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Quantifying the economic facilitating role of transport in South Africa : a sub-national analysis
Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2025.
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Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University
2025
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Knipe, Mienke |
| author2 | Krygsman, Stephan |
| author_browse | Knipe, Mienke Krygsman, Stephan |
| author_facet | Krygsman, Stephan Knipe, Mienke |
| author_sort | Knipe, Mienke |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | Stellenbosch University |
| description | Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2025. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/134661 |
| institution | Stellenbosch University (South Africa) |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:45:01.662Z |
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| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| publisherStr | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| spelling | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/134661 Quantifying the economic facilitating role of transport in South Africa : a sub-national analysis Knipe, Mienke Krygsman, Stephan Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Logistics. Transportation -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Transportation and state -- South Africa Economic development -- South Africa Infrastructure (Economics) -- South Africa UCTD Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2025. Knipe, M. 2025. Quantifying the economic facilitating role of transport in South Africa: a sub-national analysis. Unpublished doctoral dissertation. Stellenbosch: Stellenbosch University [online]. Available: https://scholar.sun.ac.za/items/aabe3094-003b-4706-9eb4-627c70bcbbde ENGLISH SUMMARY: Transportation has long been recognised as a cornerstone for economic development, yet the precise mechanisms and magnitude of its role in South Africa’s economy remain underexplored. South Africa, a country grappling with high unemployment, income inequality, and spatial disparities, presents a unique context to investigate how transportation interventions influence economic activity. This dissertation bridges knowledge gaps by quantifying the economic facilitating role of transport at a sub-national level, integrating variables such as travel time, cost, accessibility, and transport infrastructure. The research is motivated by the need to address South Africa’s systemic unemployment and transport inefficiencies, including exorbitant travel costs, prolonged commuting times, and inadequate access to reliable public transport. In fact, the science of transportation economics is concerned with the optimal use of transportation resources. The primary aim of this study is to empirically explore and quantify the economic activity associated with transport interventions across metro, urban, and rural areas and for households varying in its composition and nature. Five research questions guide this investigation, ranging from topics such as trade-offs in household expenditure budgets, policy implications of transport funding, and the differentiated economic impact of expanding various transport network types. The methodology adopts mostly a quantitative method approach, leveraging diverse and nationally representative datasets. These include the 2020 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the integration thereof with the 2018 CSIR Mesozone dataset to create spatial transport data at 50 km2. This enables granular insights into the transport-economic activity nexus. Another Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) dataset, the 2014/15 Living Conditions Survey (LCS) is used to inform fractional logit regression models to predict the expenditure trade-offs that different South African households would make if a policy objective of that limits household transport expenditure to 10% of total expenditure is achieved, and if expenditure on minibus taxi fares is halved. Additional regression analysis is employed to quantify associations and assess the adequacy of transport investments in the City of Cape Town per transport network type – road, formal and informal public transport. Key findings reveal nuanced relationships between economic activity and transport variables. High economic activity often coexists with elevated travel costs and time to jobs in metro areas, reflecting spatial job mismatches where individuals travel farther in search of better employment opportunities in South Africa. Conversely, shorter travel time and lower travel cost to essential services correlate with higher economic activity, emphasising the critical role of accessibility