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Biodiversity and climate change : a South African perspective
Thesis (PhD(Zoology))--University of Pretoria, 2006.
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University of Pretoria
2013
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| _version_ | 1867613518130315264 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author2 | Van Jaarsveld, A.S. |
| author_browse | Van Jaarsveld, A.S. |
| author_facet | Van Jaarsveld, A.S. |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | © 2004, University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. |
| description | Thesis (PhD(Zoology))--University of Pretoria, 2006. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/24488 |
| institution | University of Pretoria (South Africa) |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:37:25.198Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publishDateRange | 2013 |
| publishDateSort | 2013 |
| publisher | University of Pretoria |
| publisherStr | University of Pretoria |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| spelling | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/24488 Biodiversity and climate change : a South African perspective Van Jaarsveld, A.S. upetd@ais.up.ac.za Erasmus, Barend Frederik Nel Biological diversity south africa Climatic changes south africa UCTD Thesis (PhD(Zoology))--University of Pretoria, 2006. The responsiveness of South African fauna to climate change events is poorly documented and not routinely incorporated into regional conservation planning exercises. The lack of detailed distribution data for appreciable numbers of taxa demands a modeling solution. We develop a climate envelope model to predict potential distribution range changes. The model can be used to interpolate the distributions of poorly sampled taxa as well as predict responses to a changing climate. It is predicted that species from the more arid western parts of South Africa will be subject to severe range contraction and range shifts whereas the species from the more mesic eastern parts will experience range contraction with limited range shift. Species that could act as climate change indicator taxa are identified based on their predicted extreme range change responses to climate change. Red-data and vulnerable species were more likely to display range change than less threatened species. Without mitigatory action, conservation areas are likely to lose species. The likelihood of successful range shifts will be affected by the nature of novel communities, habitat suitability and the degree of land transformation encountered. Given the extent of the predicted spatial responses, conservation planners can no longer afford to ignore future climate impacts on species distribution patterns. Disease risk profiles are also expected to change with climate; currently, susceptible forestry plantations exist in areas which may be invaded by an economically important pathogen. Resistant clones should be planted in these future high-risk areas. A decrease in precipitation is an important feature of a future climate. This decrease is expected to impact on the agricultural sector by reducing total employment as producers switch to a more extensive production pattern. The total decline in welfare, therefore, will fall disproportionately on the poor. Climate change presents a significant treat to the South African biodiversity estate, and our ability to manage this transition in the face of changing and competing land uses. Adaptation and mitigation options do exist but they are hampered by a lack of definitive analyses, and ultimately, political will to prioritise the threat of climate change. Zoology and Entomology unrestricted 2013-09-06T17:41:03Z 2005-05-19 2013-09-06T17:41:03Z 2004-04-24 2006-05-19 2005-05-09 Thesis Erasmus, B 2004, Biodiversity and climate change : a South African perspective, PhD(Zoology) thesis, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, viewed yymmdd < http://hdl.handle.net/2263/24488 > http://hdl.handle.net/2263/24488 http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-05092005-145224/ © 2004, University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf University of Pretoria |
| spellingShingle | Biological diversity south africa Climatic changes south africa UCTD Biodiversity and climate change : a South African perspective |
| title | Biodiversity and climate change : a South African perspective |
| title_full | Biodiversity and climate change : a South African perspective |
| title_fullStr | Biodiversity and climate change : a South African perspective |
| title_full_unstemmed | Biodiversity and climate change : a South African perspective |
| title_short | Biodiversity and climate change : a South African perspective |
| title_sort | biodiversity and climate change a south african perspective |
| topic | Biological diversity south africa Climatic changes south africa UCTD |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/2263/24488 http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-05092005-145224/ |