Full Text Available
Note: Clicking the button above will open the full text document at the original institutional repository in a new window.
A spatio-temporal probability model of cattle and African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) contact as a proxy for foot-and-mouth disease risk : a case study at the wildlife-livestock interface of the Kruger National Park, South Africa
Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2015.
Saved in:
| Other Authors: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
University of Pretoria
2019
|
| Subjects: | |
| Tags: |
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1867613676270256128 |
|---|---|
| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author2 | Knobel, Darryn Leslie |
| author_browse | Knobel, Darryn Leslie |
| author_facet | Knobel, Darryn Leslie |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | © 2019 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. |
| description | Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2015. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/71487 |
| institution | University of Pretoria (South Africa) |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:39:56.028Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publishDateRange | 2019 |
| publishDateSort | 2019 |
| publisher | University of Pretoria |
| publisherStr | University of Pretoria |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| spelling | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/71487 A spatio-temporal probability model of cattle and African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) contact as a proxy for foot-and-mouth disease risk : a case study at the wildlife-livestock interface of the Kruger National Park, South Africa Knobel, Darryn Leslie lvs@vodamail.co.za Hendrickx, Guy Van Schalkwyk, Ockert Louis UCTD Foot-and-mouth disease Wildlife-livestock interface Kruger National Park Communally-farmed cattle Cattle demographics Cattle movement patterns Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2015. The work presented here investigates a number of important components in the epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) at the wildlife-livestock interface along the Kruger National Park (KNP) and its adjoining private and provincial nature reserves (APNR). This epidemiological setting is unique and complex, mainly due to the presence of African buffaloes (Syncerus caffer) persistently infected with the Southern African Territories (SAT) strains of the FMD virus. Despite a great deal of experimentation and field research, FMD transmission from both persistently- and acutely-infected buffaloes to cattle is still poorly understood, although it is accepted that the two species have to be in close contact for it to occur. And even then, ‘close contact’ is ill-defined. Comparisons of three intensive study sites in the FMD protection zone, comprising both communally-farmed as well as smallholder cattle rangelands, were conducted to better understand this livestock system and determine livestock distribution patterns. This vast heterogeneous landscape of the FMD protection zone follows a latitudinal gradient of both human density and rainfall (increasing from north to south), which is reflected in similar gradients in cattle densities, the number of households owning cattle, consumption patterns as well as herding practice, whilst inversely associated with cattle sales and calf mortality rates. Distribution studies of the cattle in these study sites revealed a dry season dependence on water, and contraction of home ranges around preferred habitat during the warm wet season. Herding, or the lack thereof, was evident in daily activity budgets of these cattle. Interestingly, seasonal differences in stray buffalo dispersal patterns were the inverse of their domestic counterparts, being condensed along the fence line during the dry season. Stray buffalo events mainly consisted of single animals or very small groups, predominated by adult bulls. Most of these animals were destroyed soon after straying from the FMD infected zone, although some managed to move into areas with unvaccinated cattle, especially along major river courses. Swift removal of stray buffaloes from livestock areas is paramount, since recent outbreaks all share the characteristic of stray buffaloes being reported roaming the outbreak-area over extended periods (months) prior to an outbreak. Combining cattle and stray buffalo habitat suitability estimates revealed areas likely to facilitate contact between these species, which was mostly driven by cattle dispersal into those condensed areas along the fence and rivers more suitable for stray buffaloes during the cool dry season. This is also the season when acute infection with FMD is most likely in buffaloes. Yet, when adjusting cattle habitat suitability to incorporate their density, the concentration of preferred habitat during the warm wet season forms small pockets of high cattle density, amplifying contact risk with stray buffaloes in these areas. Simulation of stray buffalo movements along a least cost path, which incorporates fence permeability, is shown to be a useful visual aid to finding high-risk stray buffalo movement corridors. Contact-risk models performed well in retrospectively identifying high risk areas during recent outbreaks. These risk outputs have value in informing risk-based surveillance and strategic vaccination programs as well as in the delineation of disease control zones. Veterinary Tropical Diseases PhD Unrestricted 2019-09-30T09:31:16Z 2019-09-30T09:31:16Z 2015 2015 Thesis Van Schalkwyk, OL 2015, A spatio-temporal probability model of cattle and African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) contact as a proxy for foot-and-mouth disease risk : a case study at the wildlife-livestock interface of the Kruger National Park, South Africa, PhD Thesis, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, viewed yymmdd <http://hdl.handle.net/2263/71487> A2015 http://hdl.handle.net/2263/71487 en © 2019 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. application/pdf University of Pretoria |
| spellingShingle | UCTD Foot-and-mouth disease Wildlife-livestock interface Kruger National Park Communally-farmed cattle Cattle demographics Cattle movement patterns A spatio-temporal probability model of cattle and African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) contact as a proxy for foot-and-mouth disease risk : a case study at the wildlife-livestock interface of the Kruger National Park, South Africa |
| title | A spatio-temporal probability model of cattle and African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) contact as a proxy for foot-and-mouth disease risk : a case study at the wildlife-livestock interface of the Kruger National Park, South Africa |
| title_full | A spatio-temporal probability model of cattle and African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) contact as a proxy for foot-and-mouth disease risk : a case study at the wildlife-livestock interface of the Kruger National Park, South Africa |
| title_fullStr | A spatio-temporal probability model of cattle and African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) contact as a proxy for foot-and-mouth disease risk : a case study at the wildlife-livestock interface of the Kruger National Park, South Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | A spatio-temporal probability model of cattle and African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) contact as a proxy for foot-and-mouth disease risk : a case study at the wildlife-livestock interface of the Kruger National Park, South Africa |
| title_short | A spatio-temporal probability model of cattle and African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) contact as a proxy for foot-and-mouth disease risk : a case study at the wildlife-livestock interface of the Kruger National Park, South Africa |
| title_sort | spatio temporal probability model of cattle and african buffalo syncerus caffer contact as a proxy for foot and mouth disease risk a case study at the wildlife livestock interface of the kruger national park south africa |
| topic | UCTD Foot-and-mouth disease Wildlife-livestock interface Kruger National Park Communally-farmed cattle Cattle demographics Cattle movement patterns |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/2263/71487 |