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A prediction risk score for HIV among adolescent girls and young women in South Africa : identifying those in need of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis
Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2022.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | en_ZA |
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Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University
2022
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| _version_ | 1867613969337810944 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Moyo, Reuben Christopher |
| author2 | Nyasulu, Peter Suwilakwenda |
| author_browse | Moyo, Reuben Christopher Nyasulu, Peter Suwilakwenda |
| author_facet | Nyasulu, Peter Suwilakwenda Moyo, Reuben Christopher |
| author_sort | Moyo, Reuben Christopher |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | Stellenbosch University |
| description | Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2022. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/126368 |
| institution | Stellenbosch University (South Africa) |
| language | en_ZA |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:44:35.400Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publishDateRange | 2022 |
| publishDateSort | 2022 |
| publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| publisherStr | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| spelling | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/126368 A prediction risk score for HIV among adolescent girls and young women in South Africa : identifying those in need of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis Moyo, Reuben Christopher Nyasulu, Peter Suwilakwenda Manda, Samuel Govindasamy, Darshini Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences. Dept. of Global Health. Epidemiology and Biostatistics. HIV infections -- Youth -- South Africa HIV-positive women -- South Africa Pre-exposure prophylaxis -- South Africa Risk assessment -- South Africa HIV-positive women -- Services for -- South Africa Teenage girls -- Services for -- South Africa AIDS (Disease) in pregnancy -- Prevention -- South Africa UCTD Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2022. ENGLISH SUMMARY: Background: In sub-Saharan Africa, adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) have the highest risk of acquiring HIV. Risk factors for HIV in AGYM are well studied and known in the literature. However, there is need to combine these factors into a single summary measure that could be used in the identification of the AGYW who are more likely to acquire HIV and who may be linked to HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PreP) which has shown to be effective in the prevention of new HIV infections among high-risk populations. This study aimed at developing and validating an HIV risk prediction tool for AGYW. Methods: We analyzed existing HIV-related data on 4,399 AGYW from South Africa. We used multivariable binary logistic regression to model coefficients for use in deriving risk scores. The HIV risk scores were computed from summing predictor coefficients of the resulting logistic regression model. The performance of the final model at discriminating between HIV infected and non-HIV infected AGYM was assessed using area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC) and measures of discriminative abilities such as predictive values, sensitivity, and specificity. The optimal cut-point of the risk score was determined using Youden index. Results: The weighted HIV prevalence among AGYW was 12.4% (11.7 – 14.0). Our risk scores ranged from -1.26 to 3.80 with a mean score of 1.38 and a standard deviation of 0.86. The optimal cut-point of the risk scores was 1.80 with sensitivity of 62% and specificity of 70%. The prediction model’s sensitivity was 15.19% and specificity of 98.92%. The model’s positive predictive value was 67.42% while the negative predictive value was 88.79%. Our model performed well at predicting HIV positivity with training AUC of 0.770 and a testing AUC of 0.751. Conclusion: Our risk score tool has shown good discrimination and calibration at predicting undiagnosed HIV in AGYW. This tool could provide a simple and low-cost strategy for screening AGYW in primary health care clinics or community settings. This risk assessment tool may also help service providers identify and link high-risk AGYW to HIV PreP services. AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Geen opsomming beskikbaar. Masters 2022-11-21T10:12:37Z 2023-01-23T06:54:24Z 2023-05-21T03:00:18Z 2022-12 Thesis http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/126368 en_ZA Stellenbosch University xii, 53 pages ; includes annexures application/pdf Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| spellingShingle | HIV infections -- Youth -- South Africa HIV-positive women -- South Africa Pre-exposure prophylaxis -- South Africa Risk assessment -- South Africa HIV-positive women -- Services for -- South Africa Teenage girls -- Services for -- South Africa AIDS (Disease) in pregnancy -- Prevention -- South Africa UCTD Moyo, Reuben Christopher A prediction risk score for HIV among adolescent girls and young women in South Africa : identifying those in need of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis |
| title | A prediction risk score for HIV among adolescent girls and young women in South Africa : identifying those in need of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis |
| title_full | A prediction risk score for HIV among adolescent girls and young women in South Africa : identifying those in need of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis |
| title_fullStr | A prediction risk score for HIV among adolescent girls and young women in South Africa : identifying those in need of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis |
| title_full_unstemmed | A prediction risk score for HIV among adolescent girls and young women in South Africa : identifying those in need of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis |
| title_short | A prediction risk score for HIV among adolescent girls and young women in South Africa : identifying those in need of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis |
| title_sort | prediction risk score for hiv among adolescent girls and young women in south africa identifying those in need of hiv pre exposure prophylaxis |
| topic | HIV infections -- Youth -- South Africa HIV-positive women -- South Africa Pre-exposure prophylaxis -- South Africa Risk assessment -- South Africa HIV-positive women -- Services for -- South Africa Teenage girls -- Services for -- South Africa AIDS (Disease) in pregnancy -- Prevention -- South Africa UCTD |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/126368 |
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