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The Economy-wide impacts of climate-induced grain production changes in South Africa
Thesis (MAgric)--Stellenbosch University, 2025.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | en_ZA |
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Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University
2025
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| _version_ | 1867613772175114240 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Pule, Puleng Moremi |
| author2 | Punt, Cecilia |
| author_browse | Pule, Puleng Moremi Punt, Cecilia |
| author_facet | Punt, Cecilia Pule, Puleng Moremi |
| author_sort | Pule, Puleng Moremi |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | Stellenbosch University |
| description | Thesis (MAgric)--Stellenbosch University, 2025. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/132490 |
| institution | Stellenbosch University (South Africa) |
| language | en_ZA |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:41:26.849Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| publisherStr | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| spelling | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/132490 The Economy-wide impacts of climate-induced grain production changes in South Africa Pule, Puleng Moremi Punt, Cecilia Stellenbosch University. Faculty of AgriSciences. Dept. of Agricultural Economics. Agriculture -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa Agriculture -- Climatic factors -- South Africa Crops and climate -- South Africa Climate changes -- South Africa UCTD Thesis (MAgric)--Stellenbosch University, 2025. Pule, P. M. 2025. The Economy-Wide Impacts of Climate-Induced Grain Production Changes in South Africa. Unpublished masters thesis. Stellenbosch: Stellenbosch University [online]. Available: https://scholar.sun.ac.za/items/1a86d7b5-f7df-4b1c-8902-ce6f4ba53382 ENGLISH SUMMARY: This study investigates the economy-wide impacts of climate-induced dryland grain production changes in South Africa, focusing on the El Niño and La Niña phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. The research integrates findings from Bradshaw et al. (2022) to derive productivity shocks, applying them within a static Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated with the 2014 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). Three scenarios are analysed: El Niño (SIM1), characterised by drought-induced productivity declines; the baseline scenario, representing the neutral phase of the ENSO cycle; and La Niña (SIM2), reflecting improved productivity under favourable conditions. These scenarios explore the impacts of climate-induced grain production changes on output, prices, trade, resource use, and macroeconomic indicators. The results reveal that El Niño-induced events reduce grain output, increase domestic prices, and cause greater trade imbalances, driven by heightened import dependency to meet domestic demand. The magnitude of El Niño’s impact is more severe compared to La Niña, which, while positive, results in moderated productivity gains due to rainfall that is generally ideal but at times excessive. The spillover effects are most evident in grain and grain-related industries such as milling and starches, where production contractions and price increases are more pronounced during El Niño events. While climate-induced production changes also impact other primary agricultural industries, such as fruits, vegetables, and other crops, this study isolates the grain industry to focus on the spillover effects across industries. In contrast, other industries demonstrate relative stability, largely due more diverse input structures that buffer against the direct impacts of El Niño events. These findings underscore the differential magnitude of impacts across industries, highlighting the grain industry’s heightened sensitivity to El Niño events. The heightened sensitivity highlights the importance of forward-thinking planning strategies, focusing on enhancing trade networks, streamlining administrative processes, and optimising resource allocation to address the economic pressures posed by El Niño and La Niña events. By acknowledging the finite nature of natural resources, the research prioritises sustainability-focused economic models over growth-centric approaches, offering a robust framework to support resilience and insights in South Africa’s grain industry and