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A small-scale component model analysis of low-income household housing demand in Cape Town, South Africa
Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2022.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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2022
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| _version_ | 1867613902658863104 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Gutting, Robin |
| author2 | Geyer, Herman |
| author_browse | Geyer, Herman Gutting, Robin |
| author_facet | Geyer, Herman Gutting, Robin |
| author_sort | Gutting, Robin |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | Stellenbosch University |
| description | Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2022.
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| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/125051 |
| institution | Stellenbosch University (South Africa) |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:43:31.605Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publishDateRange | 2022 |
| publishDateSort | 2022 |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| spelling | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/125051 A small-scale component model analysis of low-income household housing demand in Cape Town, South Africa Gutting, Robin Geyer, Herman Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences. Dept. of Geography and Environmental Studies. Low-income housing -- Cape Town -- South Africa Housing -- Cape Town -- South Africa Households -- Cape Town -- South Africa Housing policy -- Cape Town -- South Africa UCTD Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2022. ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The South African housing programmes, Breaking New Ground (BNG) and Community Residential Units (CRU), are unable to provide sufficient subsidised housing for all low-income households. One reason for this shortfall in housing supply is that there are no small-scale assessments of affordable housing demand in terms of diverse income categories and housing submarkets. Thus, the study conceptualises and tests the use of an adapted component model to determine the BNG and CRU housing demand amongst low-income households at a lower spatial resolution in Cape Town Metropolitan Municipality, South Africa. The model develops three components: population, household type and housing submarkets. To accurately project the number of households based on population characteristics, the household headship method is applied. Households are then differentiated according to the variable household income into low-income households and higher-income households with the help of a funding-based threshold value, which is aligned to actual income brackets used by BNG and CRU. The housing preferences are modelled with the help of empirically derived quotas, which are able to differentiate the tenure status of the low-income households into home-ownership and renting to align with the housing demand with the two funding programmes. Actual housing demand in both housing submarkets is represented by the projected increase in households and the current housing backlog. This amounts to an inflation adjusted housing demand of 617,000 housing units for Cape Town between 2020 and 2030 and includes 581,000 BNG housing units and 36,000 new rental CRU apartments. One third of the future housing demand can be related to the housing backlog. Therefore, using the example of Cape Town, it can be shown that it is possible to project the affordable housing demand of low-income households in a developing country with an adapted component approach model. The central methodological feature is the connection of the component model to South Africa’s affordable housing subsidy programmes, because these dominate the housing market for low-income households. AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Suid-Afrikaanse behuisingsprogram, Breaking New Ground (BNG) en Gemeenskaps Behuisingseenhede (CRU), is nie in staat om voldoende gesubsidieerde behuising vir alle lae-inkomstehuishoudings te voorsien nie. Een rede vir hierdie tekort in behuisingsaanbod is dat daar geen kleinskaalse evaluerings van bekostigbare behuisingsvraag, in terme van diverse inkomstekategorieë en behuisingssubmarkte, is nie. Die navorsing konseptualiseer en toets dus die gebruik van `n aangepaste komponentmodel om die BNG- en CRU-behuisingsaanvraag onder lae-inkomstehuishoudings teen `n laer ruimtelike resolusie in Kaapstad Metropoltaanse Munisipaliteit, Suid-Afrika, te bepaal. Die model ontwikkel drie komponente: bevolking, huishoudelike tipe en behuising submarkte. Om die aantal huishoudings op grond van bevolkingseienskappe akkuraat te projekteer, word die huishoudelike hoofskap-methode toegepas. Huishoudings word dan volgens die veranderlike huishoudelike inkomste gedifferensieer in lae-inkomstehuishoudings en hoër-inkomste huishoudings met behulpvan `n befondsingsgebaseerde drempelwaarde, wat belyn is met werklike inkomstegroepe wat deur BNG en CRU gebruik word. Die behuisingsvoorkeure word gemodelleer met behulp van empiries-afgeleide kwotas, wat in staat is om die verblyfregstatus van die lae-inkomstehuishoudings te differensieer in huiseienaarskap en huur om met die behuisingsaanvraag tot die twee befondsingsprogramme toe te pas. Werklike behuisingsvraag in beide behuisingsmarkte word verteenwoordig deur die geprojekteerde toename in huishoudings en die huldige behuisingsagterstand. Dit kom neer op `n inflasie-aangepaste behuisingsvraag van 617 000 wooneenhede vir Kaapstad tussen 2020 en 2030 en sluit 581 000 BNG-behuisingseenhede en 36 000 nuwe huur-CRU-woonstelle in. Een derde van die toekomstige behuisingsvraag kan met die behuisingsagterstand verbind word. Daarvolgens, deur die gebruik van die voorbeeld van Kaapstad, kan daar dus aangetoon word dat dit moontlik is om die bekostigbare behuisingsvraag van lae-inkomstehuishoudings in `n ontwikkelnde land met `n aangepaste komponentbenaderingsmodel te projekteer. Die sentrale metodologiese kenmerk is die koppeling van die komponentmodel aan Suid-Afrika se bekostigbare behuisingsubsidieprogramme, omdat hierdie die huismark vir lae-inkomstehuishoudings oorheers. Masters 2022-02-10T15:35:50Z 2022-04-29T12:51:55Z 2022-02-10T15:35:50Z 2022-02-10 Thesis http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/125051 en Stellenbosch University iv, 95 pages : illustrations application/pdf |
| spellingShingle | Low-income housing -- Cape Town -- South Africa Housing -- Cape Town -- South Africa Households -- Cape Town -- South Africa Housing policy -- Cape Town -- South Africa UCTD Gutting, Robin A small-scale component model analysis of low-income household housing demand in Cape Town, South Africa |
| title | A small-scale component model analysis of low-income household housing demand in Cape Town, South Africa |
| title_full | A small-scale component model analysis of low-income household housing demand in Cape Town, South Africa |
| title_fullStr | A small-scale component model analysis of low-income household housing demand in Cape Town, South Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | A small-scale component model analysis of low-income household housing demand in Cape Town, South Africa |
| title_short | A small-scale component model analysis of low-income household housing demand in Cape Town, South Africa |
| title_sort | small scale component model analysis of low income household housing demand in cape town south africa |
| topic | Low-income housing -- Cape Town -- South Africa Housing -- Cape Town -- South Africa Households -- Cape Town -- South Africa Housing policy -- Cape Town -- South Africa UCTD |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/125051 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT guttingrobin asmallscalecomponentmodelanalysisoflowincomehouseholdhousingdemandincapetownsouthafrica AT guttingrobin smallscalecomponentmodelanalysisoflowincomehouseholdhousingdemandincapetownsouthafrica |