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Evaluating the economic impact of Southern Africa’s public policy response to the management of covid-19
ENGLISH SUMMARY: The COVID-19 pandemic has led many countries to implement strict lockdown measures to safeguard public health. Public policy responses are crucial for mitigating its effects on different sectors and communities. However, there is no size-fits-all approach to managing the pandemic. S...
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Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University
2025
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| _version_ | 1867613805017563136 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Ditsela, Mokome Sabrina |
| author2 | Rabie, Babette |
| author_browse | Ditsela, Mokome Sabrina Rabie, Babette |
| author_facet | Rabie, Babette Ditsela, Mokome Sabrina |
| author_sort | Ditsela, Mokome Sabrina |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | Stellenbosch University |
| description | ENGLISH SUMMARY: The COVID-19 pandemic has led many countries to implement strict lockdown measures to safeguard public health. Public policy responses are crucial for mitigating its effects on different sectors and communities. However, there is no size-fits-all approach to managing the pandemic. Southern African countries applied localised responses to the pandemic with lockdowns of varying intensity. The impact has been far-reaching. This study evaluates the economic impact of COVID-19 containment measures on selected countries in Southern Africa, namely South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Zambia. This study adopted a comparative case study design to compare the COVID-19 response measures and economic impacts of the four cases. A desktop approach reviewed the available qualitative data to reflect the economic impact of key indicators such as GDP, unemployment, poverty, and inflation. The pandemic and lockdowns had a profound and adverse economic impact. This exacerbated the pre-existing structural challenges in the economy, which offered sluggish economic growth, high unemployment rates and poverty. The findings indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown significantly affected the economies of South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Zambia. There was a significant decline in GDP, employment, poverty, and an increase in inflation. South Africa's GDP growth in 2019 was 0.2%, but the real GDP growth for 2020 was revised to minus 8.2%, with sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and retail bearing the hardest impact. Botswana's GDP decreased by 7.9% in 2020, the sharpest decline since the Great Recession. The hard-hit sectors included tourism and mining, which resulted in a massive decline in the export of goods. Zimbabwe's GDP contraction and recession in 25 years were exacerbated by the pandemic, resulting in a minus 4.5% GDP growth for 2020. This contraction resulted from the shutdown of economic activities, disruption of trade and production, increased debt, and exacerbation of existing structural inequalities. Zambia's economy also experienced a 4.0% decline in 2020 as a result of unparalleled deterioration across all major sectors of the economy as a result of disruption in supply chains, business closures, travel bans, and lower consumer spending. The lockdown effectively contained the virus, but border closures, restrictions on trade, and disruption in cross-border value chains and trade negatively affected the economies of Southern African countries. The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly worsened economic constraints in the region, resulting in an immediate contraction of GDP and increased unemployment, poverty, and inflation. Based on the findings, the thesis offers recommendations to improve the management of future economic lockdowns should a similar situation arise. Key recommendations include economic diversification to decrease the impact on overall GDP in sectors most vulnerable to trade and movement restrictions, improved economic infrastructure to enable the economy to continue activities regardless of shifts in modalities, and the support of diverse working methods that enable business continuity. To support community resilience, there is a need to revitalize small and medium-sized enterprises, invest in skill development, and improve social nets to address poverty. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated that governments should try to avoid chaotic and poorly coordinated responses, increase regional and international collaboration, and establish clear and transparent communication channels. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/131642 |
| institution | Stellenbosch University (South Africa) |