the broader economy. AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie ondersoek die ekonomiese-wye impak van klimaat-geinduseerde droeland graanproduksie veranderinge in Suid-Afrika, met die fokus op die El Niño en La Niña fases van die El Niño-Suidelike Ossillasie (ENSO) siklus. Die navorsing integreer bevindinge van Bradshaw et al. (2022) om produktiwiteitskokke af te lei, deur dit toe te pas binne 'n statiese Berkenbare Algemene Ewewigsmodel (CGE model) wat gekalibreer is met die 2014 Sosiale Rekening Matriks (SAM). Drie scenario's word ontleed: El Niño (SIM1), gekenmerk deur droogte-geinduseerde produktiwiteitsafnames; die basislyn-scenario, wat die neutrale fase van die ENSO-siklus voorstel; en La Niña (SIM2), wat verbeterde produktiwiteit onder gunstige toestande weerspieel. Hierdie scenario's ondersoek die impak van klimaat-geinduseerde graanproduksieveranderinge op uitset, pryse, handel, hulpbrongebruik en makro-ekonomiese aanwysers. Die resultate toon dat El Niño-geinduseerde gebeure graanproduksie verminder, binnelandse pryse verhoog en groter handelswanbalanse veroorsaak, aangedryf deur verhoogde invoerafhanklikheid om aan binnelandse vraag te voldoen. Die omvang van El Niño se impak is ernstiger in vergelyking met La Niña, wat, alhoewel dit positief is, tot gematigde produktiwiteitstoename lei as gevolg van reenval wat oor die algemeen ideaal is, maar soms buitensporig is. Die oorvloei-effekte is die duidelikste in graan- en graanverwante bedrywe soos meel en stysels, waar produksie-inkrimpings en prysstygings meer prominent is tydens El Niño-geleenthede. Terwyl klimaat-geinduseerde produksieveranderinge ook ander primere landboubedrywe, soos vrugte, groente en ander gewasse, beinvloed, isoleer hierdie studie die graanbedryf om te fokus op die oorvloei-effekte oor bedrywe heen. Daarteenoor toon ander nywerhede relatiewe stabiliteit, hoofsaaklik as gevolg van meer diverse insetstrukture wat buffer teen die direkte impak van El Niño-gebeure. Hierdie bevindinge beklemtoon die verkillende omvang van impakte op nywerhede, wat die graanbedryf se verhoogde sensitiwiteit vir El Niño-gebeure beklemtoon. Die verhoogde sensitiwiteit beklemtoon die belangrikheid van strategiese beplanning, wat fokus op die verbetering van handelsnetwerke, die vaartbelyning van administratiewe prosesse en die optimalisering van hulpbrontoewysing om die ekonomiese druk wat deur El Niño- en La Niña-gebeure gestel word, aan te spreek. Deur die beperkte aard van natuurlike hulpbronne te erken, prioritiseer die navorsing ekonomiese modelle wat op volhoubaarheid gerig is bo groeigesentreerde benaderings, om ’n soliede raamwerk te bied om veerkragtigheid en insigte in Suid-Afrika se graanbedryf en die breer ekonomie te ondersteun. Masters 2025-06-10T05:34:31Z 2025-06-10T05:34:31Z 2025-03 Thesis https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/132490 en_ZA Stellenbosch University x, 123 pages : illustrations, includes annexures application/pdf Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| spellingShingle | Agriculture -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa Agriculture -- Climatic factors -- South Africa Crops and climate -- South Africa Climate changes -- South Africa UCTD Pule, Puleng Moremi The Economy-wide impacts of climate-induced grain production changes in South Africa |
| title | The Economy-wide impacts of climate-induced grain production changes in South Africa |
| title_full | The Economy-wide impacts of climate-induced grain production changes in South Africa |
| title_fullStr | The Economy-wide impacts of climate-induced grain production changes in South Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Economy-wide impacts of climate-induced grain production changes in South Africa |
| title_short | The Economy-wide impacts of climate-induced grain production changes in South Africa |
| title_sort | economy wide impacts of climate induced grain production changes in south africa |
| topic | Agriculture -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa Agriculture -- Climatic factors -- South Africa Crops and climate -- South Africa Climate changes -- South Africa UCTD |
| url | https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/132490 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT pulepulengmoremi theeconomywideimpactsofclimateinducedgrainproductionchangesinsouthafrica AT pulepulengmoremi economywideimpactsofclimateinducedgrainproductionchangesinsouthafrica |