Leading-Leading Indicators. The research also analysed, using graphical and statistical methods, the ability of the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index and the South African Reserve Bank’s Leading Indicator to predict economic change in South Africa. The research indicated that the proposed Leading-Leading Indicators were a poor predictor of economic change. It also indicated that whilst the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index and the South African Reserve Bank’s Leading Indicator appeared to have good predicting possibilities when analysed graphically, due to autocorrelation, statistically, these economic indicators are also poor predictors of economic change. Copyright Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) unrestricted 2013-09-06T14:41:45Z 2010-05-28 2013-09-06T14:41:45Z 2010-03-13 2010-05-28 2010-03-13 Dissertation Martin, R 2008, An attempt to predict economic turnaround using proposed ‘leading leading’ indicators, MBA dissertation, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, viewed yymmdd < http://hdl.handle.net/2263/23166 > G10/50/mh http://hdl.handle.net/2263/23166 http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-03132010-165542/ © 2008, University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. application/pdf University of Pretoria |
| spellingShingle | UCTD Economic history An attempt to predict economic turnaround using proposed ‘leading leading’ indicators |
| title | An attempt to predict economic turnaround using proposed ‘leading leading’ indicators |
| title_full | An attempt to predict economic turnaround using proposed ‘leading leading’ indicators |
| title_fullStr | An attempt to predict economic turnaround using proposed ‘leading leading’ indicators |
| title_full_unstemmed | An attempt to predict economic turnaround using proposed ‘leading leading’ indicators |
| title_short | An attempt to predict economic turnaround using proposed ‘leading leading’ indicators |
| title_sort | attempt to predict economic turnaround using proposed leading leading indicators |
| topic | UCTD Economic history |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/2263/23166 http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-03132010-165542/ |