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“Four-sight”: an application of futures techniques to develop emerging economy responses to the Fourth Industrial Revolution
Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2025.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University
2025
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| _version_ | 1867614005840838656 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Bosch, Rafeeq Allie |
| author2 | Roux, Andre |
| author_browse | Bosch, Rafeeq Allie Roux, Andre |
| author_facet | Roux, Andre Bosch, Rafeeq Allie |
| author_sort | Bosch, Rafeeq Allie |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | Stellenbosch University |
| description | Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2025. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/134525 |
| institution | Stellenbosch University (South Africa) |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:45:09.986Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| publisherStr | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| spelling | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/134525 “Four-sight”: an application of futures techniques to develop emerging economy responses to the Fourth Industrial Revolution Bosch, Rafeeq Allie Roux, Andre Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. University of Stellenbosch Business School. Technological innovations -- Economic aspects -- Developing countries Information technology -- Economic aspects -- Developing countries Globalization -- Economic aspects -- Developing countries Economic forecasting -- Developing countries Technological innovations -- Management -- Developing countries UCTD Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2025. Bosch, R. A. 2025. “Four-sight”: An Application of Futures Techniques to Develop Emerging Economy Responses to the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Unpublished doctoral dissertation. Stellenbosch: Stellenbosch University [online]. Available: https://scholar.sun.ac.za/items/adc3833d-b28b-495a-8e2f-08b9aa5ebe31 ENGLISH SUMMARY: This research study investigated three central ideas. First is that the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) brings with it the possibility for emerging economy nations to significantly reposition themselves on the world stage through their participation in and shaping of the 4IR. Second is that there exists a set of common traits possessed by those emerging economy nations that will ultimately succeed in realising that possibility, and importantly, that it is possible to divine those common traits. Third is that futures studies techniques and mindsets can help those emerging economies precipitate that transformation. The research proceeded through a combination of a literature review and fieldwork practice. A systematic literature review was conducted on seven topics underpinning the central ideas in this research. It produced several insights and findings which would go on to inform the design of fieldwork for this research. The review also uncovered grey literature artefacts which would be useful for contextualising the field research activities conducted subsequently. However, it was also found that there was no academic literature that comprehensively addresses the research problem about what role futures studies can play in facilitating a preferred future for emerging economy nations with respect to the 4IR. Three phases of fieldwork were conducted to design a 4IR Readiness Assessment Framework (4IR RAF) for emerging economy nations, to perform Country Readiness Assessments based on this 4IR RAF and to apply futures studies techniques to a test case and observe their impact. A Delphi study was conducted which produced a 29-Factor 4IR RAF. This 4IR RAF performed favourably when compared to four other models encountered in grey literature. Country Readiness Assessments conducted using this 4IR RAF showed that South Korea and China demonstrate the highest readiness relative to other emerging economy nations. Pakistan, Nigeria and Bangladesh demonstrate the lowest readiness. South Africa emerged as an ideal test case for the futures work. The detailed assessment for South Africa identified 16 factors where the country demonstrated low readiness, according to the 4IR RAF. A scenario planning exercise centred around these 16 factors was conducted. It produced four possible scenarios for South Africa’s future in the 4IR over the next 20 years. The effectiveness of the scenario planning experience to influence future decisions intended to redress South Africa’s areas of low readiness was studied. It was found to be only potentially impactful due to constraints in the setup of the scenario planning exercise. A causal layered analysis (CLA) was performed on the current discourse around the 4IR in South Africa. An underlying myth called “Technology’s Promised Land” was determined to presently be driving the general discussion about the 4IR in South Africa. The scenario work conducted during this study inspired an alternative myth called “Restorative Technology Garden”. This alternate myth offered a vision that better embodied elements of South African values, culture and history. Recommendations for further investigation of the ideas under study have emerged from all three phases of the fieldwork. At the close of the study, a real opportunity presented itself to raise the effectiveness of the scenario planning and causal layered analysis exercises performed during this study. This opportunity should be exploited in a subsequent round of research. AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Geen opsomming beskikbaar. Doctoral 2025-12-12T08:05:31Z 2025-12-12T08:05:31Z 2025-12 Thesis https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/134525 en Stellenbosch University xx, 313 pages : illustrations, includes annexures application/pdf Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| spellingShingle | Technological innovations -- Economic aspects -- Developing countries Information technology -- Economic aspects -- Developing countries Globalization -- Economic aspects -- Developing countries Economic forecasting -- Developing countries Technological innovations -- Management -- Developing countries UCTD Bosch, Rafeeq Allie “Four-sight”: an application of futures techniques to develop emerging economy responses to the Fourth Industrial Revolution |
| title | “Four-sight”: an application of futures techniques to develop emerging economy responses to the Fourth Industrial Revolution |
| title_full | “Four-sight”: an application of futures techniques to develop emerging economy responses to the Fourth Industrial Revolution |
| title_fullStr | “Four-sight”: an application of futures techniques to develop emerging economy responses to the Fourth Industrial Revolution |
| title_full_unstemmed | “Four-sight”: an application of futures techniques to develop emerging economy responses to the Fourth Industrial Revolution |
| title_short | “Four-sight”: an application of futures techniques to develop emerging economy responses to the Fourth Industrial Revolution |
| title_sort | four sight an application of futures techniques to develop emerging economy responses to the fourth industrial revolution |
| topic | Technological innovations -- Economic aspects -- Developing countries Information technology -- Economic aspects -- Developing countries Globalization -- Economic aspects -- Developing countries Economic forecasting -- Developing countries Technological innovations -- Management -- Developing countries UCTD |
| url | https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/134525 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT boschrafeeqallie foursightanapplicationoffuturestechniquestodevelopemergingeconomyresponsestothefourthindustrialrevolution |