| language | en_ZA |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:41:58.332Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| publisherStr | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| spelling | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/131642 Evaluating the economic impact of Southern Africa’s public policy response to the management of covid-19 Ditsela, Mokome Sabrina Rabie, Babette Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. School of Public Leadership. Thesis (MCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2024. COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020 -- Economic aspects COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020 -- Social aspects COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020 -- Management UCTD ENGLISH SUMMARY: The COVID-19 pandemic has led many countries to implement strict lockdown measures to safeguard public health. Public policy responses are crucial for mitigating its effects on different sectors and communities. However, there is no size-fits-all approach to managing the pandemic. Southern African countries applied localised responses to the pandemic with lockdowns of varying intensity. The impact has been far-reaching. This study evaluates the economic impact of COVID-19 containment measures on selected countries in Southern Africa, namely South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Zambia. This study adopted a comparative case study design to compare the COVID-19 response measures and economic impacts of the four cases. A desktop approach reviewed the available qualitative data to reflect the economic impact of key indicators such as GDP, unemployment, poverty, and inflation. The pandemic and lockdowns had a profound and adverse economic impact. This exacerbated the pre-existing structural challenges in the economy, which offered sluggish economic growth, high unemployment rates and poverty. The findings indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown significantly affected the economies of South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Zambia. There was a significant decline in GDP, employment, poverty, and an increase in inflation. South Africa's GDP growth in 2019 was 0.2%, but the real GDP growth for 2020 was revised to minus 8.2%, with sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and retail bearing the hardest impact. Botswana's GDP decreased by 7.9% in 2020, the sharpest decline since the Great Recession. The hard-hit sectors included tourism and mining, which resulted in a massive decline in the export of goods. Zimbabwe's GDP contraction and recession in 25 years were exacerbated by the pandemic, resulting in a minus 4.5% GDP growth for 2020. This contraction resulted from the shutdown of economic activities, disruption of trade and production, increased debt, and exacerbation of existing structural inequalities. Zambia's economy also experienced a 4.0% decline in 2020 as a result of unparalleled deterioration across all major sectors of the economy as a result of disruption in supply chains, business closures, travel bans, and lower consumer spending. The lockdown effectively contained the virus, but border closures, restrictions on trade, and disruption in cross-border value chains and trade negatively affected the economies of Southern African countries. The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly worsened economic constraints in the region, resulting in an immediate contraction of GDP and increased unemployment, poverty, and inflation. Based on the findings, the thesis offers recommendations to improve the management of future economic lockdowns should a similar situation arise. Key recommendations include economic diversification to decrease the impact on overall GDP in sectors most vulnerable to trade and movement restrictions, improved economic infrastructure to enable the economy to continue activities regardless of shifts in modalities, and the support of diverse working methods that enable business continuity. To support community resilience, there is a need to revitalize small and medium-sized enterprises, invest in skill development, and improve social nets to address poverty. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated that governments should try to avoid chaotic and poorly coordinated responses, increase regional and international collaboration, and establish clear and transparent communication channels. AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die COVID-19-pandemie het daartoe gelei dat baie lande streng toesluitmaatree ls ingestel het om openbare gesondheid te beskerm. Regeringsmaatree ls is van kardinale belang om die impak van die pandemie op verskillende sektore en gemeenskappe te beperk. Daar is egter nie ‘n enkele benadering om die pandemie te bestuur nie. Lande in Suider-Afrika het plaaslik op die pandemie gereageer met inperkings van verskillende intensiteit. Die gevolge was verreikend. Hierdie studie evalueer die ekonomiese impak van COVID-19-beperkingsmaatree ls op geselekteerde lande in Suider-Afrika, naamlik Suid-Afrika, Botswana, Zimbabwe en Zambie . Hierdie studie het 'n vergelykende gevallestudie gebruik om die COVID-19-beheermaatree