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Influenza pandemic modelling for South Africa with an analysis of the predicted impact on the healthcare sector
Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2010.
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| Format: | Thesis |
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University of Pretoria
2013
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| _version_ | 1867613581612154880 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author2 | Raina, Rajinder |
| author_browse | Raina, Rajinder |
| author_facet | Raina, Rajinder |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | © 2006 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria |
| description | Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2010. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/23686 |
| institution | University of Pretoria (South Africa) |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:38:25.653Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publishDateRange | 2013 |
| publishDateSort | 2013 |
| publisher | University of Pretoria |
| publisherStr | University of Pretoria |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| spelling | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/23686 Influenza pandemic modelling for South Africa with an analysis of the predicted impact on the healthcare sector Raina, Rajinder upetd@up.ac.za Staples, Glenn William UCTD Medical care Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2010. The predicted impact of a potential future influenza pandemic was modelled for South Africa using a multi-state Markov transition model based on key parameters from the pandemics of the twentieth century. The number of individuals falling into each of the following categories was predicted for each week in the pandemic: healthy (uninfected); infected (no treatment); infected (out-patient treatment); infected (hospital admission); infected (ICU admission); healthy (flu recovery) and dead. Four scenarios were modelled. The Mild and Severe Pandemic Scenarios were then applied to estimations of current hospital and ICU bed spare capacity in each province to provide a prediction of the impact of a pandemic on hospital capacity. The Mild Pandemic Scenario, based on the 1957 and 1968 pandemics, showed a 9.1% total infection rate and a 0.13% mortality rate. Hospital bed capacity is stretched close to capacity, but does not exceed capacity in any province. ICU bed capacity is exceeded for all provinces during the peak of the pandemic (3-7 weeks). The Severe Pandemic Scenario, based on the 1918 pandemic, had a 22% total infection rate with a 2.5% mortality rate. Hospital and ICU bed capacities were exceeded in all provinces for much of the pandemic. Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) unrestricted 2013-09-06T15:44:24Z 2010-07-02 2013-09-06T15:44:24Z 2007-04-05 2010-07-02 2010-04-01 Dissertation Staples, G 2006, Influenza pandemic modeling for South Africa with an analysis of the predicted impact on the healthcare sector, MBA dissertation, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, viewed yymmdd < http://hdl.handle.net/2263/23686 > G10/272/ag http://hdl.handle.net/2263/23686 http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-04012010-123113/ © 2006 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria application/pdf University of Pretoria |
| spellingShingle | UCTD Medical care Influenza pandemic modelling for South Africa with an analysis of the predicted impact on the healthcare sector |
| title | Influenza pandemic modelling for South Africa with an analysis of the predicted impact on the healthcare sector |
| title_full | Influenza pandemic modelling for South Africa with an analysis of the predicted impact on the healthcare sector |
| title_fullStr | Influenza pandemic modelling for South Africa with an analysis of the predicted impact on the healthcare sector |
| title_full_unstemmed | Influenza pandemic modelling for South Africa with an analysis of the predicted impact on the healthcare sector |
| title_short | Influenza pandemic modelling for South Africa with an analysis of the predicted impact on the healthcare sector |
| title_sort | influenza pandemic modelling for south africa with an analysis of the predicted impact on the healthcare sector |
| topic | UCTD Medical care |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/2263/23686 http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-04012010-123113/ |