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A forecasting framework for demand forecasting of utility-scale electricity networks in a rapidly evolving power system environment
Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2021.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | en_ZA |
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Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University
2021
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| _version_ | 1867613925489508352 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Breedt, Jana |
| author2 | Louw, Louis |
| author_browse | Breedt, Jana Louw, Louis |
| author_facet | Louw, Louis Breedt, Jana |
| author_sort | Breedt, Jana |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | Stellenbosch University |
| description | Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2021. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/123812 |
| institution | Stellenbosch University (South Africa) |
| language | en_ZA |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:43:53.285Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publishDateRange | 2021 |
| publishDateSort | 2021 |
| publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| publisherStr | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| spelling | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/123812 A forecasting framework for demand forecasting of utility-scale electricity networks in a rapidly evolving power system environment Breedt, Jana Louw, Louis De Kock, Imke Scenario scoping UCTD Electric power consumption -- Forecasting Renewable energy sources Power resources Business -- Forecasting Electricity -- Supply and demand Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2021. ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Planning for sufficient energy resources in a country is of paramount importance to ensure the sustainable development of the economy and the prosperity of its citizens. The landscape of energy utilisation is currently experiencing rapid evolution. Progression in technology associated with electricity use and the generation thereof introduces new opportunities, increasing system complexity and uncertainty. The evolution is driven by the need to accommodate and integrate renewable energy resources and a migration towards a sustainable carbon-free footprint. Many utilities have launched grid modernisation efforts to accommodate these changes and meet evolving customer needs (Von Dollen and Rogers, 2020). These changes in the energy industry pose significant challenges to the traditional methodologies used to forecast the peak demand for electricity. A utility and its environment operate interdependently. Therefore, several factors beyond natural demand drivers influence the equilibrium of the electricity demand and supply system. An overview of available literature assisted in evaluating the changes in the energy sector and the availability of existing frameworks to assist in forecasting strategic electricity demand with renewable energy sources incorporated. Several frameworks for energy forecasting were found; however, most of the frameworks addressed short term forecasting and did not include renewable generation, the effect of new technology and consumer behaviour will have on electricity demand. Furthermore, most models are quantitatively driven, and a lack of qualitative assumptions for the long-term forecasting horizons was noted (Lindberg et al., 2019). Therefore, a distinct need was presented to identify factors and interlinking concepts to forecast a utility’s demand and combine these analytically within a forecasting framework. The framework aims to assist an electricity demand forecaster in constructing strategic forecast scenarios for network capacity, including the complexities of renewable technology. The research proposes the Integrated Strategic Electricity Demand (ISED) forecasting framework to provide a holistic view of the energy sector and changes from a decarbonised society hosting increased renewable electricity sources. The framework was designed with conceptual framework methodologies, enterprise engineering concepts and -frameworks formats. The South African national utility, Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd (Eskom), was identified as a case study and assisted in an inductive approach to identifying the requirements for a conceptual framework to be applied in long-term strategic forecasting for electricity utilities qualitative data analysis and observations. The case study was also used to validate the framework for applicability. The key finding from the research pertained to the importance of an integrated framework to provide a holistic approach towards implementing a forecast in line with business strategy and goals. The success of a forecast depends highly on an integrated system, and the use of the conceptual framework exemplified the importance of collaboration and strategic planning as a holistic business approach. The research gap was addressed by providing a combined set of factors to guide an electricity demand forecaster. It further contributes to the forecasting environment by providing a base for further research in modelling the identified factors into integrated forecasting models of the future. AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Beplanning vir voldoende energiebronne in 'n land is van kardinale