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Predictive modelling of vehicle speeds while traversing modern roundabouts based on geometric design characteristics
Arries, J. T. 2025. Predictive modelling of vehicle speeds while traversing modern roudabouts based on geometric design characteristics. Unpublished doctoral dissertation. Stellenbosch: Stellenbosch Univeristy [online]. Available: https://scholar.sun.ac.za/items/b566a71f-76a4-4a74-b740-d53a78ce0e30
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Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University
2025
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| _version_ | 1867614019065479168 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Arries, Jared Tyrell |
| author2 | Bruwer, Megan Melissa |
| author_browse | Arries, Jared Tyrell Bruwer, Megan Melissa |
| author_facet | Bruwer, Megan Melissa Arries, Jared Tyrell |
| author_sort | Arries, Jared Tyrell |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | Stellenbosch University |
| description | Arries, J. T. 2025. Predictive modelling of vehicle speeds while traversing modern roudabouts based on geometric design characteristics. Unpublished doctoral dissertation. Stellenbosch: Stellenbosch Univeristy [online]. Available: https://scholar.sun.ac.za/items/b566a71f-76a4-4a74-b740-d53a78ce0e30 |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/132047 |
| institution | Stellenbosch University (South Africa) |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:45:22.846Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| publisherStr | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| spelling | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/132047 Predictive modelling of vehicle speeds while traversing modern roundabouts based on geometric design characteristics Arries, Jared Tyrell Bruwer, Megan Melissa Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Engineering. Dept. of Civil Engineering. Automobiles -- Speed Traffic circles -- Design and construction Roads -- Interchanges and intersections Traffic engineering Traffic safety UCTD Arries, J. T. 2025. Predictive modelling of vehicle speeds while traversing modern roudabouts based on geometric design characteristics. Unpublished doctoral dissertation. Stellenbosch: Stellenbosch Univeristy [online]. Available: https://scholar.sun.ac.za/items/b566a71f-76a4-4a74-b740-d53a78ce0e30 Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2025. ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Roundabouts are increasingly preferred over traditional signalised and stop-controlled intersections due to their enhanced safety performance, primarily achieved by reducing conflict points and enforcing lower vehicle speeds through successive reverse curves. To ensure these benefits, accurate tools for assessing vehicle speed reduction are essential for roundabout design. Current international methodologies for speed estimation in roundabouts rely on iterative approaches involving sketches of potential fastest and entry paths, which introduce subjective variability and often yield inconsistent estimates for maximum attainable vehicle speeds through roundabouts. These limitations highlight the need for alternative, empirical methods that offer precision and consistency. This dissertation addresses this gap by proposing alternative, empirical methodologies grounded in realworld data to improve the precision of speed estimates at roundabouts. The study examines geometric features and upstream speeds that statistically impact maximum attainable vehicle speeds at entry, circulating, and exit points for left-turn and straight movements through roundabouts. Empirical multivariate regression models are developed to replace subjective judgment with objective criteria, yielding more reliable speed estimates. Findings reveal complex interdependencies between geometric features and vehicle speeds, particularly at entry points, where traditional models face notable limitations. To overcome these challenges, the research proposes and evaluates neural network models, capitalising on their capacity to capture intricate, non-linear relationships between predictors and thereby enhancing speed estimation accuracy, especially at roundabout entry points. The findings reveal that empirical models, both regression and neural network-based, are able to produce enhanced speed estimation models at roundabouts. This research proposes novel methodologies for speed estimation, marking an advancement in the application of empirical regression and neural networks to capture intricate relationships within traffic engineering and transportation planning. Although focused on roundabout speeds, these methodologies demonstrate the broader potential of data-driven models for quantifying complex relationships in traffic engineering between road geometry and operational speeds. This work also contributes a guideline for evaluating speeds and performance metrics at roundabouts, advocating for empirical data-based models to deepen understanding of complex dynamics in traffic and transportation systems. These methodologies demonstrate how empirical, data-driven approaches can significantly advance intersection design and safety. AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Geen opsomming beskikbaar. Doctoral 2025-05-21T06:39:27Z 2025-05-21T06:39:27Z 2025-03 Thesis https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/132047 Stellenbosch University xvii, 153 pages : illustrations application/pdf Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| spellingShingle | Automobiles -- Speed Traffic circles -- Design and construction Roads -- Interchanges and intersections Traffic engineering Traffic safety UCTD Arries, Jared Tyrell Predictive modelling of vehicle speeds while traversing modern roundabouts based on geometric design characteristics |
| title | Predictive modelling of vehicle speeds while traversing modern roundabouts based on geometric design characteristics |
| title_full | Predictive modelling of vehicle speeds while traversing modern roundabouts based on geometric design characteristics |
| title_fullStr | Predictive modelling of vehicle speeds while traversing modern roundabouts based on geometric design characteristics |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predictive modelling of vehicle speeds while traversing modern roundabouts based on geometric design characteristics |
| title_short | Predictive modelling of vehicle speeds while traversing modern roundabouts based on geometric design characteristics |
| title_sort | predictive modelling of vehicle speeds while traversing modern roundabouts based on geometric design characteristics |
| topic | Automobiles -- Speed Traffic circles -- Design and construction Roads -- Interchanges and intersections Traffic engineering Traffic safety UCTD |
| url | https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/132047 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT arriesjaredtyrell predictivemodellingofvehiclespeedswhiletraversingmodernroundaboutsbasedongeometricdesigncharacteristics |