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Analysis of road traffic crashes as a result of human factors on South Africa’s national route 3 (N3)
Ximba, L. 2025. Analysis of Road Traffic Crashes as a Result of Human Factors on South Africa’s National Route 3 (N3). Unpublished masters thesis. Stellenbosch: Stellenbosch University [online]. Available: https://scholar.sun.ac.za/items/68e5c841-207a-4cf3-b01c-8dda0d247697
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University
2025
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| _version_ | 1867613907656376320 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Ximba, Londeka |
| author2 | Sinclair, Marion |
| author_browse | Sinclair, Marion Ximba, Londeka |
| author_facet | Sinclair, Marion Ximba, Londeka |
| author_sort | Ximba, Londeka |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | Stellenbosch University |
| description | Ximba, L. 2025. Analysis of Road Traffic Crashes as a Result of Human Factors on South Africa’s National Route 3 (N3). Unpublished masters thesis. Stellenbosch: Stellenbosch University [online]. Available: https://scholar.sun.ac.za/items/68e5c841-207a-4cf3-b01c-8dda0d247697 |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/132302 |
| institution | Stellenbosch University (South Africa) |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:43:36.390Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| publisherStr | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| spelling | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/132302 Analysis of road traffic crashes as a result of human factors on South Africa’s national route 3 (N3) Ximba, Londeka Sinclair, Marion Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Engineering. Dept. of Civil Engineering. Traffic accidents -- South Africa Roads -- South Africa -- Safety measures Traffic fatalities Traffic accidents -- South Africa -- Statistics UCTD Ximba, L. 2025. Analysis of Road Traffic Crashes as a Result of Human Factors on South Africa’s National Route 3 (N3). Unpublished masters thesis. Stellenbosch: Stellenbosch University [online]. Available: https://scholar.sun.ac.za/items/68e5c841-207a-4cf3-b01c-8dda0d247697 Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2025. ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Estimates from the World Health Organization indicate that road traffic crashes result in approximately 1.35 million deaths globally each year. Additionally, another 50 million people suffer non-fatal injuries. More than half of these fatalities involve vulnerable road users, including pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists. Developing countries experience a disproportionate impact, with 93% of road crash fatalities occurring in low- and middle-income nations (WHO, 2021). This thesis examines the role of human factors in road traffic crashes and fatalities along the N3 Toll Route in South Africa. An analysis of over 13,000 crashes from 2011 to 2022 revealed that human factors were responsible for 71.9% of incidents, underscoring their critical impact on crash causation. The study identified three key crash types: vehicle rollovers (24.1%), vehicles leaving the road (21.5%), and head-tail collisions (17.4%). Notably, pedestrian fatalities represented 20.5% of the total fatalities, highlighting the vulnerability of non-motorized road users. Crashes occurring at night and in the northbound direction were disproportionately higher than those occurring during the day and in the southbound direction. The study employs a logistic regression model to analyse data collected from road traffic reports on the N3 Toll Route. The results indicate that road users under the influence of substances are significantly more likely to be involved in crashes, as are individuals engaged in attempted hijackings and those executing U-turns. Specific behaviours, such as making U-turns and losing control of the vehicle, are significant predictors of crash severity. U-turns increase the likelihood of a serious or fatal crash by 4.6 times, whereas losing control elevates the risk by 1.2 times. Association Rule Mining further linked high-risk behaviours—such as impaired driving and reckless actions—to increased crash severity. These findings highlight the need for targeted interventions within the Safe System Approach. Recommended measures include improving infrastructure (e.g., signage, barriers), implementing stricter speed management, enhancing driver training, maintaining vehicles, and launching public awareness campaigns. A multi-sectoral strategy that incorporates enforcement, education, and environmental modifications is essential to achieving Vision Zero—a goal of reducing road traffic fatalities and serious injuries. This research provided a framework for addressing human-factor-related road safety challenges on the N3 and beyond. AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die tesis met die titel "Analise van Padverkeerongelukke as gevolg van Menslike Faktore op Suid-Afrika se Nasionale Roete 3 (N3)" ondersoek die rol van menslike faktore in padverkeerongelukke langs die N3 Tolroete in Suid-Afrika. Dit beklemtoon hoe menslike gedrag, insluitend aksies soos spoed, afleibare bestuur, en bestuur onder invloed, beduidend bydra tot ongelukke en sterftes. 'n Analise van meer as 13,000 ongelukke van 2011 tot 2022 toon aan dat menslike faktore verantwoordelik was vir 71.9% van hierdie voorvalle. Die algemeenste soorte ongelukke sluit voertuigrollemiddels, voertuie wat die pad verlaat, en kop-staart botsings in. Persone, wat 'n beduidende kwesbaarheid verteenwoordig, het 20.5% van alle sterftes uitgemaak. Substansie misbruik en risikogedrag, soos U-draaie, is beduidende voorspellers van die erns van die ongeluk. Ongelukke kom meer gereeld snags voor, veral in die noordwaartse rigting, in vergelyking met daglig voorvalle. Die tesis gebruik logistieke regressie en assosiasie-reëlsmyn om hierdie faktore te ondersoek en stel geteikende intervensies voor binne die Safe System-benadering om padverkeersonlukksterftes te verminder. Dit sluit die verbetering van infrastruktuur, die handhawing van streng spoedgrense, en die bevordering van bestuurderopleiding en voertuigonderhoudprogramme in. Deur mensfoutverwante oorsake te ondersoek en omvattende, multi-sektoraal benaderings voor te stel, beoog die navorsing om by te dra tot die vermindering van padverkeersonlukkes en sterftes, en sluit dit aan by Suid-Afrika se Vision Zero en breër padveiligheidsdoelwitte. Masters 2025-06-03T08:09:14Z 2025-06-03T08:09:14Z 2025-03 Thesis https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/132302 en Stellenbosch University xii, 129 pages : illustrations application/pdf Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| spellingShingle | Traffic accidents -- South Africa Roads -- South Africa -- Safety measures Traffic fatalities Traffic accidents -- South Africa -- Statistics UCTD Ximba, Londeka Analysis of road traffic crashes as a result of human factors on South Africa’s national route 3 (N3) |
| title | Analysis of road traffic crashes as a result of human factors on South Africa’s national route 3 (N3) |
| title_full | Analysis of road traffic crashes as a result of human factors on South Africa’s national route 3 (N3) |
| title_fullStr | Analysis of road traffic crashes as a result of human factors on South Africa’s national route 3 (N3) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of road traffic crashes as a result of human factors on South Africa’s national route 3 (N3) |
| title_short | Analysis of road traffic crashes as a result of human factors on South Africa’s national route 3 (N3) |
| title_sort | analysis of road traffic crashes as a result of human factors on south africa s national route 3 n3 |
| topic | Traffic accidents -- South Africa Roads -- South Africa -- Safety measures Traffic fatalities Traffic accidents -- South Africa -- Statistics UCTD |
| url | https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/132302 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ximbalondeka analysisofroadtrafficcrashesasaresultofhumanfactorsonsouthafricasnationalroute3n3 |