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Development and verification of a short-range ensemble numerical weather prediction system for Southern Africa
Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2014.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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University of Pretoria
2014
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| _version_ | 1867613602095038464 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author2 | Landman, Willem Adolf |
| author_browse | Landman, Willem Adolf |
| author_facet | Landman, Willem Adolf |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | © 2014 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. |
| description | Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2014. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/41185 |
| institution | University of Pretoria (South Africa) |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:38:45.051Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publishDateRange | 2014 |
| publishDateSort | 2014 |
| publisher | University of Pretoria |
| publisherStr | University of Pretoria |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| spelling | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/41185 Development and verification of a short-range ensemble numerical weather prediction system for Southern Africa Landman, Willem Adolf ableroo@gmail.com Park, Ruth Jean Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) Numerical weather prediction system UCTD Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2014. This research has been conducted in order to develop a short-range ensemble numerical weather prediction system over southern Africa using the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM). An ensemble prediction system (EPS) combines several individual weather model setups into an average forecast system where each member contributes to the final weather forecast. Four different EPSs were configured and rainfall forecasts simulated for seven days ahead for the summer months of January and February, 2009 and 2010, for high (15 km) and low (50 km) resolution over the southern African domain. Statistical analysis was performed on the forecasts so as to determine which EPS was the most skilful at simulating rainfall. Measurements that were used to determine the skill of the EPSs were: reliability diagrams, relative operating characteristics, the Brier skill score and the root mean square error. The results show that the largest ensemble is consistently the most skilful for all forecasts for both the high and the low resolution cases. The higher resolution forecasts were also seen to be more skilful than the forecasts made at the low resolution. These findings conclude that the largest ensemble at high resolution is the best system to predict rainfall over southern Africa using the CCAM. gm2014 Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology unrestricted 2014-08-12T08:47:15Z 2014-08-12T08:47:15Z 2014-04-23 2014 Dissertation Park, RJ 2014, Development and verification of a short-range ensemble numerical weather prediction system for Southern Africa, MSc dissertation, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, viewed yymmdd <http://hdl.handle.net/2263/41185> E14/4/356/gm http://hdl.handle.net/2263/41185 en © 2014 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. application/pdf University of Pretoria |
| spellingShingle | Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) Numerical weather prediction system UCTD Development and verification of a short-range ensemble numerical weather prediction system for Southern Africa |
| title | Development and verification of a short-range ensemble numerical weather prediction system for Southern Africa |
| title_full | Development and verification of a short-range ensemble numerical weather prediction system for Southern Africa |
| title_fullStr | Development and verification of a short-range ensemble numerical weather prediction system for Southern Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and verification of a short-range ensemble numerical weather prediction system for Southern Africa |
| title_short | Development and verification of a short-range ensemble numerical weather prediction system for Southern Africa |
| title_sort | development and verification of a short range ensemble numerical weather prediction system for southern africa |
| topic | Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) Numerical weather prediction system UCTD |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/2263/41185 |