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Verification of South African Weather Service operational seasonal forecasts
Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2008.
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| Format: | Thesis |
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University of Pretoria
2013
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| _version_ | 1867613648441049088 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author2 | Landman, Willem Adolf |
| author_browse | Landman, Willem Adolf |
| author_facet | Landman, Willem Adolf |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | © 2008, University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. |
| description | Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2008. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/27145 |
| institution | University of Pretoria (South Africa) |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:39:29.475Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publishDateRange | 2013 |
| publishDateSort | 2013 |
| publisher | University of Pretoria |
| publisherStr | University of Pretoria |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| spelling | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/27145 Verification of South African Weather Service operational seasonal forecasts Landman, Willem Adolf Moatshe, Peggy Seanokeng South African Weather Service Reliability diagram Roc Relative operating characteristics Rd Seasonal forecast UCTD Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2008. The South African Weather Service rainfall seasonal forecasts are verified for the period of January-February-March to October-November-December 1998-2004. These forecasts are compiled using different models from different institutions. Probability seasonal forecasts can be evaluated using different skill measures, but in this study the Ranked Probability Skill Score (RPSS), Reliability Diagram (RD) and Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) are used. The RPSS is presented in the form of maps whereas the RD and ROC are analyses are presented in the form of graphs. The aim of the study is to present skill estimates of operational seasonal forecasts issued at South African Weather Service A limited number of forecasts show positive RPSS value throughout the validation period. From RD and ROC analysis, there is no skill in predicting the normal category as compared to below-normal and above-normal categories. Notwithstanding, the frequency diagrams show that the normal category was often given a large weight in the operational forecasts. The value of verifying seasonal forecast accuracy from the user’s perspective is important. The understanding of seasonal forecast performance helps decision makers to determine when and how to respond to expected climate anomalies. Therefore the frequent update of the seasonal forecast verification is important in order to help Users make better decisions. Copyright Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology Unrestricted 2013-09-07T10:46:30Z 2009-09-04 2013-09-07T10:46:30Z 2009-04-17 2008 2009-08-11 Dissertation Moatshe, PS 2008, Verification of South African Weather Service operational seasonal forecasts, MSc dissertation, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, viewed yymmdd < http://hdl.handle.net/2263/27145 > E1360/gm http://hdl.handle.net/2263/27145 http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-08112009-131703/ © 2008, University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. application/pdf University of Pretoria |
| spellingShingle | South African Weather Service Reliability diagram Roc Relative operating characteristics Rd Seasonal forecast UCTD Verification of South African Weather Service operational seasonal forecasts |
| title | Verification of South African Weather Service operational seasonal forecasts |
| title_full | Verification of South African Weather Service operational seasonal forecasts |
| title_fullStr | Verification of South African Weather Service operational seasonal forecasts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Verification of South African Weather Service operational seasonal forecasts |
| title_short | Verification of South African Weather Service operational seasonal forecasts |
| title_sort | verification of south african weather service operational seasonal forecasts |
| topic | South African Weather Service Reliability diagram Roc Relative operating characteristics Rd Seasonal forecast UCTD |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/2263/27145 http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-08112009-131703/ |