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Investigating health policies in childhood obesity using system modelling
Thesis (MCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2025.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University
2025
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| _version_ | 1867613738911137792 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Callaghan, Hannah Julia |
| author2 | Potgieter, Linke |
| author_browse | Callaghan, Hannah Julia Potgieter, Linke |
| author_facet | Potgieter, Linke Callaghan, Hannah Julia |
| author_sort | Callaghan, Hannah Julia |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | Stellenbosch University |
| description | Thesis (MCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2025. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/134565 |
| institution | Stellenbosch University (South Africa) |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:40:55.520Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| publisherStr | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| spelling | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/134565 Investigating health policies in childhood obesity using system modelling Callaghan, Hannah Julia Potgieter, Linke Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Logistics. Childhood obesity -- South Africa Obesity in children -- South Africa Obesity -- Social aspects -- South Africa Obesity -- Epidemiology -- South Africa UCTD Thesis (MCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2025. Callaghan, H. J. 2025. Investigating health policies in childhood obesity using system modelling. Unpublished masters thesis. Stellenbosch: Stellenbosch University [online]. Available: https://scholar.sun.ac.za/items/066c54c5-5fb6-4b51-b968-2d154540a043 ENGLISH SUMMARY: Since 1990, global obesity rates have doubled. The 2023 World Obesity Federation’s Atlas predicts that within the next 12 years, half the world’s population will be overweight or obese. South Africa is not exempt to this growing crisis, as half of the country’s adult population already falls into these categories. Although obesity is often viewed as a condition in adulthood, a growing number of South African children are affected, with 13% classified as overweight or obese. Childhood obesity is a strong predictor of obesity in adulthood and is associated with an increased risk of chronic diseases. It has been shown that obesity can spread within social networks, due to the adoption of un-healthy habits through social learning. Building on this understanding, this research develops two mathematical models to examine obesity dynamics across different populations and BMI groups through the lense of epidemiological modelling. The first non-spatial model, formulated as a Susceptible - Infected - Susceptible model through a system of difference equations, was calibrated with South African data and validated using past studies on dynamics and prevalence of obesity, as well as surveys conducted with bariatric healthcare professionals. Sensitivity anal-ysis and simulation experiments were then used to explore the potential impact of prevention strategies, helping to identify where the focus of interventions for reducing childhood obesity in South Africa should be. The second spatial model frames obesity in South Africa as a metapopu-lation problem. The country can be regarded as spatially seperated due to the economic division present. Findings of both these models indicate that the transmission of habits between age groups, especially from adults to children, leads to an increase in obesity prevalence. Interventions that focus on these interactions should therefore be the focus. By reducing the transmission of unhealthy habits between adults and children to 0, up to a 100% decrease in obesity and overweight can be seen in children aged 0 to 4. By targetting the transmission of unhealthy habits between adults, a 70% decrease in obesity and overweight prevalence could result in all children under 15 years. The metapopulation model demonstrated the importance of accesability to healthy lifestyle factors such as healthy food and safe physical activity areas. AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Sedert 1990 het wereldwye vetsugsyfers verdubbel. Die 2023 Wereldvetsugfederasie se Atlas voorspel dat binne die volgende 12 jaar die helfte van die wereldbevolking oorgewig of vetsugtig sal wees. Suid-Afrika is nie vrygestel van hierdie groeiende krisis nie, aangesien die helfte van die land se volwasse bevolking reeds in hierdie kategoriee val. Alhoewel vetsug dikwels as ’n toestand van volwassenheid gesien word, word ’n toenemende aantal Suid-Afrikaanse kinders geraak, met 13% wat as oorgewig of vetsugtig geklassifiseer word. Kinderjare-vetsug is ’n sterk voorspeller van vetsug in volwassenheid en word geassosieer met ’n verhoogde risiko van chroniese siektes. Daar is bewys dat vetsug binne sosiale netwerke kan versprei weens die aanleer van ongesonde gewoontes deur sosiale leer. Op grond van hierdie begrip ontwikkel hierdie navorsing twee wiskundige modelle om vetsugdinamika oor verskillende bevolkings en BMI-groepe te ondersoek deur die lens van epidemiologiese modellering. Die eerste, nie-ruimtelike model, geformuleer as ’n Vatbaar – Besmet – Vatbaar-model deur ’n stelsel van verskillevergelykings, is met Suid-Afrikaanse data gekalibreer en gevalideer deur gebruik te maak van vorige studies oor die dinamika en voorkoms van vetsug, sowel as opnames wat saam met bariatriese gesondheidsorgpraktisyns uitgevoer is. Sensitiwiteitsanalise en simulasie-eksperimente is daarna gebruik om die moontlike impak van voorkomingsstrategiee te verken, wat gehelp het om te identifiseer waar die fokus van intervensies vir die vermindering van kinderjare-vetsug in Suid-Afrika moet wees. Die tweede, ruimtelike model raam vetsug in Suid-Afrika as ’n metabevolkingsprobleem. Die land kan as ruimtelik geskei beskou word weens die bestaande ekonomiese verdeling. Bevindings van beide hierdie modelle dui daarop dat die oordrag van gewoontes tussen ouderdomsgroepe, veral van volwassenes na kinders, lei tot ’n toename in die voorkoms van vetsug. Intervensies wat op hierdie interaksies fokus, behoort dus die kern te wees. Deur die oordrag van ongesonde gewoontes tussen volwassenes en kinders tot nul te verminder, kan ’n afname van tot 100% in vetsug en oorgewig by kinders van 0 tot 4 jaar gesien word. Deur die oordrag van ongesonde gewoontes tussen volwassenes te teiken, kan ’n 70% afname in die voorkoms van vetsug en oorgewig by alle kinders onder 15 jaar bereik word. Die metabevolkingsmodel het die belangrikheid van toeganklikheid tot gesonde leefstylfaktore, soos gesonde kos en veilige areas vir fisieke aktiwiteit, beklemtoon. Masters 2025-12-12T12:32:39Z 2025-12-12T12:32:39Z 2025-12 Thesis https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/134565 en Stellenbosch University xx, 123 pages : illustrations, includes annexures application/pdf Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| spellingShingle | Childhood obesity -- South Africa Obesity in children -- South Africa Obesity -- Social aspects -- South Africa Obesity -- Epidemiology -- South Africa UCTD Callaghan, Hannah Julia Investigating health policies in childhood obesity using system modelling |
| title | Investigating health policies in childhood obesity using system modelling |
| title_full | Investigating health policies in childhood obesity using system modelling |
| title_fullStr | Investigating health policies in childhood obesity using system modelling |
| title_full_unstemmed | Investigating health policies in childhood obesity using system modelling |
| title_short | Investigating health policies in childhood obesity using system modelling |
| title_sort | investigating health policies in childhood obesity using system modelling |
| topic | Childhood obesity -- South Africa Obesity in children -- South Africa Obesity -- Social aspects -- South Africa Obesity -- Epidemiology -- South Africa UCTD |
| url | https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/134565 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT callaghanhannahjulia investigatinghealthpoliciesinchildhoodobesityusingsystemmodelling |