to shops and public transport interchanges. Transport expenditure significantly impacts household spending patterns; reducing travel cost could reallocate funds to essential needs like food and housing, particularly for low-income groups. However, mechanisms to lower the cost to the traveller should be weighed-up since mechanisms such as user-directed subsidisation and enforcement of existing price control legislation in the minibus taxi industry require an investigation of the practicality, merits and funding requirements compared to economic merit. In the metro of the City of Cape Town, formal public transport is found to be mostly adequate in low-income areas but insufficient in medium- to high-income areas, where congestion and emissions are pressing concerns – which concurs with other empirical research. This, despite high-income earners funding the majority of the government’s transport budget – as much as 12% of South Africans (high-income earners) funds about 60% of the national government’s revenue through income tax. This dissertation provides actionable insights for policymakers, including the need to recalibrate transport funding priorities, implement car-competitive public transport solutions, and to investigate mechanisms to reduce travel cost, aside from public transport provision. Moreover, it advocates for integrated transport and land-use planning to address spatial mismatches, and the promotion of localised job creation to reduce the congested travel demand to central business districts. This dissertation finds that cheaper, faster and reliable passenger transport in South Africa is unlikely the key ingredient to the current nature of the country’s unemployment rate – the highest in the world. Instead, the preconditions of job availability, skilled and willing labour force and favourable economic conditions are prerequisites to maximise the economic facilitating role of passenger transport – as inferred by the derived demand for transport. By not fulfilling in these prerequisites will likely results in the continued unidirectional causal relationship of economic growth to public transport investment, instead of the other way around. To this end, the dissertation agrees with the sentiment of Wilfred Owen (1964): “Transport then, is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for economic development”. AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Vervoer is lank reeds erken as 'n hoeksteen van ekonomiese ontwikkeling, maar die presiese meganismes en omvang van vervoer se rol in Suid-Afrika se ekonomie bly onvoldoende ondersoek. Suid-Afrika, 'n land wat worstel met hoe werkloosheid, inkomste-ongelykheid en ruimtelike ongelykhede, bied 'n unieke konteks om te ondersoek hoe vervoer ingrypings ekonomiese aktiwiteite beinvloed. Hierdie proefskrif oorbrug kennis gapings deur die ekonomiese fasiliterende rol van vervoer op sub-nasionale vlak te kwantifiseer, met integrasie van veranderlikes soos reistyd, reiskoste, toeganklikheid en vervoerinfrastruktuur. Die navorsing is gemotiveer deur die behoefte om Suid-Afrika se sistemiese werkloosheid en vervoer oneffektiwiteite aan te spreek, insluitend buitensporige reiskoste, langdurige pendel tye en onvoldoende toegang tot betroubare openbare vervoer. Inderdaad, die wetenskap van vervoerekonomie fokus op die optimale gebruik van vervoer hulpbronne. Die primere doel van hierdie studie is om empiries te ondersoek in te stel en te kwantifiseer hoe vervoer ingrypings ekonomiese aktiwiteit in metro-, stedelike en landelike gebiede beinvloed, asook hoe dit huishoudings van verskillende samestelling en aard raak. Vyf navorsing vrae rig hierdie ondersoek, wat onderwerpe dek soos die afwegings in huishoudelike besteding begrotings, beleid implikasies van vervoer besteding, en die gedifferensieerde ekonomiese impak van die uitbreiding van verskillende tipes vervoer netwerke. Die metodologie volg hoofsaaklik 'n kwantitatiewe benadering, met gebruik van uiteenlopende en nasionaal-verteenwoordigende datastelle. Dit sluit die 2020 ‘National Household Travel Survey’ (NHTS) in, wat geintegreer word met die 2018 CSIR Mesosone datastel om ruimtelike vervoer gegewens op 50 km² te skep. Dit maak gedetailleerde insigte oor die vervoer-ekonomiese aktiwiteit koppeling moontlik. Nog 'n Statistieke Suid-Afrika (StatsSA)-datastel, die 2014/15 ‘Living Conditions Survey’ (LCS), word gebruik om fraksionele logit-regressiemodelle te informeer. Die word dan gebruik om te voorspel hoe verskillende Suid-Afrikaanse huishoudings hul besteding keuses sou verander indien 'n beleid om huishoudelike vervoerkoste tot 10% van totale uitgawes te beperk bereik word, en indien minibus-taxi tariewe gehalveer word. Bykomende regressie-analises word aangewend om assosiasies te kwantifiseer en die