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The use of artificial neural networks to enhance numerical weather prediction model forecasts of temperature and rainfall
Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2009.
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| Format: | Thesis |
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University of Pretoria
2013
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| _version_ | 1867613481718513664 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author2 | Rautenbach, C.J. de W. (Cornelis Johannes de Wet) |
| author_browse | Rautenbach, C.J. de W. (Cornelis Johannes de Wet) |
| author_facet | Rautenbach, C.J. de W. (Cornelis Johannes de Wet) |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | ©University of Pretoria 2008 E1247/ |
| description | Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2009. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/27979 |
| institution | University of Pretoria (South Africa) |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:36:50.456Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publishDateRange | 2013 |
| publishDateSort | 2013 |
| publisher | University of Pretoria |
| publisherStr | University of Pretoria |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| spelling | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/27979 The use of artificial neural networks to enhance numerical weather prediction model forecasts of temperature and rainfall Rautenbach, C.J. de W. (Cornelis Johannes de Wet) estelle.marx@weathersa.co.za Tennant, W. Marx, Hester Gerbrecht Rainfall Forecasts of temperature Weather UCTD Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2009. Statistical post-processing techniques are used to remove systematic biases in modeled data. Models have shortcomings in the physical parameterization of weather events and have the inability to handle sub-grid phenomena successfully. The accuracy of forecasts interpolated to station points is limited by the horizontal resolution of the model. The magnitude of the bias at a station point depends upon geographical location and season. A neural network (NN) is a statistical downscaling method that seeks to model the linear or non-linear relationship between a set of different predictors and the predictand. NN’s have a training rule whereby the weights of connections between predictors and the predictand, are adjusted on the basis of the data. NN systems have been developed by using as input, different model variables from the NCEP Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) and Eta model to forecast minimum/maximum temperature and rainfall (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) and Probability of Precipitation (PoP)), respectively. Results show some potential for improved NN forecasts over the forecast generated by the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The implementation of a NN system can serve as a guidance tool in operational forecasting but with one difficulty that the NWP model has to be frozen, meaning no upgrades or changes on the model. Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology Unrestricted 2013-09-07T12:40:43Z 2009-04-16 2013-09-07T12:40:43Z 2008-09-03 2009-04-16 2009-02-10 Dissertation 2008 E1247/gm http://hdl.handle.net/2263/27979 http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-02102009-161401/ ©University of Pretoria 2008 E1247/ application/pdf University of Pretoria |
| spellingShingle | Rainfall Forecasts of temperature Weather UCTD The use of artificial neural networks to enhance numerical weather prediction model forecasts of temperature and rainfall |
| title | The use of artificial neural networks to enhance numerical weather prediction model forecasts of temperature and rainfall |
| title_full | The use of artificial neural networks to enhance numerical weather prediction model forecasts of temperature and rainfall |
| title_fullStr | The use of artificial neural networks to enhance numerical weather prediction model forecasts of temperature and rainfall |
| title_full_unstemmed | The use of artificial neural networks to enhance numerical weather prediction model forecasts of temperature and rainfall |
| title_short | The use of artificial neural networks to enhance numerical weather prediction model forecasts of temperature and rainfall |
| title_sort | use of artificial neural networks to enhance numerical weather prediction model forecasts of temperature and rainfall |
| topic | Rainfall Forecasts of temperature Weather UCTD |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/2263/27979 http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-02102009-161401/ |