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A simulation model of an Ebola epidemic to investigate the effectiveness of intervention strategies
Thesis (MCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2020.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | en_ZA |
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Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University
2020
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| _version_ | 1867613792116932608 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Van Heerden, Kyle |
| author2 | Potgieter, Linke |
| author_browse | Potgieter, Linke Van Heerden, Kyle |
| author_facet | Potgieter, Linke Van Heerden, Kyle |
| author_sort | Van Heerden, Kyle |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | Stellenbosch University |
| description | Thesis (MCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2020. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/108200 |
| institution | Stellenbosch University (South Africa) |
| language | en_ZA |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:41:46.341Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publishDateRange | 2020 |
| publishDateSort | 2020 |
| publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| publisherStr | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| spelling | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/108200 A simulation model of an Ebola epidemic to investigate the effectiveness of intervention strategies Van Heerden, Kyle Potgieter, Linke Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Logistics. Logistics. Ebola virus disease -- Strategic aspects Hazard mitigation -- Strategic aspects Disaster medicine -- Strategic planning -- Sierra Leone Disaster medicine -- Sierra Leone -- Simulation methods UCTD Thesis (MCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2020. ENGLISH ABSTRACT : A significant increase in the number of lives lost and material damages were seen in the past decade caused by natural and man-made disasters. The complex and dynamic environment of a disaster response effort demands agility and adaptability which could only be achieved with adequate preparation and strategic planning. In this project, simulation modelling is applied to the Ebola epidemic disaster of late 2014 in Sierra Leone to study the e ectiveness of intervention strategies. Given financial and logistical constraints the most effective intervention strategy or combination of strategies should be implemented to minimise the number of infected individuals at a minimum cost. The impact of four intervention strategies used during the epidemic namely, contact tracing, quarantine, safe burials, and vaccination, are evaluated. A metapopulation modelling approach is followed whereby a group of spatially separated populations interact through migrating individuals. A compartmental model consisting of a set of difference equations is used to model the spread of Ebola within each local population. A proportion of individuals in each local population move to other local populations. This spatial representation is used to gain better insight on how spatial interaction of individuals in neighbouring regions in a country affect the efficiency of intervention strategies. With the ability to test various intervention strategies, an effective combination of intervention strategies may be found that has the greatest impact on the spread of the disease. The results may impact the design and implementation of future intervention strategies. AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING : 'n Beduidende toename in die aantal lewens wat verlore gegaan, asook en materiele skade as gevolg van beide natuur- en mensgemaakte rampe is gedurende die afgelope dekade waargeneem. Die implementering van 'n intervensiestrategie in die ingewikkelde en dinamiese omgewing van 'n ramp vereis 'n hoe aanpasbaarheidsvermoe wat slegs bereik kan word met voldoende voorbereiding en strategiese beplanning. In hierdie projek word 'n simulasiemodel geformuleer om die doeltre endheid van intervensiestrategiee op die Ebola epidemie van laat 2014 in Sierra Leone te bestudeer. Gegewe finansiele en logistieke beperkings moet die effektiefste intervensiestrategie of kombinasie van strategiee geimplementeer word om die aantal besmette individue te minimeer teen die laagste moontlike koste. Die impak van vier intervensiestrategiee wat tydens die epidemie gebruik was, naamlik kontakopsporing, kwarantyn, veilige begrafnismetodes en inenting, word ondersoek. 'n Metapopulasie modelleringsbenadering word gevolg waarin 'n groep aparte populasies met mekaar in wisselwerking is. 'n Kompartementele model wat beskryf word deur 'n stel verskilvergelykings word gebruik om die verspreiding van Ebola binne elke plaaslike populasie te modelleer. 'n Deel van die individue in elke plaaslike bevolking migreer na ander plaaslike bevolkingsgroepe. Hierdie ruimtelike voorstelling word gebruik om 'n beter insig te kry oor hoe ruimtelike interaksie van individue in naburige streke in 'n land die effektiwiteit van intervensiestrategiee beinvloed. Met die vermoe om verskillende intervensiestrategiee te toets, kan 'n effektiewe kombinasie van intervensiestrategiee gevind word wat die grootste invloed op die verspreiding van die siekte het. Die resultate kan die ontwerp en implementering van toekomstige intervensiestrategiee beinvloed. Masters 2020-02-26T09:04:55Z 2020-04-28T12:24:59Z 2020-02-26T09:04:55Z 2020-04-28T12:24:59Z 2020-03 Thesis http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/108200 en_ZA Stellenbosch University xvi, 94 pages ; illustrations application/pdf Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| spellingShingle | Ebola virus disease -- Strategic aspects Hazard mitigation -- Strategic aspects Disaster medicine -- Strategic planning -- Sierra Leone Disaster medicine -- Sierra Leone -- Simulation methods UCTD Van Heerden, Kyle A simulation model of an Ebola epidemic to investigate the effectiveness of intervention strategies |
| title | A simulation model of an Ebola epidemic to investigate the effectiveness of intervention strategies |
| title_full | A simulation model of an Ebola epidemic to investigate the effectiveness of intervention strategies |
| title_fullStr | A simulation model of an Ebola epidemic to investigate the effectiveness of intervention strategies |
| title_full_unstemmed | A simulation model of an Ebola epidemic to investigate the effectiveness of intervention strategies |
| title_short | A simulation model of an Ebola epidemic to investigate the effectiveness of intervention strategies |
| title_sort | simulation model of an ebola epidemic to investigate the effectiveness of intervention strategies |
| topic | Ebola virus disease -- Strategic aspects Hazard mitigation -- Strategic aspects Disaster medicine -- Strategic planning -- Sierra Leone Disaster medicine -- Sierra Leone -- Simulation methods UCTD |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/108200 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT vanheerdenkyle asimulationmodelofanebolaepidemictoinvestigatetheeffectivenessofinterventionstrategies AT vanheerdenkyle simulationmodelofanebolaepidemictoinvestigatetheeffectivenessofinterventionstrategies |