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An economic analysis of farm profitability related to new deciduous fruit cultivar choice
Thesis (MAgric) --Stellenbosch University, 2024.
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| Language: | en_ZA |
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Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University
2025
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| _version_ | 1867613907488604160 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Smit, Mareze Nelle |
| author2 | Hoffmann, Willem Hendrik |
| author_browse | Hoffmann, Willem Hendrik Smit, Mareze Nelle |
| author_facet | Hoffmann, Willem Hendrik Smit, Mareze Nelle |
| author_sort | Smit, Mareze Nelle |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | Stellenbosch University |
| description |
Thesis (MAgric) --Stellenbosch University, 2024. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/131912 |
| institution | Stellenbosch University (South Africa) |
| language | en_ZA |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:43:36.390Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| publisherStr | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| spelling | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/131912 An economic analysis of farm profitability related to new deciduous fruit cultivar choice Smit, Mareze Nelle Hoffmann, Willem Hendrik Labuschagne, Iwan Stellenbosch University. Faculty of AgriSciences. Dept. of Agricultural Economics. Fruit trade -- Western Cape (South Africa) Fruit -- Economic aspects -- Western Cape (South Africa) UCTD Thesis (MAgric) --Stellenbosch University, 2024. ENGLISH SUMMARY: South African deciduous fruit production makes a significant economic contribution both to the Western Cape Province and the national agricultural sector. The profitability of this industry affects the livelihoods of many South Africans. Typical to commercial agriculture, deciduous fruit production is exposed to various forms of risk of both natural and social origin. Cultivar diversification is a prominent form of risk management employed by deciduous fruit producers. Varying phenological cycles, i.e. time of flowering and harvest, of different cultivars mitigate risk in both the production and market environment. Although market fluctuations and adverse natural conditions heavily impact the performance of a single cultivar, a diversified cultivar composition ensures the resilience of the farm system. Choosing a cultivar composition suited to managing the specific risk profile of a farming operation, is vital to profitability. Deciduous fruits are perennial crops requiring a substantial initial capital investment. This demands consideration of all aspects of the environments influencing cultivar success over the long-term. Apples (Malus domestica Borkh.) and Japanese plums (Prunus salicina Lindl.) are the crops used in this study. A coherent decision-making process that acknowledges the complexity of all that influences cultivar profitability of apples and plums had not yet been developed in South Africa. This study set out to determine which profitability drivers for apple and plum cultivars are necessary to consider during a planting decision in specific South African production environments. Accommodation of complexity and uncertainty was necessary to satisfy the research problem. A systems approach in the form of a whole-farm budget model met this requirement. Four different models were constructed, namely for apples in the Koue Bokkeveld, apples in Elgin, Japanese plums near the town of Robertson, and Japanese plums in the Boland near the town of Wellington, respectively. Model compilation had to consider the unique challenges of the South African deciduous fruit industry. South Africa’s climate and geographical location from main markets creates distinct production and logistical trials. Therefore, a participatory modelling method was used, wherein 27 industry stakeholders participated in interviews regarding the problem of cultivar choice. Discussions were guided by established literature. After model construction, model validation took place in the form of a multidisciplinary focus group discussion held for apples and plums, respectively. A group of industry stakeholders with diverse backgrounds were asked to evaluate and confirm the logic supporting the incorporation of each cultivar decision-making consideration in the models. Participants of the two discussion groups had to reach consensus regarding the validity of the logical basis of the model. Consensus was achieved in both cases. The study concluded that a cultivar’s adaptability to an area’s climate is essential for a cultivar to be profitable. Furthermore, a wide range of marketing opportunities lowers the risk associated with profit generation. Participants in this study in both the participatory model development phase and the group discussions strongly agreed that any cultivar characteristic impacting income generation, was far more important in the decision-making process than characteristics affecting production cost. AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Suid-Afrikaanse