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Incorporating short-term operational constraints into long-term generation planning: a Namibian case study
Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2023.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | en_ZA en_ZA |
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Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University
2023
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| _version_ | 1867613894823903232 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Mouton, Daniello |
| author2 | Bekker, Bernard |
| author_browse | Bekker, Bernard Mouton, Daniello |
| author_facet | Bekker, Bernard Mouton, Daniello |
| author_sort | Mouton, Daniello |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | Stellenbosch University |
| description | Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2023. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/127380 |
| institution | Stellenbosch University (South Africa) |
| language | en_ZA en_ZA |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:43:24.214Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| publisherStr | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| spelling | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/127380 Incorporating short-term operational constraints into long-term generation planning: a Namibian case study Mouton, Daniello Bekker, Bernard Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Engineering. Dept. of Electrical and Electronic Engineering. Power resources -- Namibia Electric power production -- Namibia Energy policy -- Namibia Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2023. ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Namibia possesses an abundance of natural energy resources that have the potential to be used for electricity production. At present, Namibia does not have enough generation capacity to meet its electricity demand. The Namibian Ministry of Mines and Energy thus published the National Integrated Resource Plan in 2016 with a view to meet 100% of its peak load demand and at least 75% of its energy demand through internal or local sources. This study is motivated by three key issues identified in the Namibian generation expansion plan contained in the National Integrated Resource Plan, namely: (1) challenges presented by an increased amount of variable renewable energy present in Namibia’s power system; (2) the sole use of traditional reliability metrics such as Loss of Load Probability and Expected Unsupplied Energy; and (3) the absence of any flexibility assessment of the proposed power system. This study hypothesises that the sole use of conventional reliability metrics in long-term generation expansion planning does not guarantee adequate flexibility in power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy. The flexibility constraints of the power system are also considered with a view to test the hypothesis, which is necessary in the context of the three aforesaid key issues. To this end, this study makes use of emerging generation planning techniques, including Flexibility Assessment Methods, that are capable of ensuring better evaluation of operational reliability. By simulating the Namibian power system within the context of the recently published National Integrated Resource Plan, the hypothesis is proven, and this study concludes that the sole use of conventional reliability metrics in Namibia’s long-term generation expansion plan does not guarantee adequate flexibility in its power systems that has a high share of variable renewable energy. AFRIKAANS OPSOMMING: Namibië beskik oor 'n oorvloed natuurlike energiebronne wat die potensiaal het om vir elektrisiteitproduksie gebruik te word. Tans het Namibië nie genoeg opwekkingskapasiteit om in sy elektrisiteitsvraag te voorsien nie. Die Namibiese Ministerie van Myne en Energie het dus die Nasionale Geïntegreerde Hulpbronplan in 2016 gepubliseer met die oog op 100% van sy piekvragvraag en minstens 75% van sy energievraag deur interne of plaaslike bronne. Hierdie studie word gemotiveer deur drie sleutelkwessies wat geïdentifiseer is in die Namibiese opwekkingsuitbreidingsplan wat in die Nasionale Geïntegreerde Hulpbronplan vervat is, naamlik: (1) uitdagings wat deur 'n groter hoeveelheid veranderlike hernubare energie teenwoordig is in Namibië se kragstelsel; (2) die uitsluitlike gebruik van tradisionele betroubaarheidsmaatstawwe soos verlies aan laswaarskynlikheid en verwagte onvoorsiene energie; en (3) die afwesigheid van enige buigsaamheidsbeoordeling van die voorgestelde kragstelsel. Hierdie studie veronderstel dat die uitsluitlike gebruik van konvensionele betroubaarheidsmaatstawwe in langtermynopwekkingsuitbreidingsbeplanning nie voldoende buigsaamheid in kragstelsels met hoë aandele veranderlike hernubare energie waarborg nie. Die buigsaamheidsbeperkings van die kragstelsel word ook oorweeg met die oog op die toets van die hipotese, wat nodig is in die konteks van die drie voorgenoemde sleutelkwessies. Vir hierdie doel maak hierdie studie gebruik van opkomende generasie beplanningstegnieke, insluitend buigsaamheidsassesseringsmetodes, wat in staat is om beter evaluering van operasionele betroubaarheid te verseker. Deur die Namibiese kragstelsel binne die konteks van die onlangs gepubliseerde Nasionale Geïntegreerde Hulpbronplan te simuleer, word die hipotese bewys, en hierdie studie kom tot die gevolgtrekking dat die uitsluitlike gebruik van konvensionele betroubaarheidsmaatstawwe in Namibië se langtermynopwekkingsuitbreidingsplan nie voldoende buigsaamheid in sy kragstelsels wat 'n hoë aandeel van veranderlike hernubare energie het. Masters 2023-03-03T08:42:37Z 2023-05-18T07:19:11Z 2023-03-03T08:42:37Z 2023-05-18T07:19:11Z 2023-03 Thesis http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/127380 en_ZA en_ZA Stellenbosch University xvi, 107 pages : illustrations application/pdf Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| spellingShingle | Power resources -- Namibia Electric power production -- Namibia Energy policy -- Namibia Mouton, Daniello Incorporating short-term operational constraints into long-term generation planning: a Namibian case study |
| title | Incorporating short-term operational constraints into long-term generation planning: a Namibian case study |
| title_full | Incorporating short-term operational constraints into long-term generation planning: a Namibian case study |
| title_fullStr | Incorporating short-term operational constraints into long-term generation planning: a Namibian case study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Incorporating short-term operational constraints into long-term generation planning: a Namibian case study |
| title_short | Incorporating short-term operational constraints into long-term generation planning: a Namibian case study |
| title_sort | incorporating short term operational constraints into long term generation planning a namibian case study |
| topic | Power resources -- Namibia Electric power production -- Namibia Energy policy -- Namibia |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/127380 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT moutondaniello incorporatingshorttermoperationalconstraintsintolongtermgenerationplanninganamibiancasestudy |