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Modelling the risks of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks and assessing the effectiveness of vaccination in South Africa
Thesis (PhD (Veterinary Epidemiology))--University of Pretoria, 2020.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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University of Pretoria
2020
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| _version_ | 1867613698879651840 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author2 | Fosgate, Geoffrey Theodore |
| author_browse | Fosgate, Geoffrey Theodore |
| author_facet | Fosgate, Geoffrey Theodore |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | © 2019 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. |
| description | Thesis (PhD (Veterinary Epidemiology))--University of Pretoria, 2020. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/75937 |
| institution | University of Pretoria (South Africa) |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:40:17.184Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publishDateRange | 2020 |
| publishDateSort | 2020 |
| publisher | University of Pretoria |
| publisherStr | University of Pretoria |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| spelling | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/75937 Modelling the risks of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks and assessing the effectiveness of vaccination in South Africa Fosgate, Geoffrey Theodore sirdar44@hotmail.com Gummow, Bruce Blignaut, Belinda Sirdar, Mohamed Mahmoud UCTD Foot-and-mouth disease FMD outbreak modelling Vaccination effectiveness Bayesian kriging Wildlife–livestock interface Disease control strategies Epidemiological modelling Livestock production Vaccine matching Veterinary science theses SDG-02 Veterinary science theses SDG-03 Veterinary science theses SDG-08 Veterinary science theses SDG-09 Veterinary science theses SDG-13 Veterinary science theses SDG-15 Thesis (PhD (Veterinary Epidemiology))--University of Pretoria, 2020. Transboundary animal diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) have negative socio-economic consequences that include impacts on food security. Vaccination reduces the number of susceptible animals and is one of the most important approaches for FMD control. In South Africa, FMD outbreaks in communal areas cause major livestock and human livelihood concerns; they raise apprehensions about the effectiveness of FMD control measures within the FMD protection areas. This study aimed to inform South Africa’s FMD control policy by identifying the spatial and temporal distributions of FMD outbreaks, modelling the risks of FMDV outbreaks and assessing the effectiveness of vaccination in South Africa. The first study used Cuzick-Edwards tests and Kulldorff scan statistics to detect spatial autocorrelation and spatial-temporal clusters of FMD outbreaks (2005 - 2016). The second study developed a new vaccine matching technique and assessed the vaccine-match of 41 FMD field viruses isolated from southern Africa (1991 - 2015). The third study developed a risk model integrating available risk factor information to identify high-risk areas for FMD outbreak occurrence and subsequent spread. Four high-risk clusters for FMD outbreaks were identified, and the spatial distribution was consistent with contact between domestic animals and wildlife as the main contributor to FMD occurrence. Cattle numbers, cattle movement, location (province), vaccination status and vaccine matching were also important for FMD outbreak occurrences and spread. However, cattle weekly inspections were strongly related to FMD occurrence, which implies effective surveillance and inspection increased the likelihood of FMD detection. The new vaccine matching method provided a feasible and reliable approach that will contribute to the control of FMD in southern Africa. Continued research is necessary to maximize the cost-effectiveness of FMD control in southern Africa. South African National Research Foundation (Grant Numbers 90578 and 76734) & University of Pretoria es2025 Production Animal Studies PhD (Veterinary Epidemiology) Unrestricted SDG-02: Zero hunger SDG-03: Good health and well-being SDG-08: Decent work and economic growth SDG-09: Industry, innovation and infrastructure SDG-13: Climate action SDG-15: Life on land 2020-08-27T11:32:38Z 2020-08-27T11:32:38Z 2020-09-30 2020-08 Thesis Sirdar, MM 2020, Modelling the risks of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks and assessing the effectiveness of vaccination in South Africa, PhD thesis, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa. S2020 http://hdl.handle.net/2263/75937 en © 2019 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. application/pdf University of Pretoria |
| spellingShingle | UCTD Foot-and-mouth disease FMD outbreak modelling Vaccination effectiveness Bayesian kriging Wildlife–livestock interface Disease control strategies Epidemiological modelling Livestock production Vaccine matching Veterinary science theses SDG-02 Veterinary science theses SDG-03 Veterinary science theses SDG-08 Veterinary science theses SDG-09 Veterinary science theses SDG-13 Veterinary science theses SDG-15 Modelling the risks of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks and assessing the effectiveness of vaccination in South Africa |
| title | Modelling the risks of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks and assessing the effectiveness of vaccination in South Africa |
| title_full | Modelling the risks of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks and assessing the effectiveness of vaccination in South Africa |
| title_fullStr | Modelling the risks of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks and assessing the effectiveness of vaccination in South Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the risks of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks and assessing the effectiveness of vaccination in South Africa |
| title_short | Modelling the risks of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks and assessing the effectiveness of vaccination in South Africa |
| title_sort | modelling the risks of foot and mouth disease outbreaks and assessing the effectiveness of vaccination in south africa |
| topic | UCTD Foot-and-mouth disease FMD outbreak modelling Vaccination effectiveness Bayesian kriging Wildlife–livestock interface Disease control strategies Epidemiological modelling Livestock production Vaccine matching Veterinary science theses SDG-02 Veterinary science theses SDG-03 Veterinary science theses SDG-08 Veterinary science theses SDG-09 Veterinary science theses SDG-13 Veterinary science theses SDG-15 |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/2263/75937 |