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Evaluating Human-Processed Forecasts Provided to the Aviation Industry in South Africa
Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2015.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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University of Pretoria
2015
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| _version_ | 1867613585201430528 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author2 | Landman, Willem Adolf |
| author_browse | Landman, Willem Adolf |
| author_facet | Landman, Willem Adolf |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | © 2015 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. |
| description | Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2015. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/45916 |
| institution | University of Pretoria (South Africa) |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:38:29.059Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publishDateRange | 2015 |
| publishDateSort | 2015 |
| publisher | University of Pretoria |
| publisherStr | University of Pretoria |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| spelling | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/45916 Evaluating Human-Processed Forecasts Provided to the Aviation Industry in South Africa Landman, Willem Adolf Jacobs, Quinton UCTD Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2015. The main objective of this study is to determine whether human-forecaster at the main airports of South Africa add value to the raw numerical weather prediction model output when they provide forecast services to the aviation industry. Data set pairs of weather observations made at these airports and terminal aerodrome forecasts were constructed for the three forecast systems: the human-forecaster, persistence forecast and the raw output from the 12 km resolution the Unified Model administered by the South African Weather Service. These three data set pairs were independently evaluated by the in house developed forecast verification system of the South African Weather Service. A Monte Carlo method was used to determine the significance of the verification results obtained from calculating the proportion correct, hit rate, false alarm ratio, critical success index, Heidke skill score and the Pierce skill score of the various forecasts. In general, it was found that the forecaster-adapted forecasts are superior to the raw model output, thus providing the evidence that the aviation industry may benefit most from forecasts routinely issued by South African Weather Service forecasters. tm2015 Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology MSc Unrestricted 2015-07-02T11:05:57Z 2015-07-02T11:05:57Z 2015/04/16 2015 Dissertation Jacobs, Q 2015, Evaluating Human-Processed Forecasts Provided to the Aviation Industry in South Africa, MSc Dissertation, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, viewed yymmdd <http://hdl.handle.net/2263/45916> A2015 http://hdl.handle.net/2263/45916 en © 2015 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. application/pdf University of Pretoria |
| spellingShingle | UCTD Evaluating Human-Processed Forecasts Provided to the Aviation Industry in South Africa |
| title | Evaluating Human-Processed Forecasts Provided to the Aviation Industry in South Africa |
| title_full | Evaluating Human-Processed Forecasts Provided to the Aviation Industry in South Africa |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating Human-Processed Forecasts Provided to the Aviation Industry in South Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating Human-Processed Forecasts Provided to the Aviation Industry in South Africa |
| title_short | Evaluating Human-Processed Forecasts Provided to the Aviation Industry in South Africa |
| title_sort | evaluating human processed forecasts provided to the aviation industry in south africa |
| topic | UCTD |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/2263/45916 |