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The key determinants of food inflation in the kingdom of Eswatini
Dissertation (MSc Agric (Agricultural Economics))--University of Pretoria, 2019
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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University of Pretoria
2021
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| _version_ | 1867613467560640512 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author2 | Louw, Marlene |
| author_browse | Louw, Marlene |
| author_facet | Louw, Marlene |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | © 2019 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. |
| description | Dissertation (MSc Agric (Agricultural Economics))--University of Pretoria, 2019 |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/79022 |
| institution | University of Pretoria (South Africa) |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:36:36.982Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publishDateRange | 2021 |
| publishDateSort | 2021 |
| publisher | University of Pretoria |
| publisherStr | University of Pretoria |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| spelling | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/79022 The key determinants of food inflation in the kingdom of Eswatini Louw, Marlene u19285478@tuks.co.za Mndzebele, Mancoba K UCTD Cointegration Error correction Food inflation Dissertation (MSc Agric (Agricultural Economics))--University of Pretoria, 2019 It is important to track food inflation from a development perspective as it is indicative of food access for the poor. Discussions on food inflation in Eswatini have gained traction due to its effects on welfare erosion of lower income groups. Eswatini is faced with a problem of periods with high food inflation which hampers food access and affordability for low income groups. Patterns of high food inflation in Eswatini persists yet the drivers of food inflation remain unknown. A thorough understanding of these drivers is the first step towards sound policy intervention related to inflation management. This study drew on literature on food inflation in other countries to identify energy and agricultural prices and inflation dynamics of key importing partners as potential drivers of food inflation. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was implemented to determine the key determinants of food inflation in the Kingdom of Eswatini using monthly time series data from January 2009 to January 2020. The Gregory-Hansen technique was used to test for structural breaks in the series as numerous changes related to climate and political circumstances could have impacted relationships over the long run. The Gregory-Hansen technique facilitated the identification of this which ultimately allowed for more accurate estimation. The study found that all variables considered in the study had a positive and significant effect on Eswatini’s food inflation at 5% confidence level and further unveiled that a 10% change in South African food inflation is associated with a 16.1% increase in Eswatini’s food inflation while a 10% change in global oil prices increases Eswatini’s food inflation by 56.7%. The results also revealed that a 10% change in global agricultural prices is associated with a 17.7% increase in Eswatini’s food inflation. The error correction model was used to determine the magnitude and speed of adjustment of Eswatini’s food inflation after a shock to the long-run equilibrium. The results from the error correction show that the speed of adjustment for Eswatini’s food inflation shock in the long run relationship is almost instantaneous at 96.6% per month. This suggests that food inflation in Eswatini reflects changes in global oil prices, agricultural prices and inflationary changes in South Africa fully and immediately. The Toda Yamamoto Granger causality test revealed that South African food prices granger causes food prices in Eswatini at 5% confidence interval. Based on these findings, policy interventions focusing on curbing food inflation would include ensuring the efficiency of food production and distribution in Eswatini so that exogenous shocks can be buffered by high level of local production and availability. AERC/CMAAE Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development MSc Unrestricted 2021-03-23T07:13:03Z 2021-03-23T07:13:03Z 2021-03-19 2021 Dissertation Mndzebele, MK 2021, The key determinants of food inflation in the kingdom of Eswatini, MSc dissertation, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, viewed 20210319 S2021 http://hdl.handle.net/2263/79022 en © 2019 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. application/pdf University of Pretoria |
| spellingShingle | UCTD Cointegration Error correction Food inflation The key determinants of food inflation in the kingdom of Eswatini |
| title | The key determinants of food inflation in the kingdom of Eswatini |
| title_full | The key determinants of food inflation in the kingdom of Eswatini |
| title_fullStr | The key determinants of food inflation in the kingdom of Eswatini |
| title_full_unstemmed | The key determinants of food inflation in the kingdom of Eswatini |
| title_short | The key determinants of food inflation in the kingdom of Eswatini |
| title_sort | key determinants of food inflation in the kingdom of eswatini |
| topic | UCTD Cointegration Error correction Food inflation |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/2263/79022 |