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“The ANC will rule until Jesus comes”: The determinants of loyalty, switching and exiting for the African National Congress in the 2019 elections
Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2023.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | en_ZA |
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Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University
2023
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| _version_ | 1867614054513639424 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Jacobs, Edward Keenan |
| author2 | Schulz-Herzenberg, Collette |
| author_browse | Jacobs, Edward Keenan Schulz-Herzenberg, Collette |
| author_facet | Schulz-Herzenberg, Collette Jacobs, Edward Keenan |
| author_sort | Jacobs, Edward Keenan |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | Stellenbosch University |
| description | Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2023. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/126979 |
| institution | Stellenbosch University (South Africa) |
| language | en_ZA |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:45:56.159Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| publisherStr | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| spelling | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/126979 “The ANC will rule until Jesus comes”: The determinants of loyalty, switching and exiting for the African National Congress in the 2019 elections Jacobs, Edward Keenan Schulz-Herzenberg, Collette Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences. Dept. of Journalism. African National Congress Elections -- South Africa Voting -- South Africa Politial science South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994- Political parties -- South Africa Secret ballot Voter turnout Democracy -- South Africa Political participation South Africa -- History -- 21st century Loyalty UCTD Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2023. ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Electoral volatility is considered a vital component in the optimal functioning of a multi-party democracy. The fact that parties can win or lose votes is what gives democracy meaning, as it is this threat of a loss of power that is essential in ensuring accountability and warding off complacency on the part of the incumbent. However, electoral change is only possible if there is a genuine likelihood that a portion of the electorate will switch their vote between parties. While South African electoral politics does exhibit some signs of vote switching, the growth in abstentions far outstrips the rise in switching. Indeed, voters are increasingly retreating to the exiting category, instead of moving their support to an alternative party. This process of ‘dealignment without realignment’ is ominous for South Africa’s process of democratic consolidation, as it not only depresses turnout, but also stifles electoral competition and volatility. Accordingly, this thesis investigates the motivations for both vote switching and exiting among the supporters of the African National Congress (ANC). This is done in order to understand the underlying mechanisms as to why some ANC voters are able to switch their vote, while other previously active ANC voters exit the party system and abstain when they become disillusioned with their traditional political home. In order to address this research problem, this study employed a cross-sectional research design with a quantitative methodology and makes use of public opinion data sourced from the Comparative National Election Project (CNEP) 2019 post-election survey. The analysis began with exploring the bivariate relationships between a variety of theoretically relevant factors and a 2014 ANC voter’s decision to switch their vote or exit in the 2019 election. The bivariate findings show that the decision to either switch parties or exit largely pivots around trust in opposition parties. 2014 ANC voters with high levels of trust in the opposition are likely to switch parties in 2019, while distrust in opposition parties induces exiting. This thesis also conducted a multinomial logistic regression, which controlled for other significant predictors of switching or exiting. The model showed that exiters are motivated by variables that typically drive turnout, such as age, partisanship, gender and campaign attention; while switchers are dissatisfied with, and distrustful of the ANC, perceive the Democratic Alliance (DA) as inclusive, and are overwhelmingly urban. However, the results show that the more a voter trusts the opposition, the more likely they are to switch rather than to exit. The main thrust of this analysis is therefore that the transition to opposition parties is, in part, marred by an inability to identify a trustworthy and racially inclusive political alternative to the ANC. As such, to arrest the current ‘dealignment without realignment’ trend and stimulate electoral volatility, levels of trust and inclusivity relating to opposition parties ought to be augmented. Opposition parties thus need to work towards presenting themselves as trustworthy, legitimate and inclusive options to the majority of the electorate. AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Verkiesingsvlugtigheid word beskou as ’n belangrike komponent van die optimale funksionering van ’n veelparty-demokrasie. Die feit dat partye stemme kan wen of verloor is wat aan demokrasie sy betekenis gee, aangesien dit hierdie dreigement van ’n verlies van mag is wat