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Dynamic system evaluation of fluctuating processor raw material on value chain financial sustainability
Dissertation (MEng (Industrial Engineering))--University of Pretoria, 2023.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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University of Pretoria
2024
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| _version_ | 1867613461905670144 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author2 | Bean, Wilna |
| author_browse | Bean, Wilna |
| author_facet | Bean, Wilna |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | © 2023 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. |
| description | Dissertation (MEng (Industrial Engineering))--University of Pretoria, 2023. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/93924 |
| institution | University of Pretoria (South Africa) |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:36:31.522Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | University of Pretoria |
| publisherStr | University of Pretoria |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UPSpace — University of Pretoria Institutional Repository |
| spelling | oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/93924 Dynamic system evaluation of fluctuating processor raw material on value chain financial sustainability Bean, Wilna u16056036@tuks.co.za Ottermann, Helga UCTD System dynamics Value chain analysis Financial sustainability Optimisation Tanzania Sunflower Industry Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Engineering, built environment and information technology theses SDG-02 SDG-02: Zero hunger Engineering, built environment and information technology theses SDG-08 SDG-08: Decent work and economic growth Dissertation (MEng (Industrial Engineering))--University of Pretoria, 2023. As the global population grows, food self-sufficiency in developing countries becomes increasingly important and difficult (FAO, 2023). Due to variables like weather, agricultural production remains volatile, providing processors with an inconsistent supply of raw materials, making it difficult to operate at a reliable and sustainable utilisation and supply food consistently and competitively in the global market. This project aimed to evaluate the impact of a change in available raw material volume at the processing node on the total value chain’s financial sustainability. The project’s goal included illustrating and measuring the effect of seed availability, as well as determining the ideal amount of seed to be processed for maximum value chain financial sustainability. This was done with a system dynamic model that represented the Tanzanian sunflower value chain, including producers, traders and processors and measured financial sustainability with the net income indicator. Steps to develop the system dynamic model included the problem and background articulation, dynamic hypothesis with the causal loop diagram development, the mathematical formulation in AnyLogic, model verification and validation, and scenario analysis. The developed model represented the Tanzanian sunflower value chain accurately and assisted in gaining insight into managing different raw material availability disruptions (increasing and decreasing seed availability by 10% to 50%), which quantified the impact on each node’s financial sustainability with the net income indicator. This illustrated the efficiency gains due to economies of scale and supply and demand price trade-offs. Furthermore, a significant scientific contribution was to optimise the entire value chain to maximise the total value chain net income by determining the ideal amount of seed to be processed. The results illustrated how the model could contribute to quantifying a variety of different scenarios to analyse the impact of different interventions on the entire value chain system. The model quantified the financial sustainability of the value chain, however, as with most research, the model can be further improved to refine the results and incorporate different performance indicators (like environmental and governance) which may widen the reach of the results. Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy Industrial and Systems Engineering MEng (Industrial Engineering) Unrestricted Faculty of Engineering, Built Environment and Information Technology 2024-01-11T08:58:33Z 2024-01-11T08:58:33Z 2024 2023 Dissertation * A2024 http://hdl.handle.net/2263/93924 10.25403/UPresearchdata.24916128 en © 2023 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. application/pdf University of Pretoria |
| spellingShingle | UCTD System dynamics Value chain analysis Financial sustainability Optimisation Tanzania Sunflower Industry Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Engineering, built environment and information technology theses SDG-02 SDG-02: Zero hunger Engineering, built environment and information technology theses SDG-08 SDG-08: Decent work and economic growth Dynamic system evaluation of fluctuating processor raw material on value chain financial sustainability |
| title | Dynamic system evaluation of fluctuating processor raw material on value chain financial sustainability |
| title_full | Dynamic system evaluation of fluctuating processor raw material on value chain financial sustainability |
| title_fullStr | Dynamic system evaluation of fluctuating processor raw material on value chain financial sustainability |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dynamic system evaluation of fluctuating processor raw material on value chain financial sustainability |
| title_short | Dynamic system evaluation of fluctuating processor raw material on value chain financial sustainability |
| title_sort | dynamic system evaluation of fluctuating processor raw material on value chain financial sustainability |
| topic | UCTD System dynamics Value chain analysis Financial sustainability Optimisation Tanzania Sunflower Industry Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Engineering, built environment and information technology theses SDG-02 SDG-02: Zero hunger Engineering, built environment and information technology theses SDG-08 SDG-08: Decent work and economic growth |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/2263/93924 |