sagtevrugteproduksie lewer ‘n beduidende ekonomiese bydrae tot beide die Wes-Kaapse en nasionale landbousektor. Die winsgewendheid van hierdie bedryf affekteer die ekonomiese welstand van vele Suid-Afrikaners. Tipies aan kommersiële landbou, word sagtevrugteproduksie aan verskeie vorme van risiko van beide natuurlike en sosiale oorsprong blootgestel. Kultivardiversifisering is ‘n beduidende vorm van risikobestuur wat deur sagtevrugteprodusente gebruik word. Die diverse fenologiese siklusse, d.w.s. blomtyd en oestyd van verskillende kultivars, verminder die risiko wat in beide die produksie- en markomgewing bestaan. Alhoewel markskommelinge en ongunstige natuurlike toestande ‘n enorme impak het op ‘n enkele kultivar, verseker ‘n gediversifiseerde kultivarsamestelling die veerkragtigheid van die plaasstelsel. Die keuse van watter kultivarsamestelling geskik is om die spesifieke risikoprofiel van ‘n boerdery te bestuur, is noodsaaklik vir winsgewendheid. Sagtevrugte is meerjarige gewasse wat ‘n aansienlike aanvanklike kapitaalbelegging vereis. Dit vereis die inagneming van alle aspekte van die omgewing wat kultivarsukses op die lange duur beinvloed. Appels (Malus domestica Borkh.) en Japannese pruime (Prunus salicina Lindl.) is die gewasse wat in hierdie studie gebruik word. ‘n Samehangende besluitnemingsproses, wat die kompleksiteit van alles wat kultivarwinsgewendheid van appels en pruime beinvloed in ag neem, is nog nie tot op hede in Suid-Afrika ontwikkel nie. Hierdie studie se hoofdoel was om vas te stel watter winsgewendheidsdrywers van appel- en pruimkultivars nodig is om te oorweeg tydens ‘n aanplantingsbesluit in spesifieke Suid-Afrikaanse produksie-omgewings. Die inagneming van kompleksiteit en onsekerheid was nodig om die navorsingsprobleem te bevredig. ‘n Stelselsbenadering in die vorm van ‘n heelplaasbegrotingsmodel het aan hierdie vereistes voldoen. Vier verskillende modelle is saamgestel, naamlik vir appels in die Koue Bokkeveld, appels in Elgin, Japannese pruime naby die dorp Robertson en Japannese pruime in die Boland naby die dorp Wellington, onderskeidelik. Modelsamestelling moes die unieke uitdagings van die Suid-Afrikaanse sagtevrugtebedryf in ag neem. Suid-Afrika se klimaat en geografiese ligging vanaf primere markte skep beduidende logistieke en produksie-uitdagings. Daarom is ‘n deelnemende modelleringsmetode gebruik, waar 27 bedryfslede deelgeneem het aan onderhoude aangaande die probleem van kultivarkeuse. Besprekings is gelei deur gevestigde literatuur. Na modelkonstruksie het die bevestiging en validering van die model plaasgevind in die vorm van ‘n multidissiplinere fokusgroepbespreking wat, vir apples en pruime, onderskeidelik, gehou is. ‘n Groep belanghebbendes in die bedryf met uiteenlopende agtergronde is gevra om die logika wat die inkorporering van elke kultivarbesluitnemingsoorweging in die model ondersteun, te evalueer en bevestig. Deelnemers van die twee besprekingsgroepe moes konsensus bereik oor die geldigheid van die logiese basis van die model. Konsensus is in beide gevalle bereik. Die studie het tot die gevolgtrekking gekom dat ‘n kultivar se aanpasbaarheid tot die klimaat van ‘n area noodsaaklik is vir ‘n kultivar om winsgewend te wees. Verder verlaag ‘n wye reeks bemarkingsgeleenthede die risiko verbonde aan winsgenerering. Deelnemers aan hierdie studie in beide die deelnemende model-ontwikkelingsfase en die groepsbesprekings het sterk saamgestem dat enige kultivar-eienskap wat inkomste-generering beinvloed veel belangriker is in die besluitnemingsproses as eienskappe wat produksiekoste beinvloed. Masters 2025-04-08T12:53:21Z 2025-04-08T12:53:21Z 2024-12 Thesis https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/131912 en_ZA Stellenbosch University xii, 206 pages : illustrations, maps, includes annexures application/pdf Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| spellingShingle | Fruit trade -- Western Cape (South Africa) Fruit -- Economic aspects -- Western Cape (South Africa) UCTD Smit, Mareze Nelle An economic analysis of farm profitability related to new deciduous fruit cultivar choice |
| title | An economic analysis of farm profitability related to new deciduous fruit cultivar choice |
| title_full | An economic analysis of farm profitability related to new deciduous fruit cultivar choice |
| title_fullStr | An economic analysis of farm profitability related to new deciduous fruit cultivar choice |
| title_full_unstemmed | An economic analysis of farm profitability related to new deciduous fruit cultivar choice |
| title_short | An economic analysis of farm profitability related to new deciduous fruit cultivar choice |
| title_sort | economic analysis of farm profitability related to new deciduous fruit cultivar choice |
| topic | Fruit trade -- Western Cape (South Africa) Fruit -- Economic aspects -- Western Cape (South Africa) UCTD |
| url | https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/131912 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT smitmarezenelle aneconomicanalysisoffarmprofitabilityrelatedtonewdeciduousfruitcultivarchoice AT smitmarezenelle economicanalysisoffarmprofitabilityrelatedtonewdeciduousfruitcultivarchoice |