aanspreeklikheid verseker en keer dat die posbekleër nie selfvoldaan word nie. Verkiesingsverandering is egter net moontlik indien daar ’n werklike kans is dat sommige kiesers vir ’n ander party sal stem. Hoewel die Suid-Afrikaanse verkiesingspolitiek ’n paar tekens toon dat kiesers vir ’n ander party sal stem, is die groei in stemonthouding baie groter as die toename in oorskakeling na ’n ander party. Inderwaarheid, kiesers beweeg toenemend na die kategorie van onthouding, in plaas daarvan om hulle ondersteuning aan ’n alternatiewe party te gee. Hierdie proses van ‘afwyking sonder herbelyning’ (dealignment without realignment) is onheilspellend vir die proses van demokratiese konsolidasie in Suid-Afrika aangesien dit nie net opkoms onderdruk nie, maar ook verkiesingsmededingendheid en -vlugtigheid smoor. Gevolglik ondersoek hierdie tesis die motiverings vir beide stemverandering en -onthouding onder ondersteuners van die African National Congress (ANC). Dit is gedoen om ’n begrip te bekom van die onderliggende meganismes wat daartoe lei dat sommige ANC-kiesers hulle stem kan verander, terwyl ander voormalig aktiewe ANC-kiesers uit die partystelsel tree en hulle stemme weerhou wanneer hul tradisionele politieke tuiste hulle ontnugter. Om hierdie navorsingsprobleem aan te spreek, het hierdie studie gebruik gemaak van ’n kwantitatiewe navorsingsontwerp met deursnee openbare meningsdata afkomstig van die Comparative National Election Project (CNEP) ná-verkiesingsopname in 2019. Die analise het begin met die verkenning van die tweeveranderlike verhoudings tussen ’n verskeidenheid teoreties relevante faktore en ’n 2014 ANC-kieser se besluit om hulle stem te verander of om nie in 2019 te stem nie. Die tweeveranderlike bevindings toon dat die besluit om van partye te verander of van stemming te onthou grootliks berus op vertroue in opposisiepartye. Daar was ’n groot kans dat ANC-kiesers in 2014 met hoë vlakke van vertroue in die opposisie vir ’n ander party in 2019 sou stem, terwyl ’n gebrek aan vertroue in opposisiepartye gelei het tot onthouding. Hierdie tesis het ook multinomiale logistiese regressie gedoen wat vir ander beduidende voorspellers van verandering of onthouding kontroleer het. Die model toon dat onthouers gemotiveer is deur veranderlikes wat tipies opkoms dryf, soos ouderdom, partydigheid, geslag en aandag skenk aan veldtogte, terwyl dié wat van party verander het, ontevrede was met óf wantroue in die ANC gehad het, óf die Demokratiese Alliansie as inklusief beskou het. Hulle was ook oorweldigend stedelik. Die resultate toon egter dat hoe meer ’n kieser die opposisie vertrou, hoe groter die moontlikheid dat hulle sal verander eerder as om te onthou. Die hoofstrekking van hierdie analise is dus dat die oorgang na opposisiepartye deels aangetas word deur ’n onvermoë om ’n betroubare en ras-inklusiewe politieke alternatief vir die ANC te identifiseer. As sulks is dit nodig om vlakke van vertroue en inklusiwiteit met betrekking tot opposisiepartye aan te vul om sodoende die huidige tendens tot ‘afwyking sonder herbelyning’ te stuit en om verkiesingsvlugtigheid te stimuleer. Opposisiepartye moet dus werk om hulleself as betroubare, regmatige en inklusiewe opsies vir die meerderheid kiesers daar te stel. Masters 2023-02-18T11:14:23Z 2023-05-18T06:58:32Z 2023-02-18T11:14:23Z 2023-05-18T06:58:32Z 2023-03 Thesis http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/126979 en_ZA Stellenbosch University xiv, 157 pages application/pdf Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| spellingShingle | African National Congress Elections -- South Africa Voting -- South Africa Politial science South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994- Political parties -- South Africa Secret ballot Voter turnout Democracy -- South Africa Political participation South Africa -- History -- 21st century Loyalty UCTD Jacobs, Edward Keenan “The ANC will rule until Jesus comes”: The determinants of loyalty, switching and exiting for the African National Congress in the 2019 elections |
| title | “The ANC will rule until Jesus comes”: The determinants of loyalty, switching and exiting for the African National Congress in the 2019 elections |
| title_full | “The ANC will rule until Jesus comes”: The determinants of loyalty, switching and exiting for the African National Congress in the 2019 elections |
| title_fullStr | “The ANC will rule until Jesus comes”: The determinants of loyalty, switching and exiting for the African National Congress in the 2019 elections |
| title_full_unstemmed | “The ANC will rule until Jesus comes”: The determinants of loyalty, switching and exiting for the African National Congress in the 2019 elections |
| title_short | “The ANC will rule until Jesus comes”: The determinants of loyalty, switching and exiting for the African National Congress in the 2019 elections |
| title_sort | the anc will rule until jesus comes the determinants of loyalty switching and exiting for the african national congress in the 2019 elections |
| topic | African National Congress Elections -- South Africa Voting -- South Africa Politial science South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994- Political parties -- South Africa Secret ballot Voter turnout Democracy -- South Africa Political participation South Africa -- History -- 21st century Loyalty UCTD |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/126979 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jacobsedwardkeenan theancwillruleuntiljesuscomesthedeterminantsofloyaltyswitchingandexitingfortheafricannationalcongressinthe2019elections |