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A probabilistic impact-focussed early warning system for flash floods in support of disaster management in South Africa
Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2015.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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University of Pretoria
2015
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| _version_ | 1867613703689469952 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author2 | Rautenbach, C.J. de W. (Cornelis Johannes de Wet) |
| author_browse | Rautenbach, C.J. de W. (Cornelis Johannes de Wet) |
| author_facet | Rautenbach, C.J. de W. (Cornelis Johannes de Wet) |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | © 2015 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. |
| description | Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2015. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/44331 |
| institution | University of Pretoria (South Africa) |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:40:22.099Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publishDateRange | 2015 |
| publishDateSort | 2015 |
| publisher | University of Pretoria |
| publisherStr | University of Pretoria |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| spelling | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/44331 A probabilistic impact-focussed early warning system for flash floods in support of disaster management in South Africa Rautenbach, C.J. de W. (Cornelis Johannes de Wet) eugene.poolman@weathersa.co.za Vogel, Coleen H. Poolman, Eugene Rene Weather hazards in South Africa Weather Impact Forecasting System (SWIFS) Forecasting weather conditions The forecasting model component Rainfall forecast UCTD Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2015. The development of the Severe Weather Impact Forecasting System (SWIFS) for flash flood hazards in South Africa is described in this thesis. Impact forecasting addresses the need to move from forecasting weather conditions to forecasting the consequential impact of these conditions on people and their livelihoods. SWIFS aims to guide disaster managers to take early action to minimise the adverse effects of flash floods focussing on hotspots where the largest impact is expected. The first component of SWIFS produced an 18-hour probabilistic outlook of potential occurrence of flash floods. This required the development of an ensemble forecast system of rainfall for small river basins (the forecasting model component), based on the rainfall forecast of a deterministic numerical weather prediction model, to provide an 18-hour lead-time, taking into account forecast uncertainty. The second component of SWIFS covered the event specific societal and structural impacts of these potential flash floods, based on the interaction of the potential occurrence of flash floods with the generalised vulnerability to flash floods of the affected region (the impact model component). The impact model required an investigation into the concepts of regional vulnerability to flash floods, and the development of relevant descriptive and mathematical definitions in the context of impact forecasting. The definition developed in the study links impact forecasting to the likelihood and magnitude of adverse impacts to communities under threat, based on their vulnerability and due to an imminent severe weather hazard. Case studies provided evidence that the concept of SWIFS can produce useful information to disaster managers to identify areas most likely to be adversely affected in advance of a hazardous event and to decide on appropriate distribution of their resources between the various hotspots where the largest impacts would be. SWIFS contributes to the current international research on short-term impact forecasting by focussing on forecasting the impacts of flash floods in a developing country with its limited spatial vulnerability information. It provides user-oriented information in support of disaster manager decision-making through additional lead-time of the potential of flash floods, and the likely impact of the flooding. The study provides a firm basis for future enhancement of SWIFS to other severe weather hazards in South Africa. gm2015 Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology PhD Unrestricted 2015-04-13T12:19:09Z 2015-04-13T12:19:09Z 2015-04-16 2015 Thesis Poolman, ER 2015, A probabilistic impact-focussed early warning system for flash floods in support of disaster management in South Africa, PhD Thesis, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, viewed yymmdd <http://hdl.handle.net/2263/44331> d15/4/13/gm http://hdl.handle.net/2263/44331 en © 2015 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. application/pdf University of Pretoria |
| spellingShingle | Weather hazards in South Africa Weather Impact Forecasting System (SWIFS) Forecasting weather conditions The forecasting model component Rainfall forecast UCTD A probabilistic impact-focussed early warning system for flash floods in support of disaster management in South Africa |
| title | A probabilistic impact-focussed early warning system for flash floods in support of disaster management in South Africa |
| title_full | A probabilistic impact-focussed early warning system for flash floods in support of disaster management in South Africa |
| title_fullStr | A probabilistic impact-focussed early warning system for flash floods in support of disaster management in South Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | A probabilistic impact-focussed early warning system for flash floods in support of disaster management in South Africa |
| title_short | A probabilistic impact-focussed early warning system for flash floods in support of disaster management in South Africa |
| title_sort | probabilistic impact focussed early warning system for flash floods in support of disaster management in south africa |
| topic | Weather hazards in South Africa Weather Impact Forecasting System (SWIFS) Forecasting weather conditions The forecasting model component Rainfall forecast UCTD |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/2263/44331 |