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The development of an Eldana Risk Index
Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2024.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | en_ZA |
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Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University
2024
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| _version_ | 1867614112986431488 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Prinsloo, Philip |
| author2 | Potgieter, Linke |
| author_browse | Potgieter, Linke Prinsloo, Philip |
| author_facet | Potgieter, Linke Prinsloo, Philip |
| author_sort | Prinsloo, Philip |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | Stellenbosch University |
| description | Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2024. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/130291 |
| institution | Stellenbosch University (South Africa) |
| language | en_ZA |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:46:52.458Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| publisherStr | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| spelling | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/130291 The development of an Eldana Risk Index Prinsloo, Philip Potgieter, Linke Nel, Hannelie Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Logistics. Sugarcane industry -- Appropriate technology Sugarcane industry -- Environmental aspects Pests -- Control Sugarcane industry -- Mathematical models UCTD Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2024. ENGLISH SUMMARY: The South African sugarcane industry faces significant challenges due to declining global sugar demand, a trend triggered by national government taxation of the sugar industry, consumer product regulations, and the need to address productivity losses caused by several pest species such as the African stem borer, Eldana saccharina Walker (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae). Numerous mathematical models have been developed to investigate the population dynamics of this pest species and to improve pest control strategies through biological control, the release of sterile insects, and the use of genetically modified sugarcane containing insecticidal genes from the bacterium, Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) sugarcane. Additionally, detailed mechanistic sugarcane growth models are employed by the industry to predict yields based on climatic factors. However, an integrated framework that links sugarcane growth models with Eldana saccharina population dynamics models has not yet been established. Such a framework would enhance decision support for pest management by providing a more integrated view of the sugarcane agroecosystem. This study proposes an Eldana Risk Index (ERI) model as a decision support tool. Building on previous research, this model integrates output from sugarcane crop models with Eldana saccharina population growth models through seasonally integrated risk profiles. The ERI model’s primary structure includes two main dimensions, assessed daily by combining outputs from the sugarcane growth model CaneSim®, weather data, and an Eldana saccharina population growth model adapted from previously developed models. The first dimension focuses on sugarcane, encompassing factors such as temperature, water stress related to cane health, susceptibility to infestation, and damage due to infestation. The second dimension focuses on risks associated with Eldana saccharina, encompassing the effects of temperature on pest abundance, the stress of insect desiccation, and the influence of temperature and precipitation on insect desiccation and mortality due to temperature. The ERI model presents an interdisciplinary approach for quantifying infestation risks in the sugarcane industry, thereby offering improved decision support for integrated pest management. Additionally, this study seeks to underscore various opportunities in applying real-time pest abundance methods and technologies. These advancements aim to further augment the effectiveness of integrated pest management strategies, particularly against insects such as Eldana saccharina. AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Suid-Afrikaanse suikerrietindustrie staar beduidende uitdagings in die gesig weens dalende wereldwye suikervraag, ’n neiging wat veroorsaak word deur nasionale regering se belasting op die suikerindustrie, verbruikersprodukregulasies, en die behoefte om produktiwiteitsverliese aan te spreek wat veroorsaak word deur verskeie plaagspesies soos die Afrika-stingelboorder, Eldana saccharina Walker (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae). Verskeie wiskundige modelle is ontwikkel om die populasie dinamika van hierdie plaagspesie te ondersoek en om plaagbeheerstrategiee te verbeter deur biologiese beheer, die vrystelling van steriele insekte, en die gebruik van geneties gemodifiseerde suikerriet wat insekdodende gene bevat van die bakterie, Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) suikerriet. Daarbenewens word gedetailleerde meganistiese suikerrietgroei modelle deur die industrie gebruik om opbrengste te voorspel op grond van klimaatsfaktore. Nietemin, ’n geintegreerde raamwerk wat suikerrietgroei modelle koppel met Eldana saccharina bevolkingsdinamika modelle is nog nie vasgestel nie. So ’n raamwerk sou besluitneming ondersteuning vir plaagbestuur verbeter deur ’n meer geintegreerde siening van die suikerriet agro-ekosisteem te bied. Hierdie studie stel ’n Eldana Risiko Indeks (ERI) model voor as ’n besluitneming ondersteuningsinstrument. Gebaseer op vorige navorsing, integreer hierdie model uitsette van suikerrietgewasmodelle met Eldana saccharina bevolkingsgroei modelle deur seisoenaal geintegreerde risikoprofiele. Die primere struktuur van die ERI model sluit twee hoofdimensies in, daagliks geassesseer deur uitsette van die suikerrietgroei model CaneSim®, weerdata, en ’n Eldana saccharina bevolkingsgroei model aangepas vanaf voorheen ontwikkelde modelle. Die eerste dimensie fokus op suikerriet, insluitend faktore soos temperatuur, waterstres wat verband hou met rietgesondheid, vatbaarheid vir infestasie, en skade as gevolg van infestasie. Die tweede dimensie fokus op risiko’s wat verband hou met Eldana saccharina, insluitend die effekte van temperatuur op plaag oorvloed, die stres van insek uitdroging, en die invloed van temperatuur en neerslag op insek uitdroging en sterftes as gevolg van temperatuur. Die ERI model bied ’n interdissiplinere benadering vir die kwantifisering van infestasie risiko’s in die suikerrietindustrie, en bied sodoende verbeterde besluitneming ondersteuning vir geintegreerde plaagbestuur. Daarbenewens soek hierdie studie om verskeie geleenthede in die toepassing van real-time plaagoorvloed metodes en tegnologiee te beklemtoon. Hierdie vorderings streef daarna om die effektiwiteit van geintegreerde plaagbestuur strategiee verder te verhoog, veral teen insekte soos Eldana saccharina. Masters 2024-03-05T04:51:21Z 2024-04-26T12:15:50Z 2024-03-05T04:51:21Z 2024-04-26T12:15:50Z 2024-03 Thesis https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/130291 en_ZA Stellenbosch University xx, 196 pages : illustrations, maps application/pdf Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| spellingShingle | Sugarcane industry -- Appropriate technology Sugarcane industry -- Environmental aspects Pests -- Control Sugarcane industry -- Mathematical models UCTD Prinsloo, Philip The development of an Eldana Risk Index |
| title | The development of an Eldana Risk Index |
| title_full | The development of an Eldana Risk Index |
| title_fullStr | The development of an Eldana Risk Index |
| title_full_unstemmed | The development of an Eldana Risk Index |
| title_short | The development of an Eldana Risk Index |
| title_sort | development of an eldana risk index |
| topic | Sugarcane industry -- Appropriate technology Sugarcane industry -- Environmental aspects Pests -- Control Sugarcane industry -- Mathematical models UCTD |
| url | https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/130291 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT prinsloophilip thedevelopmentofaneldanariskindex AT prinsloophilip developmentofaneldanariskindex |