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Predictability of seasonal rainfall and inflows for Water Resource Management at Lake Kariba
Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2015.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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University of Pretoria
2015
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| _version_ | 1867613491469221888 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author2 | Landman, Willem Adolf |
| author_browse | Landman, Willem Adolf |
| author_facet | Landman, Willem Adolf |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | © 2015 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. |
| description | Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2015. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/44334 |
| institution | University of Pretoria (South Africa) |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:36:59.722Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publishDateRange | 2015 |
| publishDateSort | 2015 |
| publisher | University of Pretoria |
| publisherStr | University of Pretoria |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| spelling | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/44334 Predictability of seasonal rainfall and inflows for Water Resource Management at Lake Kariba Landman, Willem Adolf shephido@yahoo.com Muchuru, Shepherd Seasonal rainfall Inflows for Water Resource Management Lake Kariba Southern Africa Reservoir inflows Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2015. The Lake Kariba catchment area in southern Africa has one of the most variable climates of any major river basin, with an extreme range of conditions across the catchment and through time. The study characterized rainfall variability across the Lake Kariba catchment area, followed by describing prediction models for seasonal rainfall totals over the catchment and for inflows into Lake Kariba. The thesis therefore improved our understanding of rainfall variations over central southern Africa and provided evidence on how seasonal forecasts can be applied in order to potentially improve decision making in dam management. The prediction of the seasons in which floods or droughts are most likely to occur involves studying the characteristics of rainfall and inflows within these extreme seasons. The study started off by analyzing monthly rainfall data through statistical analysis. To determine the predictability of seasonal rainfall totals over the Lake Kariba catchment area, this study used low-level atmospheric circulation of a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model over southern Africa, statistically downscaled to seasonal rainfall totals over the catchment. The verification of hindcasts showed that rainfall over the catchment is predictable at extended lead-times. Seasonal climate forecasts need to be integrated into application models in order to help with decision-making processes. The use of hydro-meteorological models may be proven effective for reservoir operations since accurate and reliable prediction of reservoir inflows can provide balanced solution to the problems faced by dam or reservoir managers. In order to reliably predict reservoir inflows for decision-making, the study investigated the use of a combination of physical and empirical models to predict seasonal inflows into the Lake. Two predictions systems were considered. First, antecedent seasonal rainfall totals over the upper Zambezi catchment were used as predictors in a statistical model for estimating seasonal inflows into Lake Kariba. The second and more sophisticated method used predicted low-level atmospheric circulation of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model downscaled to the inflows. Inflow hindcasts performed best during the austral mid-summer season of DJF (seasonal onset of inflows) and the autumn season of MAM (main inflow season). gm2015 Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology PhD Unrestricted 2015-04-13T12:19:37Z 2015-04-13T12:19:37Z 2015-04-16 2015 Thesis Muchuru, S 2015, Predictability of seasonal rainfall and inflows for Water Resource Management at Lake Kariba, PhD Thesis, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, viewed yymmdd <http://hdl.handle.net/2263/44334> D15/4/14 http://hdl.handle.net/2263/44334 en © 2015 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. application/pdf University of Pretoria |
| spellingShingle | Seasonal rainfall Inflows for Water Resource Management Lake Kariba Southern Africa Reservoir inflows Predictability of seasonal rainfall and inflows for Water Resource Management at Lake Kariba |
| title | Predictability of seasonal rainfall and inflows for Water Resource Management at Lake Kariba |
| title_full | Predictability of seasonal rainfall and inflows for Water Resource Management at Lake Kariba |
| title_fullStr | Predictability of seasonal rainfall and inflows for Water Resource Management at Lake Kariba |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predictability of seasonal rainfall and inflows for Water Resource Management at Lake Kariba |
| title_short | Predictability of seasonal rainfall and inflows for Water Resource Management at Lake Kariba |
| title_sort | predictability of seasonal rainfall and inflows for water resource management at lake kariba |
| topic | Seasonal rainfall Inflows for Water Resource Management Lake Kariba Southern Africa Reservoir inflows |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/2263/44334 |