ls en ekonomiese impak van die vier gevalle te vergelyk. Die studie analiseer bestaande kwalitatiewe en kwantitatiewe data in literatuur om die ekonomiese impak op kernaanwysers soos BBP, werkloosheid, armoede en inflasie te ondersoek. Die COVID-19-pandemie en inperkings het 'n intense negatiewe ekonomiese impak gehad. Dit het die reeds bestaande strukturele probleme in die ekonomie vererger, wat stadige ekonomiese groei, hoe werkloosheid en armoede meegebring het. Die studie bevindinge toon dat die COVID-19-pandemie en inperking die ekonomiee van Suid-Afrika, Botswana, Zimbabwe en Zambie aansienlik beinvloed het. Daar was 'n aansienlike daling in BBP, indiensneming, armoede en 'n styging in inflasie. Suid-Afrika se BBP-groei in 2019 was 0,2%, maar ree le BBP-groei vir 2020 is na minus 8,2% hersien, met sektore soos Suid-Afrika se BBP-groei was 0,2% in 2019, maar ree le BBP-groei vir 2020 is na minus 8,2% hersien, met sektore soos konstruksie, vervaardiging en kleinhandel wat die swaarste getref is. Botswana se BBP het in 2020 met 7,9% gedaal, die skerpste daling sedert die Groot Depressie. Die toerisme en mynbou sektore was swaar getref wat gelei het tot 'n massiewe daling in die uitvoer van goedere. Zimbabwe se BBP-inkrimping en 25-jaar-resessie is deur die pandemie vererger, wat gelei het tot BBP-groei van -4,5% vir 2020. Die inkrimping was te wyte aan die staking van ekonomiese aktiwiteite, ontwrigting van handel en produksie, hoe r skuld en die verergering van bestaande strukturele ongelykhede. Zambie se ekonomie beleef ook in 2020' n ongekende agteruitgang en afname van 4,0% in alle sleutelsektore van die ekonomie. Dit is die gevolg van voorsieningsketting-ontwrigting, sluiting van besighede, reisverbod en laer verbruikersbesteding. Die inperking het die virus effektief bestuur, maar grenssluitings, handelsbeperkings en ontwrigtings in transversele handel oor grense het die ekonomiee van lande in Suider-Afrika negatief beinvloed. Die COVID-19-pandemie het ekonomiese beperkings in die streek aansienlik vererger, wat gelei het tot 'n inkrimping in BBP en 'n toename in werkloosheid, armoede en inflasie. Gegee die bevindinge bied die tesis aanbevelings om die bestuur van toekomstige ekonomiese inperkings te verbeter, sou 'n soortgelyke situasie ontstaan. Sleutelaanbevelings sluit in ekonomiese diversifikasie om die impak op die BBP te verminder in sektore kwesbaar vir handel- en vervoerbeperkings, verbeterde ekonomiese infrastruktuur om die ekonomie in staat te stel om bedrywighede voort te sit, ongeag verskuiwings in modaliteite, en ondersteuning van alternatiewe werkmetodes om besigheidskontinui teit moontlik te maak. Die ondersteuning van gemeenskapsveerkragtigheid vereis die bevordering van klein en mediumgrootte ondernemings, investering in vaardigheidsontwikkeling en die verbetering van maatskaplike veiligheidsnette om armoede te takel. Verder het die COVID-19-pandemie beklemtoon dat regerings chaotiese en swak gekoo rdineerde reaksies moet vermy, streeks- en internasionale samewerking moet verhoog en duidelike en deursigtige kommunikasiekanale moet vestig. Masters 2025-02-03T09:00:38Z 2025-02-03T09:00:38Z 2024-12 Thesis https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/131642 en_ZA Stellenbosch University xii, 184 pages : illustrations application/pdf Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| spellingShingle | COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020 -- Economic aspects COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020 -- Social aspects COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020 -- Management UCTD Ditsela, Mokome Sabrina Evaluating the economic impact of Southern Africa’s public policy response to the management of covid-19 |
| title | Evaluating the economic impact of Southern Africa’s public policy response to the management of covid-19 |
| title_full | Evaluating the economic impact of Southern Africa’s public policy response to the management of covid-19 |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating the economic impact of Southern Africa’s public policy response to the management of covid-19 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating the economic impact of Southern Africa’s public policy response to the management of covid-19 |
| title_short | Evaluating the economic impact of Southern Africa’s public policy response to the management of covid-19 |
| title_sort | evaluating the economic impact of southern africa s public policy response to the management of covid 19 |
| topic | COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020 -- Economic aspects COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020 -- Social aspects COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020 -- Management UCTD |
| url | https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/131642 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ditselamokomesabrina evaluatingtheeconomicimpactofsouthernafricaspublicpolicyresponsetothemanagementofcovid19 |