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Validating the National Coastal Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment’s inundation and erosion layers for the KwaDukuza Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2023.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | en_ZA |
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Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University
2023
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| _version_ | 1867613773141901312 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Law, Jessica |
| author2 | Lück-Vogel, Melanie |
| author_browse | Law, Jessica Lück-Vogel, Melanie |
| author_facet | Lück-Vogel, Melanie Law, Jessica |
| author_sort | Law, Jessica |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | Stellenbosch University |
| description | Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2023. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/127285 |
| institution | Stellenbosch University (South Africa) |
| language | en_ZA |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:41:28.315Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| publisherStr | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| spelling | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/127285 Validating the National Coastal Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment’s inundation and erosion layers for the KwaDukuza Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa Law, Jessica Lück-Vogel, Melanie Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences. Dept. of Geography and Environmental Studies. Coastal zone management -- South Africa -- KwaZulu-Natal Flood control -- South Africa -- KwaZulu-Natal Climatic changes Environmental risk assessment -- South Africa -- KwaZulu-Natal National Coastal Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment UCTD Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2023. ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Globally, coastal regions are at risk of flooding and erosion hazards, which often cause extensive damage to human settlements and coastal ecosystems. Climate change will aggravate the frequency and intensity of these hazards due to anticipated increases in the occurrence of extreme weather events and sea level rise. Currently, some 40% of people live within 100 kms of the coast, with coastal populations continuing to grow rapidly, making it critical to conduct coastal risk assessments to determine the risk of flooding and erosion. Such assessments provide local authorities and other decision-makers with information to guide mitigation and risk reduction measures to protect exposed areas. The most recent coastal risk assessment conducted in South Africa, the National Coastal Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CoVu), employed predicted future scenarios to determine the nature of coastal risks likely to be generated by climate change. However, the accuracy and validity of the results are unknown, given that hypothetical future scenarios were used in the analysis that cannot be validated with historical observation data. This study sought to test the robustness of the CoVu methodological approach by modelling coastal flood and erosion risk using the storm surge that occurred along the KwaZulu-Natal coast in 2007, with specific focus on the significant damage to coastal urbanised parts of the study area, which is the KwaDukuza municipality. The coastal inundation assessment was conducted using the single-value roughness enhanced Bathtub model (eBTM). The flood and erosion modelling were conducted in ArcMap 10.8.2, a GIS software. The input data included high resolution topographic data, water source data, water levels, a surface roughness coefficient, coastline, geology, wave run up height, land cover, protective structures, and foredune volume. The data were pre-processed prior to running the flood and erosion modelling. Ten points were selected along the KwaDukuza coastline, for which the produced flood mask, erosion modulation, and erosion distance were analysed and discussed. References for the analysis of the results were post-storm aerial imagery of the coast and interviews that were conducted with various coastal experts knowledgeable about the 2007 storm event, such as those involved in the post-event analysis and recovery. These experts assisted in validating the outputs of the analysis. According to expert observations, of the ten points analysed, none were found to predict the historic storm impact accurately, either under- or over-estimating the extent of the flooding and erosion outputs, suggesting that the methodological approach presented some limitations. The results of the study inferred that based on the test case of the 2007 storm surge, the CoVu Assessment is only partially accurate in the prediction of coastal flooding and erosion on the KwaDukuza coast. It suggests that some of the data sets used should be reclassified, particularly to increase the reliability of the predictions and to potentially reduce vulnerability and exposure of coastal populations to the risk of climate change. AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Wêreldwyd is kusstreke aan die risiko van oorstroming en erosiegevare blootgestel, wat dikwels grootskaalse skade aan menslike nedersettings en kus-ekostelsels aanrig. Klimaatsverandering sal die frekwensie en intensiteit van hierdie gevare vererger, weens die verwagte toename in die voorkoms van uiterste weergebeurtenisse en die styging van die seevlak. Tans woon sowat 