voldoendheid van vervoer beleggings in die Stad Kaapstad per vervoer netwerk tipe – pad, formele en informele openbare vervoer – te evalueer. Belangrike bevindings onthul genuanseerde verhoudings tussen ekonomiese aktiwiteit en vervoer-veranderlikes. Hoe ekonomiese aktiwiteit gaan dikwels gepaard met hoe reiskoste en reistye na werkgeleenthede in metro gebiede, wat ruimtelike werk ongelykhede weerspieel waar individue verder reis vir beter werksgeleenthede. Omgekeerd, korreleer korter reistye en laer reiskoste na noodsaaklike dienste met hoer ekonomiese aktiwiteit, wat die kritieke rol van toeganklikheid tot winkels en openbare vervoer knooppunte beklemtoon. Vervoer uitgawes het 'n beduidende impak op huishoudelike besteding patrone; laer reiskoste kan fondse herlei na noodsaaklike behoeftes soos kos en behuising, veral vir lae-inkomstegroepe. Tog moet die meganismes om reiskoste vir die verbruiker te verlaag, oorweeg word, aangesien gebruikersgerigte subsidiering en prysbeheer in die minibus-taxi-industrie ‘n ondersoek verlang na praktiese uitvoerbaarheid en befondsing vereistes. In die metro, die Stad Kaapstad, word formele openbare vervoer meestal voldoende gevind in lae-inkomste areas, maar onvoldoende in medium- tot hoe-inkomste areas waar verkeersopeenhopings en motor-geproduseerde emissie ernstige bekommernisse is – soortgelyk aan die bevinding van ander empiriese navorsing. Dit is die geval ten spyte daarvan dat hoe-inkomstegroepe die meerderheid van die regering se vervoer besteding finansier – soveel as 12% van Suid-Afrikaners (hoofsaaklik die hoe-inkomstegroep) dra sowat 60% van die nasionale regering se inkomste by deur middel van inkomstebelasting. Hierdie proefskrif verskaf toepaslike insigte vir beleidmakers, insluitend die behoefte om vervoer besteding prioriteite te herkalibreer, motor-mededingende openbare vervoer oplossings te implementeer, en meganismes te ondersoek om reiskoste te verminder - afgesien van openbare vervoer voorsiening. Verder pleit dit vir geintegreerde vervoer- en grondgebruikbeplanning om ruimtelike ongelykhede aan te spreek en die bevordering van plaaslike werkskepping om die opeenhoping van die vraag na vervoer na sentrale sakegebiede te verminder. Hierdie proefskrif vind dat goedkoper, vinniger en betroubare passasiersvervoer waarskynlik nie die sleutel bestanddeel is om Suid-Afrika se werkloosheidsprobleem – die hoogste ter wereld – op te los nie. In plaas daarvan is die skep van werksgeleenthede, 'n vaardige en gewillige arbeidsmag, en gunstige ekonomiese toestande vereistes om die ekonomiese fasiliterende rol van passasiersvervoer te maksimeer – soos afgelei uit die afgeleide vraag na vervoer. Sonder hierdie voortsettinge sal die eenrigting-oorname van ekonomiese groei na openbare vervoer investering in Suid-Afrika waarskynlik voortduur, in plaas van andersom. Hierdie proefskrif ondersteun daarom die sentiment van Wilfred Owen (1964) [soos vertaal van Engels na Afrikaans]: "Vervoer is dus 'n nodige maar nie 'n voldoende voorwaarde vir ekonomiese ontwikkeling nie." Doctoral 2025-12-22T10:30:27Z 2025-12-22T10:30:27Z 2025-12 Thesis https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/134661 en Stellenbosch University xxi, 315 pages : illustrations, maps, includes annexures application/pdf Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| spellingShingle | Transportation -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Transportation and state -- South Africa Economic development -- South Africa Infrastructure (Economics) -- South Africa UCTD Knipe, Mienke Quantifying the economic facilitating role of transport in South Africa : a sub-national analysis |
| title | Quantifying the economic facilitating role of transport in South Africa : a sub-national analysis |
| title_full | Quantifying the economic facilitating role of transport in South Africa : a sub-national analysis |
| title_fullStr | Quantifying the economic facilitating role of transport in South Africa : a sub-national analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying the economic facilitating role of transport in South Africa : a sub-national analysis |
| title_short | Quantifying the economic facilitating role of transport in South Africa : a sub-national analysis |
| title_sort | quantifying the economic facilitating role of transport in south africa a sub national analysis |
| topic | Transportation -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Transportation and state -- South Africa Economic development -- South Africa Infrastructure (Economics) -- South Africa UCTD |
| url | https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/134661 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT knipemienke quantifyingtheeconomicfacilitatingroleoftransportinsouthafricaasubnationalanalysis |