belang om die volhoubare ontwikkeling van die ekonomie en die welvaart van sy burgers inwoners te verseker. Die landskap van energieverbruik beleef tans 'n evolusie. Tegnologiese vooruitgang in elektrisiteits gebruik en die opwekking daarvan, bied nuwe geleenthede, met 'n groter stelselkompleksiteit en ook onsekerheid. Evolusie word aangedryf deur die behoefte om hernubare energiebronne te akkommodeer en te integreer in 'n voorkeur na 'n volhoubare koolstofvrye voetspoor. Verskeie nutsdienste het pogings aangewend om netwerke te moderniseer om aan hierdie veranderinge te voldoen, en terselfde tyd steeds aan die behoeftes van die verbruikers te voldoen (Von Dollen en Rogers, 2020). Hierdie veranderinge in die energiebedryf bied groot uitdagings vir die tradisionele metodes om die maksimum elektristeit aanvraag te voorspel. 'n Elektrisiteits nutsdiens en sy omgewing werk onderling afhanklik. Daarom beïnvloed verskeie faktore, die ewewig van die elektristeitstelsel se vraag-en-aanbod vereiste, en is dit noodsaaklik om die faktore te identifiseer. 'n Oorsig van beskikbare literatuur het gehelp om die veranderinge in die energiesektor te evalueer en ook die beskikbaarheid van bestaande strategise vooruitskattings raamwerke met hernubare energiebronne in ag geneem. Verskeie raamwerke vir energie vooruitskatting is gevind; die meeste raamwerke het egter op korttermyn voorsuitskatting gefokus en het nie hernubare opwekking, die effek van nuwe tegnologie en verbruikersgedrag ingesluit nie. Verder word die meeste modelle kwantitatief gedryf, en 'n gebrek aan kwalitatiewe aannames vir die langtermyn vooruitskatting is opgemerk (Lindberg et al., 2019). Daarom is 'n behoefte geidentifiseer om faktore en onderling gekoppelde konsepte te identifiseer vir die aanvraag vooruitskatting modelering. Die raamwerk het ten doel om 'n aanvraag vooruitskatter van elektrisiteit te help met die opstel van strategiese voorspelling vir die netwerk kapasiteit, met die kompleksiteit van hernubare tegnologie in gesluit. Die navorsing stel die voorsuitskatting van die geïntegreerde strategiese vraag na elektrisiteit (ISED forecasting framework) voor om 'n holistiese beeld van die energiesektor te gee met die focus op faktore wat by die vooruiskatting ingelsuit moet word met hernubare rolspelers in aggeneem. Die Suid-Afrikaanse nasionale energie verskaffer, Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd (Eskom), is geïdentifiseer as 'n gevallestudie en het gehelp met 'n induktiewe benadering om die vereistes vir 'n konseptuele raamwerk te identifiseer. Komponente en faktore is geidentifiseer vir gebruik in strategiese vooruitskattings vir elektriese nutsdienste met die kompleksiteit van hernubare energie in ag neem. Ter afsluiting, is die belangrikheid van ‘n holistiese benadering. Die sukses van 'n vooruitskatting hang sterk af van 'n geïntegreerde stelsel, en die gebruik van die konseptuele raamwerk toon die belangrikheid van samewerking en strategiese beplanning as 'n holistiese besigheidsbenadering. Die navorsingsgaping is aangespreek deur 'n gekombineerde stel faktore te verskaf wat 'n vooruitskatter kan bystaan in die formulering van die electrisiteids aanvraag vooruitskatting. Dit dra verder by tot die studie area van vooruitskatting deur 'n basis te bied vir verdere navorsing oor die modellering van die geïdentifiseerde faktore in geïntegreerde voorspellingsmodelle van die toekoms. Masters 2021-11-22T10:09:00Z 2021-12-22T14:22:49Z 2021-11-22T10:09:00Z 2021-12-22T14:22:49Z 2021-12 Thesis http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/123812 en_ZA Stellenbosch University 196 pages application/pdf Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| spellingShingle | Scenario scoping UCTD Electric power consumption -- Forecasting Renewable energy sources Power resources Business -- Forecasting Electricity -- Supply and demand Breedt, Jana A forecasting framework for demand forecasting of utility-scale electricity networks in a rapidly evolving power system environment |
| title | A forecasting framework for demand forecasting of utility-scale electricity networks in a rapidly evolving power system environment |
| title_full | A forecasting framework for demand forecasting of utility-scale electricity networks in a rapidly evolving power system environment |
| title_fullStr | A forecasting framework for demand forecasting of utility-scale electricity networks in a rapidly evolving power system environment |
| title_full_unstemmed | A forecasting framework for demand forecasting of utility-scale electricity networks in a rapidly evolving power system environment |
| title_short | A forecasting framework for demand forecasting of utility-scale electricity networks in a rapidly evolving power system environment |
| title_sort | forecasting framework for demand forecasting of utility scale electricity networks in a rapidly evolving power system environment |
| topic | Scenario scoping UCTD Electric power consumption -- Forecasting Renewable energy sources Power resources Business -- Forecasting Electricity -- Supply and demand |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/123812 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT breedtjana aforecastingframeworkfordemandforecastingofutilityscaleelectricitynetworksinarapidlyevolvingpowersystemenvironment AT breedtjana forecastingframeworkfordemandforecastingofutilityscaleelectricitynetworksinarapidlyevolvingpowersystemenvironment |