40% van die menslike bevolking binne 100 km van die kus af, met kusbevolkings wat steeds vinnig groei en wat kusrisiko-assesserings om die risiko van oorstroming en erosie te bepaal noodsaaklik maak. Sodanige assesserings voorsien plaaslike owerhede en ander besluitnemers van inligting om die maatreëls vir versagting en risikovermindering ter beskerming van blootgestelde gebiede te rig. Die mees onlangse kusrisiko-assessering wat in Suid-Afrika gedoen is, die Nasionale Assessering van Kusstreke vir Kwesbaarheid vir Klimaatsverandering (CoVu), het voorspelde toekomstige scenario’s gebruik om die aard van die kusrisiko’s wat waarskynlik deur klimaatsverandering teweeg gebring sal word, vas te stel. Die akkuraatheid en geldigheid van die resultate is egter onbekend, gegewe dat hipotetiese toekomstige scenario’s, wat nie deur historiese waarnemingsdata gestaaf kan word nie, in die ontleding gebruik is. Hierdie studie wou die robuustheid van die CoVu se metodologiese benadering toets, deur kus-oorstromings- en erosierisiko’s te modelleer met behulp van die storm-stortsee wat in 2007 langs die kus van KwaZulu-Natal voorgekom het, en wat beduidende skade aan die verstedelikte kusgebiede van die KwaDukuza Munisipaliteit aangerig het. Die kusoorstromingsassessering is uitgevor met behulp van die enkelwaarde-ruheid verbeterde badmodel (eBTM). Die oorstromings- en erosiemodellering is in ArcMap10.8.2, ʼn soort GIS sagteware, gedoen. Die invoerdata het hoë resolusie-topografiese data, waterbrondata, golfoploophoogte, grondbedekking, beskermende strukture, geografiese erodeerbaarheid, nastormbeelde asook historie vloed- en erosie-inhoud op te spoor. Die data is vooraf verwerk, voor die oorstromings- en erosiemodellering gedoen is. Tien plekke is langs die kuslyn van KwaDukuza gekies, waarvoor die gelewerde oorstromingsmasker, erosiemodulering en erosie-afstand ontleed en bespreek is. Verwysings vir die ontleding van die resultate was die lugfoto’s van die kus ná die storm en onderhoude wat met verskillende kuskenners met kennis van die stormgebeurtenis van 2007 gevoer is, soos diegene wat ná afloop van die gebeure by ontleding en herstel betrokke was. Hierdie kenners het gehelp met die stawing van die uitsette van die ontleding. Volgens die kenners se waarneming is geen van die tien punte wat ontleed is, akkuraat bevind met die voorspelling van die historiese storm se impak nie. Die omvang van die oorstromings- en erosie-uitsette is óf oorskat, óf onderskat, wat daarop dui dat die metodologiese benadering sekere beperkings inhou. Die resultate van die studie dui aan dat, op grond van die toetsgeval van die storm-stortsee van 2007, die CoVu-assessering slegs gedeeltelik akkuraat is met die voorspelling van kusoorstroming en -erosie aan die KwaDukuza-kus. Dit dui daarop dat sommige van die datastelle wat gebruik word, herklassifiseer moet word, veral om die betroubaarheid van die voorspellings te verhoog en om kwesbaarheid en blootstelling van kusbevolkings moontlik aan die risiko’s van klimaatsverandering kan verminder. Stellenbosch University 2023-02-23T11:42:28Z 2023-05-18T07:14:03Z 2023-02-23T11:42:28Z 2023-05-18T07:14:03Z 2023-03 Thesis http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/127285 en_ZA Stellenbosch University 95 pages : illustrations application/pdf Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| spellingShingle | Coastal zone management -- South Africa -- KwaZulu-Natal Flood control -- South Africa -- KwaZulu-Natal Climatic changes Environmental risk assessment -- South Africa -- KwaZulu-Natal National Coastal Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment UCTD Law, Jessica Validating the National Coastal Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment’s inundation and erosion layers for the KwaDukuza Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa |
| title | Validating the National Coastal Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment’s inundation and erosion layers for the KwaDukuza Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa |
| title_full | Validating the National Coastal Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment’s inundation and erosion layers for the KwaDukuza Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa |
| title_fullStr | Validating the National Coastal Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment’s inundation and erosion layers for the KwaDukuza Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Validating the National Coastal Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment’s inundation and erosion layers for the KwaDukuza Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa |
| title_short | Validating the National Coastal Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment’s inundation and erosion layers for the KwaDukuza Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa |
| title_sort | validating the national coastal climate change vulnerability assessment s inundation and erosion layers for the kwadukuza municipality kwazulu natal south africa |
| topic | Coastal zone management -- South Africa -- KwaZulu-Natal Flood control -- South Africa -- KwaZulu-Natal Climatic changes Environmental risk assessment -- South Africa -- KwaZulu-Natal National Coastal Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment UCTD |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/127285 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lawjessica validatingthenationalcoastalclimatechangevulnerabilityassessmentsinundationanderosionlayersforthekwadukuzamunicipalitykwazulunatalsouthafrica |